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  • Roubini intoxicated, Cramer a Buffoon

    Economist Nouriel Roubini lashes out at CNBC host
    By ROB GILLIES – 11 hours ago


    TORONTO (AP) — CNBC's Jim Cramer has another feud on his hands.
    Just weeks after "The Daily Show" host Jon Stewart took Cramer to task for trying to turn finance reporting into a "game," famous bear economist Nouriel Roubini criticized Cramer on Tuesday for predicting bull markets.
    "Cramer is a buffoon," said Roubini, a New York University economics professor often called Dr. Doom. "He was one of those who called six times in a row for this bear market rally to be a bull market rally and he got it wrong. And after all this mess and Jon Stewart he should just shut up because he has no shame."


    Cramer recently wrote in a blog that Roubini is "intoxicated" with his own "prescience and vision" and said Roubini should realize that things are better since the stock market bottom in March.


    Roubini said in 2006 that the worst recession in four decades was on its way. He has attracted attention for his gloomy — and accurate — predictions of the U.S. financial market meltdown.


    Roubini said the latest surge is just another bear market rally following the pattern of other rallies after the government intervened. He expects the market will test the previous low because of worse than expected macroeconomic news, disappointing earnings and because banks will fail after the stress tests come out.


    "Once people get the reality check than it's going to get ugly again," Roubini said.


    Roubini said Cramer should keep quiet.


    "He's not a credible analyst. Every time it was a bear market rally he said it was the beginning of a bull and he got it wrong," Roubini said in an interview with The Associated Press.


    Cramer has conceded he made some wrong calls, like most people watching the market. But he went on "Today" last October telling people that if they needed money in the next five years, take it out of the stock market. Anyone who heeded that advice saved money, he said.


    Roubini said he supports Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's plan to remove toxic assets from the banks. Cramer recently wrote that Roubini and Nobel laureate New York Times columnist Paul Krugman are both on "the nationalization jihad."


    "He keeps insulting me personally and saying a bunch of lies," Roubini said. "He doesn't even know I was supporting it so he says lies."


    Roubini made the comments before appearing with bank analyst Meredith Whitney and Canadian bears Ian Gordon and Eric Sprott at a Toronto event titled "A Night with the Bears." They all correctly predicted the current financial meltdown.


    Whitney, among the most bearish of bank analysts, said that some of the 19 banks undergoing government stress tests may not pass.
    "I think the big banks will get through and some of the smaller banks may not," Whitney said in interview with The AP.


    Gordon, author of The Long Wave Analyst newsletters, told the event's audience of 1,500 that he expects the Dow Jones industrial average to plummet to 1,000 based on the idea that economic events repeat themselves in regular sequence every 60 years or so.


    Sprott, a Canadian hedge fund owner, told the predominantly business crowd that systemic risk remains and that investors should buy gold.
    Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
    Peak unemployment predictions of Roubini;
    Sept 08 ------ 8%
    Oct 08 ------- 9%
    March 09 ------ 10%

  • #2
    Re: Roubini intoxicated, Cramer a Buffoon

    I think it's likely the market did bottom out, the dow that is in march, I think most other exchanges bottomed out in November.

    The Yield Curve in Brazil virtually guarantees a boom in Brazil. That is reflected in the share prices. It don't look like 1929 at all, speaking of shares like PBR.

    But who knows. What makes me most bullish is that weak companies, are already as cheap as they can go, practically, before they go to zero. That match with my vision that this is a 73-74 experience. That also match with China. China in the 00-s is like Japan in 70-s. It also match the moves in gold, even in oil.

    Had it been like 29-32, I think the extreme discount on these bankruptcy candidates would be much less, at this stage in the cycle.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Roubini intoxicated, Cramer a Buffoon

      Roubini is not all that far off on the UI numbers, especially when you
      consider all the ridiculousness of the 'birth-death' model and how the
      past month numbers get revised upwards every time...

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Roubini intoxicated, Cramer a Buffoon

        'But who knows. What makes me most bullish is that weak companies, are already as cheap as they can go, practically, before they go to zero.'

        Great idea. Buy now and watch the weak companies go to zero.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Roubini intoxicated, Cramer a Buffoon

          Originally posted by nero3 View Post
          I think it's likely the market did bottom out, the dow that is in march, I think most other exchanges bottomed out in November.
          nero3, some people would argue that a 98.62 P/E(Gaap) ratio, maybe a tidy, tiny overvalued...

          http://www.comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000/404.pdf

          As for me, I tend to agree with the overvalued part.

          Have you posted your allocation on "how one iTuliper is invested" yet?

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Roubini intoxicated, Cramer a Buffoon

            Originally posted by LargoWinch View Post
            nero3, some people would argue that a 98.62 P/E(Gaap) ratio, maybe a tidy, tiny overvalued...

            http://www.comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000/404.pdf

            As for me, I tend to agree with the overvalued part.

            Have you posted your allocation on "how one iTuliper is invested" yet?
            Not yet.

            You have two "bargain" ranges. One is when the P/E get's very, very high, like in 1982 (talking dow here), when it was above 80, or in 1932, when it was negative, or in 1933 when it was above 50. The P/E must also be seen in relation to the level of interest rates. That it's so high on the S&P, that never fared as bad as the dow in 82, is just an indication of how bad the crisis is, not that stocks is not cheap. I think you are dreaming if you think the low this time will be in the single digit P/E range. The low will be or have been with a very high P/E number as we have now.And was the case for the dow in 1982.

            I feel the level of the stock market cap to GDP is the best measure, and at the low it was around the level of the low in the 73-74 bear market. I think that's as low as it went this time. I think the dow have been in a bull since march. To match 1929, the dow would have to drop to around 3500, however, given that the dow came from a much lower start level than in 1929 in relation to GDP, I think it's very unlikely that this correction will be seen like 1929. It will be seen like 1938 or 1973-74. We have had the correction now, and I think the market will go up, even if the news will be very bad.
            Last edited by nero3; April 09, 2009, 03:00 AM.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Roubini intoxicated, Cramer a Buffoon

              More Nero - the bottom is in crap.

              Maybe Nero IS Cramer :eek:

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Roubini intoxicated, Cramer a Buffoon

                While I disagree with Nero, I think people should be a little more polite to the guy. People get so testy sometimes. I actually like to hear a dissenting opinion, not one big circle jerk.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Roubini intoxicated, Cramer a Buffoon

                  Dissenting opinions are cool.

                  Repeating the same thing over and over... failing to address existing iTulip points... not

                  Comment

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