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SocGen: Gold price could fall 20% by EOY

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  • SocGen: Gold price could fall 20% by EOY

    "Investment bank Société Générale is calling gold down to below $800 by the end of this year as a stalling in investment is unlikely to be offset by an equivalent recovery in jewellery demand. The fact that prices fell very sharply when investment faltered over the turn of February and March is cited as a potential precursor to more of the same later in the year.

    ...

    Société Générale questions whether investors, who have so far been up to the task of absorbing all the metal that the market can throw at them, can sustain this level of activity. For the short term, further investment activity is likely and higher prices are expected to come with it. For the longer term, though, the investor is expected to "take his foot off the pedal" and this will put gold prices under substantial pressure."

    http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/...1178&sn=Detail


    Buying dip. Sweet.

  • #2
    Re: SocGen: Gold price could fall 20% by EOY

    Originally posted by WildspitzE View Post
    "Investment bank Société Générale is calling gold down to below $800 by the end of this year as a stalling in investment is unlikely to be offset by an equivalent recovery in jewellery demand. The fact that prices fell very sharply when investment faltered over the turn of February and March is cited as a potential precursor to more of the same later in the year.

    ...

    Société Générale questions whether investors, who have so far been up to the task of absorbing all the metal that the market can throw at them, can sustain this level of activity. For the short term, further investment activity is likely and higher prices are expected to come with it. For the longer term, though, the investor is expected to "take his foot off the pedal" and this will put gold prices under substantial pressure."

    http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/...1178&sn=Detail


    Buying dip. Sweet.
    They are full of shit, didn't they lose umteenquintillion dollars on bad bets that they guessed wrong on?

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    • #3
      Re: SocGen: Gold price could fall 20% by EOY

      i read all the time of the big banks saying oil is going down/up, gold is going down/up, stocks are going down/up yadda, yadda, yadda ... If you have nearly unlimited access to capital, and really believe what you say, wouldn't you dump gold / buy itm puts / sell otm calls if you were SGen?? Are they doing this? or do they really want to increase holdings and are trying to push the price down?? Pump and dump play on steroids.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: SocGen: Gold price could fall 20% by EOY

        IMO more substantive than that. Even entities like Soc. Gen. have ultra short trading positions and longer term hold positions. All this forecast is referencing is recos for short term money. IMO this forecast has a high probability to be correct. No big deal for long term gold owners. When people loaded up on gold, they told themselves that they were comfortable with this degree of volatility, no?

        Originally posted by charliebrown View Post
        i read all the time of the big banks saying oil is going down/up, gold is going down/up, stocks are going down/up yadda, yadda, yadda ... If you have nearly unlimited access to capital, and really believe what you say, wouldn't you dump gold / buy itm puts / sell otm calls if you were SGen?? Are they doing this? or do they really want to increase holdings and are trying to push the price down?? Pump and dump play on steroids.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: SocGen: Gold price could fall 20% by EOY

          Originally posted by Lukester View Post
          IMO more substantive than that. Even entities like Soc. Gen. have ultra short trading positions and longer term hold positions. All this forecast is referencing is recos for short term money. IMO this forecast has a high probability to be correct. No big deal for long term gold owners. When people loaded up on gold, they told themselves that they were comfortable with this degree of volatility, no?
          At the end of my original post, I was actually going to make the wisecrack: "Is Lukester writing SocGen's research reports now?" I changed my mind given the amount of flak you've been getting as of late.

          Personally, I'm not in love with the timing on the call -- especially because of the volatility we see in the markets these days.

          Who cares where the price will "end" at the year of 2009? It takes but a couple of days to cover enough ground, up or down, to affect the price by 100-200 bucks. What will the ride there look like? And, what's the longer term trend?

          Like most in here, my opinion in the medium to long term is that we'll see gold's price trend upwards, and I see the volatility in 2009 (while this great debate continues) as an opportunity to continue consolidating a position - but, also to take profits on the position from time to time as a way to manage your cost/risk.

          Like I said somewhere else, we should all invest in some popcorn. These times are interesting. I expect things to get more interesting as paper volatility begins to finally manifest itself in the real world. True transformational change in our systems won't come until then...

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          • #6
            Re: SocGen: Gold price could fall 20% by EOY

            another gold non-story. gold can fall 20% tomorrow. so what? are central banks dumping all of their gold because they've grown 100% confident in their shitty, corrupt, brain-dead global money system? no? wake me up when they do.

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            • #7
              Re: SocGen: Gold price could fall 20% by EOY

              Since 2001 has the price of gold been lower on Jan 1st, then the year before? It doesn't appear so.





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              • #8
                Re: SocGen: Gold price could fall 20% by EOY

                I hope it does drop. Another buying opportunity.

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                • #9
                  Re: SocGen: Gold price could fall 20% by EOY

                  Originally posted by flintlock View Post
                  I hope it does drop. Another buying opportunity.

                  I hate you.:p

                  Comment

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