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Ex-IMF Official Echoes Dmitri Orlov: US Now Like Soviet Union, Argentina

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  • Ex-IMF Official Echoes Dmitri Orlov: US Now Like Soviet Union, Argentina

    Article by Desmond Lachman who was a deputy director of the International Monetary Fund's Policy and Review Department:

    At the time, I could not imagine that anything remotely similar could happen in the United States. Indeed, I shared the American conceit that most emerging-market nations had poorly developed institutions and would do well to emulate Washington and Wall Street. These days, though, I'm hardly so confident. Many economists and analysts are worrying that the United States might go the way of Japan, which suffered a "lost decade" after its own real estate market fell apart in the early 1990s. But I'm more concerned that the United States is coming to resemble Argentina, Russia and other so-called emerging markets, both in what led us to the crisis, and in how we're trying to fix it.

    Over the past year, I've been getting Russia flashbacks as I witness the AIG debacle as well as the collapse of Bear Sterns and a host of other financial institutions. Much like the oligarchs did in Russia, a small group of traders and executives at onetime venerable institutions have brought the U.S. and global financial systems to their knees with their reckless risk-taking -- with other people's money -- for their personal gain.

    Negotiating with Argentina's top officials during their multiple financial crises in the 1990s was always an ordeal, and sparring with Domingo Cavallo, the country's Harvard-trained finance minister at the time, was particularly trying. One always had the sense that, despite their supreme arrogance, the country's leaders never had a coherent economic strategy and that major decisions were always made on the run. I never thought that was how policy was made in the United States -- until, that is, I saw how totally at sea Treasury Secretaries Henry Paulson and Timothy F. Geithner and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke have appeared so many times during our country's ongoing economic and financial storm....

    In the twilight of my career, when I am hopefully wiser than before, I have come to regret how the IMF and the U.S. Treasury all too often lectured leaders in emerging markets on how to "get their house in order" -- without the slightest thought that the United States might fare no better when facing a major economic crisis. Now, I fear time is running out for our own policymakers to mend their ways and offer real leadership to extricate the United States from its worst economic calamity since the 1930s. If we insist on improvising and not facing our real problems, we might soon lose our status as a country to be emulated and join the ranks of those nations we have patronized for so long.
    My bolds.
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...032502226.html

  • #2
    Re: Ex-IMF Official Echoes Dmitri Orlov: US Now Like Soviet Union, Argentina

    That's it. You get a controlled devaluation, like in the seventies, or something that will resemble the Civil War, with very high inflation rates. The US and especially the UK, is looking like super sized versions of Iceland.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Ex-IMF Official Echoes Dmitri Orlov: US Now Like Soviet Union, Argentina

      You never get supreme arrogance in the absence of looming calamity. Because 'it cannot happen here' is precisely the reason it will happen here. Look at all the sacred cows that have toppled over the last twelve months. Anything is possible.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Ex-IMF Official Echoes Dmitri Orlov: US Now Like Soviet Union, Argentina

        From what I have read over the years about the IMF's activities (which admittedly is not a huge volume), can you take anything seriously that comes from an IMF official? Has the IMF EVER provided proper financial and fiscal advice to a country in trouble? I am of the impression that their modus operandi was typically to add fuel to existing fires...similar to our current path of solving the debt bubble via more debt...although for them, I think it was to typically advise raising spending and raising taxes. Yes, we have some major issues in the U.S., but God help us if the IMF is the answer.
        "...the western financial system has already failed. The failure has just not yet been realized, while the system remains confident that it is still alive." Jesse

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Ex-IMF Official Echoes Dmitri Orlov: US Now Like Soviet Union, Argentina

          My new garage is now completed, and the roof replacement on my house comes next. So let the stinkers in Washington or Ottawa, in the IMF or wherever, de-value the dollar or the beaver buck. Let them raise interest rates and de-value real estate even more, but I can still live in my house. No-one can take my house from me, no-matter what real estate is worth and no-matter what paper money is worth.

          When all of the cash earning zero interest will be out of my brokerage account, all of the happenings around me will become irrelevant and just entertainment..... And let the brokerage firms and banks worry about finding new suckers for their zero interest money market and zero interest savings accounts. ;)

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Ex-IMF Official Echoes Dmitri Orlov: US Now Like Soviet Union, Argentina

            Originally posted by Starving Steve View Post
            My new garage is now completed, and the roof replacement on my house comes next. So let the stinkers in Washington or Ottawa, in the IMF or wherever, de-value the dollar or the beaver buck. Let them raise interest rates and de-value real estate even more, but I can still live in my house. No-one can take my house from me, no-matter what real estate is worth and no-matter what paper money is worth.

            When all of the cash earning zero interest will be out of my brokerage account, all of the happenings around me will become irrelevant and just entertainment..... And let the brokerage firms and banks worry about finding new suckers for their zero interest money market and zero interest savings accounts. ;)
            Congrats on removing yourself from the treadmill.

            "I'm just sittin' here watchin' the wheels go 'round and 'round." ...John Lennon
            "...the western financial system has already failed. The failure has just not yet been realized, while the system remains confident that it is still alive." Jesse

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Ex-IMF Official Echoes Dmitri Orlov: US Now Like Soviet Union, Argentina

              Originally posted by Starving Steve View Post
              My new garage is now completed, and the roof replacement on my house comes next. So let the stinkers in Washington or Ottawa, in the IMF or wherever, de-value the dollar or the beaver buck. Let them raise interest rates and de-value real estate even more, but I can still live in my house. No-one can take my house from me, no-matter what real estate is worth and no-matter what paper money is worth.

              When all of the cash earning zero interest will be out of my brokerage account, all of the happenings around me will become irrelevant and just entertainment..... And let the brokerage firms and banks worry about finding new suckers for their zero interest money market and zero interest savings accounts. ;)
              Wrongo, bucko. There are NO PRIVATE PROPERTY RIGHTS enshrined in the Canadian constitution. And although some still live under the delusion that property rights are enshrined in the US constitution, I think we can safely say that recent US Supreme Court decisions regarding eminent domain put paid to that.

              If the idea of massive taxpayer funded mass transit and railway infrastructure ever takes off, just watch how often eminent domain is used in the "Land of the Free and Home of the Brave"...

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Ex-IMF Official Echoes Dmitri Orlov: US Now Like Soviet Union, Argentina

                Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                If the idea of massive taxpayer funded mass transit and railway infrastructure ever takes off, just watch how often eminent domain is used in the "Land of the Free and Home of the Brave"...
                At least that's one way to get a house sold in this market.
                "...the western financial system has already failed. The failure has just not yet been realized, while the system remains confident that it is still alive." Jesse

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Ex-IMF Official Echoes Dmitri Orlov: US Now Like Soviet Union, Argentina

                  Originally posted by rjwjr View Post
                  At least that's one way to get a house sold in this market.
                  Good one! Made my day...

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Ex-IMF Official Echoes Dmitri Orlov: US Now Like Soviet Union, Argentina

                    "No-one can take my house from me, no-matter what real estate is worth and no-matter what paper money is worth. "

                    Wrong, all they have to do is raise property taxes high enough that you can't pay, then they take your house.

                    Happened in Sweden, preferably to old age pensioners or poor country families living in attractive areas in the Stockholm archipelago as property values escalated. They finally made some changes in the tax laws to alleviate the problem, but that was in good times. You get the idea - "your" real estate is only yours as long as you can pay Ceasar his dues.
                    Justice is the cornerstone of the world

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Ex-IMF Official Echoes Dmitri Orlov: US Now Like Soviet Union, Argentina

                      Originally posted by rjwjr View Post
                      At least that's one way to get a house sold in this market.

                      Hi rjwjr,

                      Maybe not until they let it deflate a bit more and perhaps they will even pay off 90% of the value assuming future deflation.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Ex-IMF Official Echoes Dmitri Orlov: US Now Like Soviet Union, Argentina

                        good for you steve! from your post, i cant tell if your canadian or u.s.ian
                        down here in the states, try not paying your property taxes for a while and see if you really own your property.

                        My bill on a suburban house was $7500 USD. This is a nice house, but not a mcmansion. 2000SF track house. between all the stuff i have to pay to live ,I still worry about having enough cash. If i find myself unemployed, i will have no health insurance. replacing that will cost me 10K if no one gets seriously ill, then we have to eat, and heat our house and maybe drive. A few years of big inflation and that pile of cash you have may not be so big, being chipped away at 30 - 40k a year from the expense side, and lets say 10% a year on the inflation side. I suppose once your pile of cash is gone, you can drop your health insurance, because you can just show up at the hospital and get your care for free. If I move to a trailer in the sun belt, I can get my property taxes almost to 0, and not have to have a 3K a year home energy bill. If i get rid of my two 10 year old cars, I can save on that too. So if push came to shove, my existence level might be 10K per year. If i can bike to walmart I think I can take home 10K for a full years work. I dont mean to be mean, but dont be neive either.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Ex-IMF Official Echoes Dmitri Orlov: US Now Like Soviet Union, Argentina

                          Just did the same thing myself Steve two days ago. Cash sitting in my brokerage account for the last 18 months has been taken out. After hearing the CEO of overstock.com rant again about the Wall street scam I decided to channel any potential new investment in a new business I am starting. I give the new business 50% chance of making money, but that's a damn sight better than that bullshit of Wall street. May as well put the dollars somewhere. It wasn't a big enough pile to warrant a stocking up of gold coins.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Ex-IMF Official Echoes Dmitri Orlov: US Now Like Soviet Union, Argentina

                            Originally posted by cobben View Post
                            "No-one can take my house from me, no-matter what real estate is worth and no-matter what paper money is worth. "

                            Wrong, all they have to do is raise property taxes high enough that you can't pay, then they take your house.

                            Happened in Sweden, preferably to old age pensioners or poor country families living in attractive areas in the Stockholm archipelago as property values escalated. They finally made some changes in the tax laws to alleviate the problem, but that was in good times. You get the idea - "your" real estate is only yours as long as you can pay Ceasar his dues.
                            The same thing happened in California, until the voters rebelled and passed Proposition 13, which limited tax increases to 1% per year. What were the specific changes in the tax laws in Sweden?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Ex-IMF Official Echoes Dmitri Orlov: US Now Like Soviet Union, Argentina

                              wait... first bill moyers, then rolling stone, then atlantic monthly, now wash post...

                              if it's in the was post, isn't it over?

                              that's like tass declaring putin an oligarch. it's true but you only declare it when it no longer matters, like jon stewart calling out jj cramer.

                              aren't the oligarch's officially doomed? their 30 yr stranglehold on the economy at an end?

                              shouldn't i go long stocks?

                              (ok, ok... first itulip)

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