Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

[metalman]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

In my opinion. If debt to GDP rise, like in the late half of the seventies, to let's say a higher level compared to GDP as compared to today. That's not debt deflation. If debt to GDP goes down, similar to the 1930-40-s, that's debt deflation. When there is the comparisons to Japan in 89, and debt deflation first bounce call, then that's a call for debt deflation and this to be a bear market rally, similar to the nikkei was then. That might be the case if the dow is headed lower, like dow 4000. But it might be the case, that dow is destined for a dow 11-12000 in the 2000-2016 era similar to dow 1000 in the 1965-1982, while debt to GDP at the same time rises, companied with stagflation. That's not debt deflation.

here we do not mix up debt deflation and money supply deflation or asset price deflation and commodity price deflation. we do not confuse deflation as japan experienced it since 1990 with the deflation spiral the usa had in the 1930s. using these terms so vaguely may work on mish's site but it's too primitive to work here.

you are frustrating to read. clearly you know a few things, but are unaware of just as much that you could know by reading the articles on this site. if you read and try to understand the material here on this site your views will be more interesting to us... adding to our knowledge. what you know plus what we know, is a net knowledge increase, but what you know minus what we know equals zero... that's why you're not getting traction here.

[nero3]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

here we do not mix up debt deflation and money supply deflation or asset price deflation and commodity price deflation. we do not confuse deflation as japan experienced it since 1990 with the deflation spiral the usa had in the 1930s. using these terms so vaguely may work on mish's site but it's too primitive to work here.

you are frustrating to read. clearly you know a few things, but are unaware of just as much that you could know by reading the articles on this site. if you read and try to understand the material here on this site your views will be more interesting to us... adding to our knowledge. what you know plus what we know, is a net knowledge increase, but what you know minus what we know equals zero... that's why you're not getting traction here.

We, we we, why not write your own opinions? You have yourself mentioned the seventies as a debt deflation phase if I remember correct, but that's not true. The seventies was not a debt deflation phase. This reminds me of a place I once went to apply for work. It was like, we use uniforms here, you don't mind that do you?

[metalman]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

We, we we, why not write your own opinions? You have yourself mentioned the seventies as a debt deflation phase if I remember correct, but that's not true. The seventies was not a debt deflation phase. This reminds me of a place I once went to apply for work. It was like, we use uniforms here, you don't mind that do you?

i am not going to revert back to the dark ages when i did not know that the fire econ existed, that asset price inflation is a goal of monetary policy, that debt can be deflated against the rising nominal cash flows, and so on. and i don't think i'm taking liberties if when i say everyone else who has learned these facts will not unlearn them either. once they've seen the city, how you gonna keep them down on the farm?

you can't refute points you don't understand, and it's clear you don't understand what... yes we... understand as we have been trying to teach you. shame, because you do seem to have much to add, but as i said net zero at this rate.

[nero3]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

i am not going to revert back to the dark ages when i did not know that the fire econ existed, that asset price inflation is a goal of monetary policy, that debt can be deflated against the rising nominal cash flows, and so on. and i don't think i'm taking liberties if when i say everyone else who has learned these facts will not unlearn them either. once they've seen the city, how you gonna keep them down on the farm?

you can't refute points you don't understand, and it's clear you don't understand what... yes we... understand as we have been trying to teach you. shame, because you do seem to have much to add, but as i said net zero at this rate.

Now this reminds me of a piano teacher that makes his students use different codes because they can't learn notes. It's much better to use notes, than the substitute is it not?

[rogermexico]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

i am not going to revert back to the dark ages when i did not know that the fire econ existed, that asset price inflation is a goal of monetary policy, that debt can be deflated against the rising nominal cash flows, and so on. and i don't think i'm taking liberties if when i say everyone else who has learned these facts will not unlearn them either. once they've seen the city, how you gonna keep them down on the farm?

you can't refute points you don't understand, and it's clear you don't understand what... yes we... understand as we have been trying to teach you. shame, because you do seem to have much to add, but as i said net zero at this rate.

It's time to give up, Metalman. He won't read the posts to find out what we are talking about. You are arguing with a wall.

[metalman]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

It's time to give up, Metalman. He won't read the posts to find out what we are talking about. You are arguing with a wall.

yeh, just posted my last to nero. it's like talking evolution to a creationist who insists that until you learn that humans were created on a wednesday afternoon, or was it a friday, you are unenlightened. waste of time... but it was worth a try. might have been a there there, but there wasn't.

[Guest]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

What you don't mention - that you become agitated and uncomfortable around someone in the same small community who is suggesting, arguing or even "preaching" (as you might see it) for a viewpoint diametrically opposite to your own. I personally enjoy seeing this place crammed full of diametrically opposite opinions. I don't ever feel "threatened", or "indignant", or "merely amused at the silliness" when I read such challenging disagreements. They are the very best thing you could see included here, because they challenge everyone to rethink their premises really hard. Conversely, I look at the far larger reaction, which is one of indignation that "wrong opinions" are allowed to air on these pages, and maybe even (horrors) influence a few people to "remain undecided" as to what the bottom line is for a little while longer. Remaining undecided is acutely uncomfortable, but it is very stimulative to the kind of hard, probing questioning and thinking which equates to *survival*. Survival = doubt and questioning. Diminished survival = axioms, certainties and no questioning beyond certain guidelines of what has been "already proved". NOTHING has been already proved about what will unfold next.

yeh, just posted my last to nero. it's like talking evolution to a creationist who insists that until you learn that humans were created on a wednesday afternoon, or was it a friday, you are enlightened. waste of time... but it was worth a try. might have been a there there, but there wasn't.

[metalman]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

What you don't mention - that you become agitated and uncomfortable around someone in the same small community who is suggesting, arguing or even "preaching" (as you might see it) for a viewpoint diametrically opposite to your own. I personally enjoy seeing this place crammed full of diametrically opposite opinions. I don't ever feel "threatened", or "indignant", or "merely amused at the silliness" when I read such challenging disagreements. They are the very best thing you could see included here, because they challenge everyone to rethink their premises really hard. Conversely, I look at the far larger reaction, which is one of indignation that "wrong opinions" are allowed to air on these pages, and maybe even (horrors) influence a few people to "remain undecided" as to what the bottom line is for a little while longer. Remaining undecided is acutely uncomfortable, but it is very stimulative to the kind of hard, probing questioning and thinking which equates to *survival*. Survival = doubt and questioning. Diminished survival = axioms, certainties and no questioning beyond certain guidelines of what has been "already proved". NOTHING has been already proved about what will unfold next.

how many points have we argued here over the years to arrive at the beliefs we have? we don't think what we think about housing and stocks and gold and oil, etc, for no reason. how many thousands of hours of self-questioning and beating of points sometimes to death have we done here over the years? then someone comes in and says, in effect... 'never mind all that. don't build on the knowledge you have gained by all of your hard work and argument. throw it away and listen to me. you guys are all stupid.' with predictable results...

no, let us continue to question the ideas we've honed here not throw them away and start over.

that really would be stupid.

[Guest]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

Metyalman -

No, you are still missing the point. You don't have to listen to him. All you have to do, is be willing to tolerate him posting ideas which you consider un-read, misinformed and downright ignorant. You have to be willing to tolerate that he's going to post uninformed, dangerous views (to your way of seeing it), and even sway a few other people's minds in the process. That's regardless of how many times you think the same issues have been thrashed into the ground. This is why it is called a "forum". Get it?

how many points have we argued here over the years to arrive at the beliefs we have? we don't think what we think about housing and stocks and gold and oil, etc, for no reason. how many thousands of hours of self-questioning and beating of points sometimes to death have we done here over the years? then someone comes in and says, in effect... 'never mind all that. don't build on the knowledge you have gained by all of your hard work and argument. throw it away and listen to me. you guys are all stupid.' with predictable results...

no, let us continue to question the ideas we've honed here not throw them away and start over.

that really would be stupid.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

I don't ever feel "threatened", or "indignant", or "merely amused at the silliness" when I read such challenging disagreements.

My, my, isn't Lukester special!

Sorry - not very sportin' of me, I know. Just couldn't resist.

[Guest]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

Oh come on Pythonic Cow. Read these threads - people landing on this guy like a ton of bricks and telling him he's "got to shut up with these silly ideas because we have all already figured it out before he arrived and he's just plain wrong". And you are suggesting my above comment has no real basis? People here working themselves up into a lather because he is "not substantiating his views"? Tons of people here posting opinions without substantiating their views adequately. Happens every day. The complaint is highly selective - this indignation is directed (selectively) at those who come in suggesting some components of iTulip's thesis may be viewed from a totally different angle. They are "not substantiating" this to various indignant individuals satisfaction and it becomes a barbecue roast? Then you read people saying "that's it, I give up on this guy, not talking to him any more. Meanwhile it's supposed to be a "forum for the exchange of ideas". :rolleyes: Yeesh.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

Oh come on Pythonic Cow.

There are many facets to this discussion. I'd best duck, and wish all well.

[metalman]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

Metyalman -

No, you are still missing the point. You don't have to listen to him. All you have to do, is be willing to tolerate him posting ideas which you consider un-read, misinformed and downright ignorant. You have to be willing to tolerate that he's going to post uninformed, dangerous views (to your way of seeing it), and even sway a few other people's minds in the process. That's regardless of how many times you think the same issues have been thrashed into the ground. This is why it is called a "forum". Get it?

ok, let's talk about scenarios for a future drought caused by changes in weather patterns. start with the assumption that the sun revolves around the earth.

see the problem?

thrashing issues into the ground... yeah! let's do oil again! let's review housing! we have a language here to argue the ideas that came out of previous arguments, or as rogermex says... a framework. what if instead of debt deflation meaning a decrease in the debt level we throw away what we learned from keen and hudson and now it means a decrease in the price level ala mishmash?

it's all a mess now, luke. i come here for the context, else itulip is like any other site... no context for anything... a string of inexplicable 'unpredictable' (who could have known?) events. without context, we are lost. governments run the financial system! so... there's no point whatsoever in talking about financial markets as if that was not the case, as if it could ever be 1975 or 1930 again. bad enough that head and shoulders chartist voodoo bullshit leaks in here time to time. the last thing i need to hear at a time like this is a bunch of ben stein/jim cramer quality drivel about missing the big bull market... unless the other issues are adressed... the fire economy. is it coming back? have yet to see a solid argument that it is/can.

[metalman]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

Oh come on Pythonic Cow. Read these threads - people landing on this guy like a ton of bricks and telling him he's "got to shut up with these silly ideas because we have all already figured it out before he arrived and he's just plain wrong". And you are suggesting my above comment has no real basis? People here working themselves up into a lather because he is "not substantiating his views"? Tons of people here posting opinions without substantiating their views adequately. Happens every day. The complaint is highly selective - this indignation is directed (selectively) at those who come in suggesting some components of iTulip's thesis may be viewed from a totally different angle. They are "not substantiating" this to various indignant individuals satisfaction and it becomes a barbecue roast? Then you read people saying "that's it, I give up on this guy, not talking to him any more. Meanwhile it's supposed to be a "forum for the exchange of ideas". :rolleyes: Yeesh.

exchange of ideas...

right...



wrong...



right...



wrong...

[LargoWinch]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

Happy Easter! (and great Sunday thread)

Il marche et relache des fevres gelatinees!