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**Guest** · March 30, 2009, 09:07 PM

Re: Some comparisons to 1974

Image file load seems to be buggy today. Tried uploading a gif, tif, jpg, png, as well as copy pasting every one of those file formats in and they are rejected.

Error message on the iTulip server reads "the image is not a valid file format". Right. Sucks.

Charts referenced are here: http://www.safehaven.com/article-12867.htm

OK this time it worked.

**CanuckinTX** · March 30, 2009, 09:58 PM

Re: Some comparisons to 1974

Originally posted by nero3 View Post

I have added some graphs here. First a standalone, homebuilder Centex:

For the same of the argument. What I mean is that there is a similarity now to late 1974 or early 1975 in the charts. Not to mention the clothes fashion.

What if it's middle of '73 instead of early '74?

Sorry Nero, but if you're just going to pick and choose dates on some charts before a stock took off it will take a lot more to convince me it's Bull time again. That's the reason I like this site - there's never a market call given that isn't backed with solid research and a plausible reason why it will come to fruition.

**Guest** · March 30, 2009, 10:04 PM

Re: Some comparisons to 1974

CanuckinTX - To be fair, Nero3 isn't exactly straining himself to win converts here. More precisely it seems he's merely mentioning why he's deploying his own money there.

**CanuckinTX** · March 30, 2009, 10:07 PM

Re: Some comparisons to 1974

I hear you Lukester. I guess I was making my comment as much to let him know that we're used to a little more rigor behind any investment decision.

Based on Centex as an example, I don't see the 'why' he would invest in it other than he thinks the current chart looks similar to 74 when the stock started to trend up. What macro events make home builders interesting at all right now?

**Guest** · March 30, 2009, 10:25 PM

Re: Some comparisons to 1974

I can't get into this CanuckinTX. Gotta cram for an exam day after tomorrow.

I guess if Nero3 is intrigued with the work EJ's done he'll get a sense of those methods and may have some further comment. Meantime he's voting with his money at this juncture.

Would you say we've got at least a few people here meanwhile who can expound theory with the best of them, and yet are much more hesitant on execution? What would that say about the theories if they prefer to keep the execution on the drawing board?

Of course, there's nothing wrong with caution, but keep in mind iTulip is indeed forecasting an equities bubble, and that's been one of the core items of their thesis for some years now. We are talking "are we there yet", not "is the groundwork being laid for this to occur".

You know, I'm beginning to discover just how many Canadians we've got in this community. Lots! We're being infiltrated by Canadians here! Stealthy takeover of the US! What do they want from us?! Do they hate us for our freedoms maybe? :eek:

**Sharky** · March 30, 2009, 10:38 PM

Re: Some comparisons to 1974

Lukester -- I had the same problem uploading images. I sent a PM about it to BDAdmin, but haven't heard anything yet.

That chart is very interesting. If anything, I think it understates the problem, particularly on the Y axis. Yes, prices have come down. However, as accounting practices have "evolved" over the last decade, Book Values are still massively inflated. BV is not close to replacement value as the referenced article implies. BV is acquisition cost less depreciation. Given the heavily inflated asset prices over the last decade, depreciation is not even close to offsetting the decline in market prices...

**CanuckinTX** · March 30, 2009, 10:41 PM

Re: Some comparisons to 1974

Well I've got a foot in both camps, Canadian in the US! It's easier to spy when you're amongst them.

I concur about the theory vs. execution stance but since I'm pretty much a taker of ideas here and not a giver (beyond my subscription fee) I guess I shouldn't criticize anyone's approach. I'll just vote on what I believe in with my investment dollars.

Good luck on the exam!

**Guest** · March 30, 2009, 10:53 PM

Re: Some comparisons to 1974

Originally posted by Sharky View Post

I had the same problem uploading images. I sent a PM about it to BDAdmin, but haven't heard anything yet....

This is a cheap ass crappy website. Substandard opinionated editors, crappy servers, cheapo VBulletin application. Lots of stroppy and dimwitted customers bellowing about with an attitude. And that Fred character - I can imagine him with his feet up on the pitted old desk chainsmoking Pall Mall non filters, drinking vile cheapo instant coffee and occasionally glancing carelessly and cynically at what's up on the screen through his takeout chop suey. What a downmarket enterprise here, eh? Scandalous.

**nero3** · March 31, 2009, 04:56 AM

Re: Some comparisons to 1974

Originally posted by CanuckinTX View Post

What if it's middle of '73 instead of early '74?

Sorry Nero, but if you're just going to pick and choose dates on some charts before a stock took off it will take a lot more to convince me it's Bull time again. That's the reason I like this site - there's never a market call given that isn't backed with solid research and a plausible reason why it will come to fruition.

There was a lot of things in the early seventies that was the same as the era from 1995 (the start of the great bubble), just on a smaller scale. A housing bubble, a bubble in bank shares, a bubble in japanese and emerging market shares, and a move in gold, similar to the last years. However, from interest rates, it's not quite like the seventies.

Look at this:
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?submitted=true&intflavor=advanced&symb=CTX&origurl=%2Ftools%2Fquotes%2Fintchart.asp&x=0&y=0&startdate=3%2F30%2F1970&enddate=3%2F30%2F2009&time=20&freq=1&customdate=true&hiddenTrue=&comp=bni&compidx=aaaaa~0&compind=aaaaa~0&uf=0&ma=1&maval=50&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=0&type=128&size=3&optstyle=380

My vision is that railroad (EVEN GOLD) now is around where the homebuilder was in around 1995 . I think the price for the artificially cheap goods, the artificially low interest rates, and artificially high home prices in real terms is going to come to and end, in the form of brutally high inflation as all these trends reverse.

I think the cheap goods, and cheap food era, with something for nothing, where the rest of the world just gives the US free stuff for empty promises, is coming to an end

Here is one more comparison:

Pulte homes(fair) vs CTX (very cheap) vs John Deere (I'm bullish on Deere) : http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=D...urce=undefined

The start date should be 2000, the start of the housing bubble (blame china who started buying loads of treasuries, pushing down US interest rates). Japan did the same in 1995, it's these things that caused the twin bubble in dotcom and housing. It's not Greenspan.

The same phenomena in the early seventies.
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?submitted=true&intflavor=advanced&symb=CTX&origurl=%2Ftools%2Fquotes%2Fintchart.asp&x=0&y=0&startdate=1%2F1%2F1970&enddate=3%2F30%2F1975&time=20&freq=1&customdate=true&hiddenTrue=&comp=de&compidx=aaaaa~0&compind=aaaaa~0&uf=0&ma=1&maval=50&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=0&type=128&size=3&optstyle=380

This is very interesting because many thinks house prices will go like they did in Japan, while I think they will stabilize at what most perceive to be a high level (because of flawed CPI measurements), and then start to rise again. The most artificial thing as I see it is not house prices, as they in most cases are even below the cost to build new, but how cheap food and electronics, and other imported stuff is compared to wages and salaries. In deflation that will further increase, and I think that's unlikely, it will rather go in the other direction, towards more expensive electronics, and more expensive food.

**LargoWinch** · March 31, 2009, 06:37 AM

Re: Some comparisons to 1974

Originally posted by Lukester View Post

You know, I'm beginning to discover just how many Canadians we've got in this community. Lots!

So much so, that I am entertaining the idea of a sister website: iMaple.ca

Represents the bubble in Maple Syrup production in the 20s...

Originally posted by Lukester View Post

We're being infiltrated by Canadians here! Stealthy takeover of the US! What do they want from us?! Do they hate us for our freedoms maybe? :eek:

Our goal is simple: lure back Celine Dion...what? Done? What about Meagan Fox then?

**Guest** · March 31, 2009, 05:56 PM

Re: Some comparisons to 1974

We don't say "amongst" down here. That's for Poncey Englishmen and Canadians (and poncey New Zealanders) and other starchy types. "Amongst"?? Yeesh (who do these guys think they are?).

Originally posted by CanuckinTX View Post

Well I've got a foot in both camps, Canadian in the US! It's easier to spy when you're amongst them.

Next you'll be mentioning "candour", and "checques" and "ardour" and whatnot. You guys need to learn to talk straight, like Americans do (well, like we mostly do!

:rolleyes

.

**pwcmba** · March 31, 2009, 09:38 PM

Re: Some comparisons to 1974

Or '70/'71?

"When the dust settled, the stock market was left with its sixth straight quarter of declines, the first time that's happened since 1969 and 1970. For the Dow, it was the worst start to the year since 1939."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/A-quar...-14807150.html

One of the Sunday morning shows last weekend had a clip from 1971 of Rumsfeld on an economic roundtable explaining how the dollar devaluation of 8% would lead to increased employment of 500 to 750k. The impression intended on the viewer is what a wonderful thing when your currency is debauched.

Sounds a bit familiar.

**CanuckinTX** · March 31, 2009, 10:37 PM

Re: Some comparisons to 1974

Originally posted by Lukester View Post

We don't say "amongst" down here. That's for Poncey Englishmen and Canadians (and poncey New Zealanders) and other starchy types. "Amongst"?? Yeesh (who do these guys think they are?).

Next you'll be mentioning "candour", and "checques" and "ardour" and whatnot. You guys need to learn to talk straight, like Americans do (well, like we mostly do!

:rolleyes

.

This from the guy with the most 'flowery' writing on the boards? :p

I'm just happy I've dropped 'eh' from casual conversation. I don't stand out so much when the Yanks are aboot.

**Guest** · March 31, 2009, 10:40 PM

Re: Some comparisons to 1974

You callin' me "flowery" eh?

Originally posted by CanuckinTX View Post

This from the guy with the most 'flowery' writing on the boards? :p

I'm just happy I've dropped 'eh' from casual conversation. I don't stand out so much when the Yanks are aboot.

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