Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

[blazespinnaker]

Just curious, are all the bears still believers? Or are you going to change up?

[GRG55]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

Just curious, are all the bears still believers? Or are you going to change up?

Can you refer me to one of those Bears that "market's time" [choice 2].

I never seem to have enough time, and would like to cut a deal to buy some...;)

[Chris]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

Can you refer me to one of those Bears that "market's time" [choice 2].

I never seem to have enough time, and would like to cut a deal to buy some...;)

I voted choice 2. I wouldn't say I market time exactly but the party was in full swing this week so I jumped in with both feet. I had my fill of the punch and was short for the open this morning and into cash again this evening. It was almost certainly luck with the timing.

[BadJuju]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

No, this whole episode has served as an affirmation for my stance mentally and materially.

[Master Shake]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

Just curious, are all the bears still believers? Or are you going to change up?

Still bearish. Bought some gold coins this week. Might jump back into a short ETF.

The allure of the market is tempting. If you focus on the sizzle and ignore the steak, you might think it's time to start singing "Happy Days Are Here Again." Luckily, I visit here a lot, as well as other reality-based finance sites (Jesse, Big Picture, etc.).

[nero3]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

Just curious, are all the bears still believers? Or are you going to change up?

It's a bull, I have been bullish since late 2008. When I voted I even saw I was in minority. So I guess I am right to.

[Supercilious]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

No change in thesis for me. IMHO what we see now are the oscillations preceding the start of a longer term bull.
I suspect there will be at least one more big dip before getting into the proper long term bullish trend.

[Guest]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

I have to sign up for this thesis also.

No change in thesis for me. IMHO what we see now are the oscillations preceding the start of a longer term bull.
I suspect there will be at least one more big dip before getting into the proper long term bullish trend.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

No change in thesis for me. IMHO what we see now are the oscillations preceding the start of a longer term bull.
I suspect there will be at least one more big dip before getting into the proper long term bullish trend.

Yeah, I am bullish too long-term:

Dow 30,000

Gold 45,000

Crude Oil: 4,500

[Guest]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

Yeah, I am bullish too long-term:

Dow 30,000

Gold 45,000

Crude Oil: 4,500

Dow 30,000 entirely possible within 5-6 years. :eek:

Gold 45,000 - good luck with this thesis.

Crude Oil 4,500 - good luck with this thesis too.

[santafe2]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

After many years of market timing, reading tea leaves and talking to the Magic Eight Ball I listened to EJ about 10 months ago and exited the market at DOW 13,000. Now I let him do the work with regard to an investing thesis and I stick to working at my business full time. So far, that's working out well.

[Master Shake]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

No change in thesis for me. IMHO what we see now are the oscillations preceding the start of a longer term bull.
I suspect there will be at least one more big dip before getting into the proper long term bullish trend.

What is driving the bull? The flood of $$$?

[Down Under]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

Just curious, are all the bears still believers? Or are you going to change up?

FWIW, 100% bearish. I cannot read EJ & Jim Sinclair & use my brain and come to any other conclusion. The fraud & corruption that's going on is very deep and widespread.

[santafe2]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

What is driving the bull? The flood of $$$?

It's a seasonal thing and coming to an end in the next week or so. People must fund retirement accounts by 4/15. Some of that money finds it's way into the stock market, especially when it's down over 50%. The MSM is calling 3/9/09 the market bottom. Jim Cramer was on CNBC saying that "the depression is over". The cheer leaders are out. It's unfortunate since the underlying economy has not changed one bit since last September when it bottomed. There are other shoes to drop such as commerical real estate, the US$, etc. The DOW could easily go to 5,000 this fall if the economy does not turn around soon.

[charliebrown]

Re: Stocks up, gold down - time for a change in thesis?

im a bear who trades and i am getting my face ripped off here.
I dont understand how employment keeps going up, vacancy rates in commercial real-estate keep increasing, home prices keep falling and IYR/SRS is blasting up/down.

Ive been buying SRS on the way down, and writting otm calls when the price moves against me.
I have a cost basis of 45.00. and wrote calls at an average of around 60.
As long as SRS stops going down for a while I can recover. SRS has a 10% premium on at the money calls with a 30 day duration. So If we stablize here, and I can write a may 50 call for 5.00. I'll be close to beak even again.

I've been using this dip to increase my gold holdings. I'm at 5%. I'd like to see it hit around 850 before I put in a big buy. Also silver seems like a good play. We recover and industrial use goes up, we implode and its monetary value goes up. will cautiously buy more at 12.50.

DBC is starting to show price momentum. If it can hold for a while at 21.00 I will add to my position.

I think the only thing that is going to make stocks go up significantly is inflation. I dont see a dow 15,000 stock portfolio buying much more than a dow 8000 portfolio does today.