Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

[nero3]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

Nero, I have a question about your forecast.

Even if interest rates head up, if the US is faced with the prospect that the recession is going to set in again (or get worse, whatever), why do you think the gov't will care at that point about inflation? Wouldn't that just guarantee them a full-on depression if they clamp on the brakes? Maybe I'm missing something in your description because you don't mention the timeframes you see all of this happening.

Think about it. The federal reserve have Ben Bernanke, he have taken a lot of heat, but I think he have a intelligence superior to 95 % of people in the US, probably he is in the top 1-2 %, no offence anyone, but I think he is undervalued. I think he will make the difference, and once they get inflation into the 4-5-6 % range I don't think they will put on the brakes, in fact I think it will be a welcome devenlopment. Only when the economy starts to experience double digit inflation, I think any serious attemt will be made, but even then, I don't think they will really control it. Just take it down a bit, onlu to have another round of inflation after. The deflation fear is so built into the mindset of those in charge that it viritually sure that inflation will become a pretty bad problem.

[nero3]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

And you may not see much of anything going on in the USD currency index either as all the other currencies emulate worthlessness alongside the US dollar and they all drift down together in one happy family of fiat. Mainstream media financial analysts should then be looking at the "stable dollar" and the "soring indexes" and be tossing their hats into the air in jubilation at the resurgence of a strong economy.

It will be interesting to see what happens going forward. If the market can climb or atleast hold , during the coming, and bad earnings season, then we definitively is in a bull market, and recovery will come in the real economy before the end of the year. If the market fall badly on the earnings season, then I think recovery will somewhere in early to mid 2010.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

It will be interesting to see what happens going forward. If the market can climb or atleast hold , during the coming, and bad earnings season, then we definitively is in a bull market, and recovery will come in the real economy before the end of the year.

nero3, no offense, but that is a lot of words that means absolutely nothing.

[metalman]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

Think about it. The federal reserve have Ben Bernanke, he have taken a lot of heat, but I think he have a intelligence superior to 95 % of people in the US, probably he is in the top 1-2 %, no offence anyone, but I think he is undervalued. I think he will make the difference, and once they get inflation into the 4-5-6 % range I don't think they will put on the brakes, in fact I think it will be a welcome devenlopment. Only when the economy starts to experience double digit inflation, I think any serious attemt will be made, but even then, I don't think they will really control it. Just take it down a bit, onlu to have another round of inflation after. The deflation fear is so built into the mindset of those in charge that it viritually sure that inflation will become a pretty bad problem.

nero1, you won't be the first market bull with a weak argument to come and go from these forums. you're up against a site that has been dead right on these forecasts for over 10 years. you can argue the other side but you're going to have to refute all of these first...

Debt Deflation Bear Market: First Bounce - Eric Janszen
Ghost of Joseph Schumpeter and the second end of the Monthly Payment Consumer - Eric Janszen
Who stole my cheesy economy? - Eric Janszen
Flow of Funds Q4 2008: Debt Deflation confirmation - Eric Janszen
No such thing as a Treasury bond bubble - Eric Janszen
Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom? Eric Janszen
Can Anything Bring Down the Monthly Payment Consumer? Revisited - Eric Janszen
Beware Relief Rallies Update 1: DJIA 7552 the bottom? - Eric Janszen
Housing Bubble Correction Update: Here comes the jobs crash (Part I)

...and dozens of others. have you even read any of them?

[CanuckinTX]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

The federal reserve have Ben Bernanke, he have taken a lot of heat, but I think he have a intelligence superior to 95 % of people in the US, probably he is in the top 1-2 %, no offence anyone, but I think he is undervalued.

I don't know that his pure IQ level will guarantee any success on his part.

Only when the economy starts to experience double digit inflation, I think any serious attemt will be made, but even then, I don't think they will really control it. Just take it down a bit, onlu to have another round of inflation after.

This is where I tend to disagree. He might try to do something at this point but I'm sure it will be easier said than done, and probably will be too late. No matter what he said he would do or all of the assurances he gave the last 2 years, the markets still tanked and he's let it all get out of control. High IQ or not, the market is going to do what it wants despite his supposed best efforts.

[metalman]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

Think about it. The federal reserve have Ben Bernanke, he have taken a lot of heat, but I think he have a intelligence superior to 95 % of people in the US, probably he is in the top 1-2 %, no offence anyone, but I think he is undervalued.

not really...

Ask iTulip: The Bernanke Goat Rodeo and the Next Boom

[nero3]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

nero3, no offense, but that is a lot of words that means absolutely nothing.

Well, maybe nothing to you.

[nero3]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

nero1, you won't be the first market bull with a weak argument to come and go from these forums. you're up against a site that has been dead right on these forecasts for over 10 years. you can argue the other side but you're going to have to refute all of these first...

Debt Deflation Bear Market: First Bounce - Eric Janszen
Ghost of Joseph Schumpeter and the second end of the Monthly Payment Consumer - Eric Janszen
Who stole my cheesy economy? - Eric Janszen
Flow of Funds Q4 2008: Debt Deflation confirmation - Eric Janszen
No such thing as a Treasury bond bubble - Eric Janszen
Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom? Eric Janszen
Can Anything Bring Down the Monthly Payment Consumer? Revisited - Eric Janszen
Beware Relief Rallies Update 1: DJIA 7552 the bottom? - Eric Janszen
Housing Bubble Correction Update: Here comes the jobs crash (Part I)

...and dozens of others. have you even read any of them?

I have read them all.

[metalman]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

I have read them all.

ok... and your counter arguments are...???

[nero3]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

I don't know that his pure IQ level will guarantee any success on his part.



This is where I tend to disagree. He might try to do something at this point but I'm sure it will be easier said than done, and probably will be too late. No matter what he said he would do or all of the assurances he gave the last 2 years, the markets still tanked and he's let it all get out of control. High IQ or not, the market is going to do what it wants despite his supposed best efforts.

It will be interesting to see if the market will do well through the earnings season. If it does, then I think recovery will hit before the end of the year, in the real economy that is. I think this latest rally is different from the others, in the sense that the market's now are climbing on a wall of worry.

[metalman]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

the market's now are climbing on a wall of worry.

if you did read all of those articles you have a reading comprehension issue.

the economy cannot improve until the housing market improves. the housing market has 5 years or more to go.

[CanuckinTX]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

That's only useful IF you trust the earnings.

I can't wait to see what my company releases for earnings because I KNOW what our sales are doing but I have a hunch we won't be releasing anything coming close to the reality.

[nero3]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

not really...

Ask iTulip: The Bernanke Goat Rodeo and the Next Boom

Good point on Germany.

The Germany economy is really in a better position than the US, as they did not share in on the housing boom and the private consumption boom during the 90-2000s, and german house prices are low, they are not japan, but not the US, maybe somewhere in between, it was the berlin wall fall, that brought german economy into a slight depression . The german tourists have been coming on holiday to norway for years, and they tend to bring everything in their camping cars. Even box food, that was during the boom years as well. The tourist business don't like them that much.

[santafe2]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

1 % ?

It's more than a 70 % chance that we are in a bull.
Job losses should be accelerating and getting worse, when you notice improvements and get your head out of the sand, the market will be up maybe 50 %

Please take the unemployment numbers from 74-75, and compare with the dow jones index from that era. Based on a comparison, we should be at least 1 month into a bull.

This may be an issue with definitions. I would not consider 1975 a bull market, just a strong rebound in an ongoing bear market. I think you will be hard pressed to define a market that does not exceeds the market high from 10 years previous as a bull market. You may also find it difficult to define that same market by it's outcome over the next 6-7 years after 1975.

A second issue is that the economy was growing in 1975. It is so far in 2009, shrinking. Also, the economic forces are quite different between the two periods. We are certainly not dealing with an inflation problem in 2009.

A third issue you've not considered is the Fed's Overnight Rate which dropped from over 12% to about 5% in 1974-1975. This alone may account for the market's move that year. It certainly is not a factor in this rebound.

If you are considering this a great trader's market, that is one thing and you certainly are not alone in that assessment. But a new bull market? Not a chance.

[Guest]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

But a new bull market? Not a chance.

Santafe2 - this may be eminently quotable after a little while. It's got "quote me" written all over it.