Oracle 1990, vs Sunpower 2009, history repeating

[nero3]

Enjoy

The same thing applies to dry bulk shippers, water treatment, and agricultural commodities. That's the future, as the US move towards runaway inflation.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=O...=0;logscale=on

[Guest]

Re: Oracle 1990, vs Sunpower 2009, history repeating

Nero - doesn't tell quite the same ebullient story on a two year time scale.

Enjoy

The same thing applies to dry bulk shippers, water treatment, and agricultural commodities. That's the future, as the US move towards runaway inflation.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=O...=0;logscale=on

ORACLE VS. SUN POWER - AKA - NOT_SO_HOT.jpg

[nero3]

Re: Oracle 1990, vs Sunpower 2009, history repeating

I wonder how an overlay of the 1998-1991, vs 2006-2009 would be, if it would be a match. I have a feeling, the US will just buy more and more treasuries ,and you get inflation rates similar or worst to the seventies, and a boom, in more or less anything, especially alternative energy, as that makes a lot of sense, if you can finance it cheap, in an environment of high inflation and rising energy prices.

[metalman]

Re: Oracle 1990, vs Sunpower 2009, history repeating

I wonder how an overlay of the 1998-1991, vs 2006-2009 would be, if it would be a match. I have a feeling, the US will just buy more and more treasuries ,and you get inflation rates similar or worst to the seventies, and a boom, in more or less anything, especially alternative energy, as that makes a lot of sense, if you can finance it cheap, in an environment of high inflation and rising energy prices.

study ej's analysis of the fire econ. the fire econ miraculously produced asset price inflation without goods/services price inflation via monetary policy... deflated wages and inflated assets... and pushed the dollar higher. all but the dollar are running in fast reverse, and soon enough the dollar, too... as oil and gold are telling us. your chart completely ignores the fundamental economic event of our time, the birth and death throes of the fire econ. no more asset price inflation. the next inflation is the other kind that takes deflating asset prices and smashes them as interest rates rise.

[nero3]

Re: Oracle 1990, vs Sunpower 2009, history repeating

study ej's analysis of the fire econ. the fire econ miraculously produced asset price inflation without goods/services price inflation via monetary policy... deflated wages and inflated assets... and pushed the dollar higher. all but the dollar are running in fast reverse, and soon enough the dollar, too... as oil and gold are telling us. your chart completely ignores the fundamental economic event of our time, the birth and death throes of the fire econ. no more asset price inflation. the next inflation is the other kind that takes deflating asset prices and smashes them as interest rates rise.

I don't think so. I think the buying of treasuries, will create rising house prices, rising inflation, weaker dollar, further boom in emerging economies, further carry trades, boom in agricultural commodities, etc. It's like what the US did to finance WW2 (buy treasuries, mixed with wage and price controls), just in the 2009 world of modern computerized finance. I think what is gone is the asset price inflation disconnected from CPI inflation. I think the US will suffer a lot of stagnation, in the general market, but some thing will stand out. I think the emerging market's will have more of a "clean boom", with out the stagnation the general US stock market will suffer.

[Guest]

Re: Oracle 1990, vs Sunpower 2009, history repeating

Nero3 - I actually agree with you almost completely here. I only think the emerging markets will be weaker, and we'll be treated to the truly strange, weird spectacle of the US indexes booming on the leadership of alt-energy, exactly as you envision. So I agree, just with a slightly different emphasis, that the rotten-to-the-core US indexes will lead this bull run. We sure don't have many takers here at iTulip on this thesis, ey?

I don't think so. I think the buying of treasuries, will create rising house prices, rising inflation, weaker dollar, further boom in emerging economies, further carry trades, boom in agricultural commodities, etc. It's like what the US did to finance WW2 (buy treasuries, mixed with wage and price controls), just in the 2009 world of modern computerized finance. I think what is gone is the asset price inflation disconnected from CPI inflation. I think the US will suffer a lot of stagnation, in the general market, but some thing will stand out. I think the emerging market's will have more of a "clean boom", with out the stagnation the general US stock market will suffer.

[nero3]

Re: Oracle 1990, vs Sunpower 2009, history repeating

Nero3 - I actually agree with you almost completely here. I only think the emerging markets will be weaker, and we'll be treated to the truly strange, weird spectacle of the US indexes booming on the leadership of alt-energy, exactly as you envision. So I agree, just with a slightly different emphasis, that the rotten-to-the-core US indexes will lead this bull run. We sure don't have many takers here at iTulip on this thesis, ey?

I actually think the emerging market's will be stronger, in some kind of carry trade based on the weaker dollar, and that will drive energy ,agriculture, that in turn will drive the alternative energy boom in the US, that said I have a lot of money invested in US stocks, even bank shares I'm a big bull on the US going forward, it's as simple as the fact that you have a printing press in the US. No other country have that, as long as the dollar is the reserve currency. That virtually ensures that the US will emerge out of this in much better shape than many other countries.

[Guest]

Re: Oracle 1990, vs Sunpower 2009, history repeating

Very independent thinking here within the iTulip community Nero3. I commend it and admire it. I think you may be all lined up for the one segment that will deliver gargantuan returns in the next 18 months to two year, and I am trying to get my nerve up to follow you in this same thesis.

I actually think the emerging market's will be stronger, in some kind of carry trade based on the weaker dollar, and that will drive energy ,agriculture, that in turn will drive the alternative energy boom in the US, that said I have a lot of money invested in US stocks, even bank shares I'm a big bull on the US going forward, it's as simple as the fact that you have a printing press in the US. No other country have that, as long as the dollar is the reserve currency. That virtually ensures that the US will emerge out of this in much better shape than many other countries.

[nero3]

Re: Oracle 1990, vs Sunpower 2009, history repeating

Very independent thinking here within the iTulip community Nero3. I commend it and admire it. I think you may be all lined up for the one segment that will deliver gargantuan returns in the next 18 months to two year, and I am trying to get my nerve up to follow you in this same thesis.

Who knows how the market's will go, I think the tide will come back in pressured out from the sidelines through currency devaluations, or as some more good data comes out, it might happen on itself, and that this will drive the market's and sentiments.

I really have no sure way of knowing how the market's will go into the future, other that I don't think they won't suffer a full correction to the DOW 3500-4000 level.

Bernanke hinted today, in the hearing that stocks would had lost 70 % had they not saved AIG. Now it went to around 60 %, and the dollar is devalued a lot through the various programs. I think both bernanke and geithner seems to be more at the ball, lately, more assertive and agressive, less fearful.

More things coming into the picture now, is spring testosterone, and some animal spirits related to that. All good stuff for the market's. One more thing. Summers and his crowd, are kind of desperate to create some sort of 90-s like economy. I think the connection is so strong between the fed and the administration that they will to everything they can in the fed to help the current administration. If they manage a US bubble, the dollar could strenghten, and money once again, like the 90-s could get sucked into the US boosting the dollar, weakening commodity prices, boosting profit margins, creating some kind of final blow off bubble. All this regulation talk is like the 1991, when Gordon Brown talked about his "no more boom and bust".

[GRG55]

Re: Oracle 1990, vs Sunpower 2009, history repeating

I wonder how an overlay of the 1998-1991, vs 2006-2009 would be, if it would be a match. I have a feeling, the US will just buy more and more treasuries ,and you get inflation rates similar or worst to the seventies, and a boom, in more or less anything, especially alternative energy, as that makes a lot of sense, if you can finance it cheap, in an environment of high inflation and rising energy prices.

The only way that alt energy is going to be a play is if governments bring some clarity to the carbon emissions/carbon tax situation. In the absence of that, the money stays on the sidelines or goes somewhere else.

[GRG55]

Re: Oracle 1990, vs Sunpower 2009, history repeating

I actually think the emerging market's will be stronger, in some kind of carry trade based on the weaker dollar, and that will drive energy ,agriculture, that in turn will drive the alternative energy boom in the US, that said I have a lot of money invested in US stocks, even bank shares I'm a big bull on the US going forward, it's as simple as the fact that you have a printing press in the US. No other country have that, as long as the dollar is the reserve currency. That virtually ensures that the US will emerge out of this in much better shape than many other countries.

Who knows how the market's will go, I think the tide will come back in pressured out from the sidelines through currency devaluations, or as some more good data comes out, it might happen on itself, and that this will drive the market's and sentiments.

I really have no sure way of knowing how the market's will go into the future, other that I don't think they won't suffer a full correction to the DOW 3500-4000 level.

Bernanke hinted today, in the hearing that stocks would had lost 70 % had they not saved AIG. Now it went to around 60 %, and the dollar is devalued a lot through the various programs. I think both bernanke and geithner seems to be more at the ball, lately, more assertive and agressive, less fearful.

More things coming into the picture now, is spring testosterone, and some animal spirits related to that. All good stuff for the market's. One more thing. Summers and his crowd, are kind of desperate to create some sort of 90-s like economy. I think the connection is so strong between the fed and the administration that they will to everything they can in the fed to help the current administration. If they manage a US bubble, the dollar could strenghten, and money once again, like the 90-s could get sucked into the US boosting the dollar, weakening commodity prices, boosting profit margins, creating some kind of final blow off bubble. All this regulation talk is like the 1991, when Gordon Brown talked about his "no more boom and bust".

A cyclical "recovery" on the back of all the money being printed seems likely, but a structural recovery of the sort you appear to be describing needs a lot more than what we have seen so far.

I am inclined towards $#*'s cynical outlook. The politicians will take the expedient route and do everything to reflate some variation of the FIRE economy. Whether that is "free money", no risk private/public partnerships to purchase high risk paper from the banks, or whether it evolves to a rigged carbon trading club favouring a select group of insiders, is to be seen. But regardless this will just set up for the next, even worse, wave down because the structural issues will not have been addressed.

This is the scenario that one of EJs contacts described a short time ago...where everything starts to look rosy, J6P sells his gold thinking he ducked the bullet, and then gets completely wiped out with a head shot in the next downwave...

[nero3]

Re: Oracle 1990, vs Sunpower 2009, history repeating

A cyclical "recovery" on the back of all the money being printed seems likely, but a structural recovery of the sort you appear to be describing needs a lot more than what we have seen so far.

I am inclined towards $#*'s cynical outlook. The politicians will take the expedient route and do everything to reflate some variation of the FIRE economy. Whether that is "free money", no risk private/public partnerships to purchase high risk paper from the banks, or whether it evolves to a rigged carbon trading club favouring a select group of insiders, is to be seen. But regardless this will just set up for the next, even worse, wave down because the structural issues will not have been addressed.

This is the scenario that one of EJs contacts described a short time ago...where everything starts to look rosy, J6P sells his gold thinking he ducked the bullet, and then gets completely wiped out with a head shot in the next downwave...

I think the buying of long term treasuries could paper over the structural issues, through relatively high inflation. Krugman have been talking about how he would like 5 % CPI inflation for some years ,and I think it's inflation in the range above what people are used to, that's coming.

[flintlock]

Re: Oracle 1990, vs Sunpower 2009, history repeating

Nero3 - I actually agree with you almost completely here. I only think the emerging markets will be weaker, and we'll be treated to the truly strange, weird spectacle of the US indexes booming on the leadership of alt-energy, exactly as you envision. So I agree, just with a slightly different emphasis, that the rotten-to-the-core US indexes will lead this bull run. We sure don't have many takers here at iTulip on this thesis, ey?

Alt energy boom? When?

[flintlock]

Re: Oracle 1990, vs Sunpower 2009, history repeating

Enjoy

The same thing applies to dry bulk shippers, water treatment, and agricultural commodities. That's the future, as the US move towards runaway inflation.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=O...=0;logscale=on

Please interpret for us dummies.

[nero3]

Re: Oracle 1990, vs Sunpower 2009, history repeating

Alt energy boom? When?

In 1998, when the panic was at these levels seen earlier in this Panic of 08-

8 dollar then, was like 35 now, so it's safe to assume, that with the new money being pumped in, oil will go up to around 90 just to match gold, I think it should go even higher, and probably to a new "baseline" level that is more than sufficient to drive a boom in alternative energy. What's the new level is hard to say, maybe it's 70 for the moment, and 35, and 140 dollar is on the outer extreme of the range, however with all the new money coming, that base level should move higher. If it was to move like in the seventies, oil should have no problem going to 700-1000 dollars over the next decade.