Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

[Guest]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

these ideas allowed itulip make solid forecasts... we're not going to unlearn them.

Nobody is asking you to unlearn these ideas - you've been imposed upon, merely to accomodate divergent (even if to you uninformed) opinions among others.

[vanvaley1]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

A thousand? How can ya not love optimists? Lordy...we get that low and it will ruin the NFL season.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

You have accused Metalman of relying on EJ to do his thinking. I cannot speak for Metalman, but some of us are here because the itulip thesis confirms what we have discovered on our own long before itulip was known to us. EJ has given theoretical structure to own empirical results and less well-formed hypotheses and lemmas.

Well said. Thanks.

[Guest]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

please give me a rank ordered list of the following assets and where they will be one year and 5 years from now in terms of real return: S&P 500, GLD, WTI, Copper, Ag Commodities (WHeat, Corn Soy etc) Dollar index. You can throw in some other currencies if you wish. The point is, nominal price levels are not interesting, we need to know how to protect our wealth

This request seems to this reader to be a rhetorical jockeying around, more than anything else, and also is essentially absurd. Why? Because we can all chip in an opinion as to where these assets will be in five years without bringing anyone an inch closer to certainties. So what? What have you accomplished by gathering his opinion on that? Even EJ's is highly approximate, so what exactly are you presuming to capture with this request in the way of market intelligence?

[metalman]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

This request seems to this reader to be a rhetorical jockeying around, more than anything else, and also is essentially absurd. Why? Because we can all chip in an opinion as to where these assets will be in five years without bringing anyone an inch closer to certainties. So what? What have you accomplished by gathering his opinion on that? Even EJ's is highly approximate, so what exactly are you presuming to capture with this request in the way of market intelligence?

his question relates to nero's point that houses are cheap. rogermex is asking, cheaper than what? and, which will go higher in an inflation?

in an inflation commodities rise more in real terms than stocks and housing lags because interest rates rise... more so in this case because they are starting off at an inflated price.

so forget stocks and houses in an inflation, among commodities, which will do best? land? ag? energy? metals?

[Guest]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

Too many generic attributions in your comment.

"in an inflation commodities rise more in real terms than housing or stocks because of interest rates".

No. Commodities / stocks / housing perform in different ways in different inflationary bear markets. This assertion is too generic to be useful. Housing is a leveraged investment, further complicating the above assertion which equates it's returns with unleveraged commodities ownership.

"so forget stocks and houses in an inflation"

This is A) highly generic as a prescription and B) also likely incorrect, because of the point above - too generic to be useful in many, many different markets worldwide. *It may be so* in this inflationary bear market, but your assertion that this is already a "known fact" is highly audacious.

"which will do best, land, ag, energy, metals?"

It's a rhetorical question, because no-one knows. Anyone claiming to "know" is also making an audacious assertion. Notthing wrong with that - but it's just an assertion, whether it's from you, from Rogermexico, from Nero3, from me, or anyone else. Now explain to me please, how does the making of such assertions render Nero3's comments more robust, substantiated or palatable to you guys?

his question relates to nero's point that houses are cheap. rogermex is asking, cheaper than what? and, which will go higher in an inflation?

in an inflation commodities rise more in real terms than stocks and housing lags because interest rates rise... more so in this case because they are starting off at an inflated price.

so forget stocks and houses in an inflation, among commodities, which will do best? land? ag? energy? metals?

[nero3]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

The point is, nominal price levels are not interesting, we need to know how to protect our wealth

I was out to test some of my views on a broader audience, and I have certainly done it. I was not here to learn you and other people about investing in detail, or convert anyone to my view,as that is out of my reach to spend that amount of time. I invest through finding companies that are cheap, and my main concern is not the macro picture. That's the timing game, not my game. If you know how to protect your wealth that is good, but if you don't I can't learn it to you, as that is something you will have to devote in the excess of thousands to tens of thousands of hours to learn depending on your learnings curve, it's certainly not learned in under 1000 hours, and it's not something I can learn someone through my posts here, but maybe I could throw some doubt into the mind of someone who have been absolutely sure about the debt deflation scenario with deflation. It's by the way, much easier to buy a company now, that are selling at a cheap valuation compared to what you see as long term earnings, using this market now, as a long term buying opportunity, instead of trying to time the move of what some commodity might do 5 years from now, that's not something I am good at. If this is going to be a further inflationary structural inflationary bear-market, similar to 1975-1980, I would much rather own railroad shares than gold, because it performed as well as gold back then on the way up from the mid seventies, plus that it provided a jump in profits after gold tanked, so not the timing issue you have with gold. Plus all the dividends of course.

[Chomsky]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

I was out to test some of my views on a broader audience, and I have certainly done it. I was not here to learn you and other people about investing in detail, or convert anyone to my view,as that is out of my reach to spend that amount of time. If you know how to protect your wealth that is good, but if you don't I can't learn it to you, as that is something you will have to devote in the excess of thousands to tens of thousands of hours to learn depending on your learnings curve, it's certainly not learned in under 1000 hours, and it's not something I can learn someone through my posts here, but maybe I could throw some doubt into the mind of someone who have been absolutely sure about the debt deflation scenario with deflation. It's by the way, much easier to buy a company now, that are selling at a cheap valuation compared to what you see as long term earnings, using this market now, as a long term buying opportunity, instead of trying to time the move of what some commodity might do 5 years from now, that's not something I am good at. If this is going to be a further inflationary structural inflationary bear-market, similar to 1975-1980, I would much rather own railroad shares than gold, because it performed as well as gold back then on the way up from the mid seventies, plus that it provided a jump in profits after gold tanked. Plus dividends of course.

Right. But it's been made clear again and again on this site that while there was to be debt deflation (and there is), the outcome is likely to be INFLATIONARY, not deflationary.

[metalman]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

but maybe I could throw some doubt into the mind of someone who have been absolutely sure about the debt deflation scenario with deflation.

that'd be mish, ackerman, and co. here we buy into debt deflation by monetary inflation.

If this is going to be a further inflationary structural inflationary bear-market, similar to 1975-1980,

that's the idea promoted here since 2001 and why ej bought at $270. have other stuff done better? sure. oil has done great.

I would much rather own railroad shares than gold, because it performed as well as gold back then on the way up from the mid seventies, plus that it provided a jump in profits after gold tanked. Plus dividends of course.

that was then. these events never repeat the same way twice. will railroad shares take off again? or something else? i like uranium.

[nero3]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

Right. But it's been made clear again and again on this site that while there was to be debt deflation (and there is), the outcome is likely to be INFLATIONARY, not deflationary.

Sure, but the impression I get from some that I discuss with is that they are looking at maybe 1-2 even 3 years of debt deflation, like in Japan, and that this is a bad time to buy stocks. That I don't agree on. With all the money spent, and the potential for a tide of liquidity to enter, plus all the cash on the sidelines, plus the even lower importance of the US stock market now, compared to before, I think march 2009 was the low for the dow, just like in march 2003, and that waiting for further debt deflation, and a better entry point in like 2010 or 2011 while waiting in cash will be frustrating as I suspect the dow will be higher then than now.

[Guest]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

Nero3 - With respect - there is still lots of worthwhile reading to do on this website to become completely familiar with all their viewpoints. After two years of reading I am not able to find anything here in the iTulip archives that contains a single fundamentally incorrect premise ( to my own very limited markets intelligence ) on our current situation, and you've made one or two references to premises which are incorrect, but which no one here is deluded by. There is no classic deflationist thinking here. There is no endorsement of gold equities here. If you had these impressions you have may not have read around enough to have a full fix on where this community is coming from. I for one much appreciate your fresh ideas and hope you remain an active member here for a long time, but perhaps a little more familiarization with the sobriety of the core opinions here remains in order.

[Guest]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

Sure, but the impression I get from some that I discuss with is that they are looking at maybe 1-2 even 3 years of debt deflation, like in Japan, and that this is a bad time to buy stocks. That I don't agree on. With all the money spent, and the potential for a tide of liquidity to enter, plus all the cash on the sidelines, plus the even lower importance of the US stock market now, compared to before, I think march 2009 was the low for the dow, just like in march 2003, and that waiting for further debt deflation, and a better entry point in like 2010 or 2011 will be frustrating as I suspect the dow will be higher then than now.

Spot on IMO.

[nero3]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

that'd be mish, ackerman, and co. here we buy into debt deflation by monetary inflation.




that was then. these events never repeat the same way twice. will railroad shares take off again? or something else? i like uranium.

Debt deflation with inflation, makes me think of the US economy during WW2 where private debt get's shifted into public debt. And of course during the 30-s, but it was mostly during the WW2 era. Railroad performed great in that environment. Norwegian stocks did great. The kind of WW2 kind of economy, is the only debt deflation scenario I see, that will be really inflationary, while there is a debt deflation going on. The fed bought treasuries then, as they have been doing now. I would rather think that you would get inflation, with a further debt buildup, by the private sector, than this public debt buildup partly financed by monetizing debt, creating a inflationary debt deflation like during WW2, however, that's certainly a possibility, however, I won't say that stocks are a poor investment in that environment. The stock market might not do much as a whole, but the dividends will increase, and when inflation peaks, profit margins will increase, and the share prices will increase, and the book values will increase, Warren Buffet have experienced this phenomena in a 1979 fortune article where he write about inflation, and what happened to book values after 1950. The War printed up the book values, however, the adjustment in the books, did not take place until after 1950

[metalman]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

Debt deflation with inflation, makes me think of the US economy during WW2 where private debt get's shifted into public debt. And of course during the 30-s, but it was mostly during the WW2 era. Railroad performed great in that environment. Norwegian stocks did great. The kind of WW2 kind of economy, is the only debt deflation scenario I see, that will be really inflationary, while there is a debt deflation going on. The fed bought treasuries then, as they have been doing now. I would rather think that you would get inflation, with a further debt buildup, by the private sector, than this public debt buildup partly financed by monetizing debt, creating a inflationary debt deflation like during WW2, however, that's certainly a possibility, however, I won't say that stocks are a poor investment in that environment. The stock market might not do much as a whole, but the dividends will increase, and when inflation peaks, profit margins will increase, and the share prices will increase, and the book values will increase, Warren Buffet have experienced this phenomena in a 1979 fortune article where he write about inflation, and what happened to book values after 1950. The War printed up the book values, however, the adjustment in the books, did not take place until after 1950

there are plenty of other ways to get inflation. see ka-poom theory... cost-push inflation due to a cycle of dollar repatriation, inflation and a usa economy shrinking relative to others'. the idea is ten years old. soros seems to like it now.

[Munger]

Re: Ian Gordon and his Dow 1000 forecast

Debt deflation with inflation, makes me think of the US economy during WW2 where private debt get's shifted into public debt. And of course during the 30-s, but it was mostly during the WW2 era. Railroad performed great in that environment. Norwegian stocks did great. The kind of WW2 kind of economy, is the only debt deflation scenario I see, that will be really inflationary, while there is a debt deflation going on. The fed bought treasuries then, as they have been doing now. I would rather think that you would get inflation, with a further debt buildup, by the private sector, than this public debt buildup partly financed by monetizing debt, creating a inflationary debt deflation like during WW2, however, that's certainly a possibility, however, I won't say that stocks are a poor investment in that environment. The stock market might not do much as a whole, but the dividends will increase, and when inflation peaks, profit margins will increase, and the share prices will increase, and the book values will increase, Warren Buffet have experienced this phenomena in a 1979 fortune article where he write about inflation, and what happened to book values after 1950. The War printed up the book values, however, the adjustment in the books, did not take place until after 1950

Ummm ... huh? Please read this closely.