Is China the New America? ...or is America the new China?

[gasull]

Article in Foreign Policy.

It is a dramatic shift for a country that, in recent years, has grown more accustomed to righteous deregulation. But for China, watching the United States has been a lesson in déjà vu. In pursuit of national economic stability, the Obama administration is clearly moving toward the kind of statist intervention that China has been promoting the past two decades. You might say Washington is adopting the Beijing Consensus.

[don]

Re: Is China the New America? ...or is America the new China?

Or is China closer to Old America, circa 1920. An unfolding production powerhouse.

[Mega]

Re: Is China the New America? ...or is America the new China?

America did LOTS to help the British in the 1920/30's.......Even helped out with a little differaculty in Germany for 1941-45. How "Pleased" the British were when they discovered they fought a Bloody war that left their land in ruins.................Only to have America "Mug" them for the Empire, the Empire they fought the Germans so bitterly to defend.

Now, 60+ years later America which had been helped by China is about to get MUGGED..............& BOY do they know it.

Mike

[Guest]

Re: Is China the New America? ...or is America the new China?

"The Beijing Consensus". Sounds like a Robert Ludlum thriller ("The Bourne Ultimatum"). Meanwhile, Miker's in fulminating top form here.

[don]

Re: Is China the New America? ...or is America the new China?

America did LOTS to help the British in the 1920/30's.......Even helped out with a little differaculty in Germany for 1941-45. How "Pleased" the British were when they discovered they fought a Bloody war that left their land in ruins.................Only to have America "Mug" them for the Empire, the Empire they fought the Germans so bitterly to defend.

Now, 60+ years later America which had been helped by China is about to get MUGGED..............& BOY do they know it.

Mike

The goal of America in the first half of the 20th century was to be the first world top dog. That meant displacing England from that perch, not Germany. The United States was not an ally of Britain and France in WW1, they were an associate. The difference is the debts came due at war's end. No victor's compensation for the US, instead debt collection. The US led the way getting Germany back on its feet (Dawes Plan) while England and France bled her for war reparations, partly to repay the US.

During England's hour alone the Pound Sterling monopoly with the Commonwealth was ended in the 50 old destroyer deal. Being able to pick and choose when to enter a first world total war is the best seat at the table.

It was after brilliantly running the table and ending up with all the chips that the US found its New Britain difficulties.

[WildspitzE]

Re: Is China the New America? ...or is America the new China?

Or is China closer to Old America, circa 1920. An unfolding production powerhouse.

...only if we narrow the conversation to means of production. The more productive "old America" of the 20's didn't overtly fuse the government and such means of production. Even if laissez-faire had recently been buried.

However, and to address the first post on this thread, the key difference is that in China the government in essence controls the means of production, while the US seems to be seeking the "Beijing Consensus" to further (or perhaps overtly to the masses) control the means to consume or spend.

Drastically different.

All that said, the interesting thing that we'll see unfold is: how will pricing, resource distribution and capital allocation take place as more and more large economies seek to completely function by government decree (and the associated political circus)? Especially as we see large pricing mechanisms, i.e. the US market, convert over to more managed constructs. Obviously, we're at a point where even j6p should clearly see the effects of a board controlling the price and amount of money (and debt).

It's been postulated by many before me that the countries with economies that were largely controlled by the government were able to function/thrive because they operated within a global market. As we continue to move away from these market mechanisms, the ride will certainly get more interesting.

Thus, invest in popcorn.

[don]

Re: Is China the New America? ...or is America the new China?

Just as America's political superstructure was changed, and continues to be changed, by the economic base, so will China, from an agricultural base to an industrial one. In that sense I think the 20s parallel holds up.

[nero3]

Re: Is China the New America? ...or is America the new China?

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHE...ortTraffic.jpg

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHE...ortTraffic.jpg

From calculated risk.

I think what this shows is an early trend in exports, and a rater finished trend in imports. That hints to a weak dollar.

[billstew]

Re: Is China the New America? ...or is America the new China?

America did LOTS to help the British in the 1920/30's.

Even helped out with a little differaculty in Germany for 1941-45. How "Pleased" the British were when they discovered they fought a Bloody war that left their land in ruins -- only to have America "Mug" them for the Empire, the Empire they fought the Germans so bitterly to defend.

Now, 60+ years later America which had been helped by China is about to get MUGGED & BOY do they know it.

The First World War nearly bankrupted the UK, and the extra Colonies it got out of if were more expensive then they were worth.

The UK (1934) National health costs = Cost of running Iraq, pre NHS that is ... just to give you an idea.

Losing Ireland in the 1920s was a pre-echo of losing the colonies from 1950 onwards.

The UK more or less lost its will to have an Empire in the 1930s -- as the colonies did not help it out of its own depression.

The Second World War was the final accountant's nail in the coffin for the UK's Empire.

The residual WWI debts plus the current WWII debts made maintaining the Empire unworkable and outright impossible as of FY 1946.

The loss of the Empire was gradual, with about one nation becoming independent each year.

Except for its overseas territories and the Dominion of NZ (that is technically independent of the UK save the GG), there is no UK Empire.