What is the post-FIRE economy?

[Sharky]

Since the fraud finance, insurance and real estate economy can't be restarted, what will the new economy look like that will take it's place?

People still have to eat, so farming will presumably still have a role -- although how farmers will dig themselves out their massive debt remains to be seen.

Energy, including oil, will still be needed. Resources too, although if construction and other forms of consumption are reduced, then it would seem resource consumption would also decline.

I would guess that tech will be pretty hard-hit, since FIRE-oriented companies were some of the biggest buyers (and financers) of tech.

Entertainment will probably flourish, as it has during past disasters, although probably at a lower price-point than today. People will still need health care and drugs, but it's hard to imagine how those industries will escape their current heavy regulatory attacks. Transportation and retail seem like they built capacity for an economy that doesn't exist any more.

What have I missed? I'm not looking for the next bubble, just industries that are likely to survive and hopefully do well.

[Supercilious]

Re: What is the post-FIRE economy?

The post FIRE economy is the BURNT ASHES economy.

BTW, the next thing will be renewables and reindustrialization, but the great, but the best money will be made from the carbon credits trading. The banking scam (private, fraudulent, hidden tax on all credit flows in the economy) is so yesterday. The carbon credit scam (private, fraudulent, hidden tax on all energy consumed in an economy)

The real stroke of genius is pushing of renewables in order to increase the consumption of taxable fosil fuels energy.

[occdude]

Re: What is the post-FIRE economy?

First, anything to do with liquidation and re-deployment of capital is going to do well in the next ten years.

Our basic economy will still be the same, if not alot more lackluster than the current economy. People will make a modest wage, live a modest life. No jet setting, no sextupletts, no 800pd bed bound people. Society will get alot more conservative, with fanciful notions of relativism and egalitarianism thoroughly rebuked. Hard work, frugality and honesty will again be highly valued.

We still will need to eat, shelter ourselves and clothe ourselves so basic industries will cater to that need. Fresh water production, food production, energy production or all types (renewable and non-renewable), continued robotization, automation and efficient transportation modes will still be needed and valued.

In short, the economy will look very bland for a while until it jumpstarts behind some new theme eg.internet,electricity,automobiles etc. Then you'll see more frivolity and relaxation on the absolute need to provide value.

One things for sure, it will look a lot more sustainable and fair than it looks now. You will not want to wring all these idiots necks all the time. People will stop acting like spoiled, pampered babies and more like adults again. More modest, less cheeky, possibly more coperative. Garish behavior will be very chided and ostracized.

I think the new upcoming economy will be a very good thing. I think people are going to have a hard time adjusitng at first, but acceptance always comes after anger. People will just have to get used to a new reality thats actually real (versus the bubble reality we're in now).

[medved]

Re: What is the post-FIRE economy?

First, anything to do with liquidation and re-deployment of capital is going to do well in the next ten years. Our basic economy will still be the same, if not alot more lackluster than the current economy.

Yes, it will be lackluster, but it will not be the same, because the govt’s part in it will be much bigger. All these discussions bouncing between inflation and deflation are missing yet another major –ation: regulation. We will regulate all the problems into submission. Right now we are printing money like there is no tomorrow, but the moment anything poses an inflationary threat, it will be regulated and price controlled.

The greedy and stupid bankers will be replaced by smart and honest government employees working for the common good. Medical care will be nationalized, it will be cheap (price control!) and yet very good (high standards! ). The same applies to energy. Government will print enough money to create and subsidize the alternative energy sources, but the energy price control and rationing will keep the energy market in the right place. So no inflation there either.

People will make a modest wage, live a modest life. No jet setting, no sextuplets, no 800pd bed bound people. Society will get a lot more conservative, with fanciful notions of relativism and egalitarianism thoroughly rebuked. Hard work, frugality and honesty will again be highly valued.

Modest – yes. Conservative – no. Relativism and egalitarianism will be the cornerstones of the new society. In a highly regulated society the rules are so complicated and so removed from the reality, you just cannot comply. If you think, US tax code is out of whack, think again. The coming regulation will be much heavier and much more twisted. So, no person in his sound mind will be completely sure, he complies with all the rules, and everybody will feel a bit of a cheater. Since everybody is a cheater anyway, everybody will quickly get used to transact in the black market, be it buying/selling gold or bribing his doctor for some extra care he is not supposed to provide.

We still will need to eat, shelter ourselves and clothe ourselves so basic industries will cater to that need. Fresh water production, food production, energy production or all types (renewable and non-renewable), continued robotization, automation and efficient transportation modes will still be needed and valued.

Yes, these things will be needed, but they will not be valued any more, than cheap/free education. Whatever is provided by the gov’t at a low/no cost is never valued. And it has to be provided by the gov’t, because these thing are so important, everybody has the right to all of them.

In short, the economy will look very bland for a while until it jumpstarts behind some new theme eg.internet,electricity,automobiles etc.

Yes, it will get bland and it will remain bland. Forever.

The government bubble is the only one, that keeps growing and never bursts.

[cjppjc]

Re: What is the post-FIRE economy?

Yes, it will be lackluster, but it will not be the same, because the govt’s part in it will be much bigger. All these discussions bouncing between inflation and deflation are missing yet another major –ation: regulation. We will regulate all the problems into submission. Right now we are printing money like there is no tomorrow, but the moment anything poses an inflationary threat, it will be regulated and price controlled.

The greedy and stupid bankers will be replaced by smart and honest government employees working for the common good. Medical care will be nationalized, it will be cheap (price control!) and yet very good (high standards! ). The same applies to energy. Government will print enough money to create and subsidize the alternative energy sources, but the energy price control and rationing will keep the energy market in the right place. So no inflation there either.



Modest – yes. Conservative – no. Relativism and egalitarianism will be the cornerstones of the new society. In a highly regulated society the rules are so complicated and so removed from the reality, you just cannot comply. If you think, US tax code is out of whack, think again. The coming regulation will be much heavier and much more twisted. So, no person in his sound mind will be completely sure, he complies with all the rules, and everybody will feel a bit of a cheater. Since everybody is a cheater anyway, everybody will quickly get used to transact in the black market, be it buying/selling gold or bribing his doctor for some extra care he is not supposed to provide.



Yes, these things will be needed, but they will not be valued any more, than cheap/free education. Whatever is provided by the gov’t at a low/no cost is never valued. And it has to be provided by the gov’t, because these thing are so important, everybody has the right to all of them.



Yes, it will get bland and it will remain bland. Forever.

The government bubble is the only one, that keeps growing and never bursts.

You are kidding right?

[snakela]

Re: What is the post-FIRE economy?

The new new new economy will be pornography based as an indebted consumer with no other skills Asian creditors need tries to make ends meet.

[flintlock]

Re: What is the post-FIRE economy?

The greedy and stupid bankers will be replaced by smart and honest government employees working for the common good. Medical care will be nationalized, it will be cheap (price control!) and yet very good (high standards! ). The same applies to energy. Government will print enough money to create and subsidize the alternative energy sources, but the energy price control and rationing will keep the energy market in the right place. So no inflation there either.

Ha, good one.

Farmers will do fine. Unless government institute price controls, then we'll just have shortages

Government will continue to grow. Too many people, too few REAL jobs. So government will give them jobs.

Anything outside of government will become leaner and more efficient. They'll have to make do with less. People will wise up and stop throwing their money at inefficient corrupt corporations who squander it.

Retail will shrink, a lot.

Tech will shrink too and become more focused on real improvements and not just technology for technology's sake.( The combo cellphone/toaster project will be shelved.) Gadgets don't seem so necessary when you are hungry.

Biggest thing I fear is a French Revolution type mob mentality taking over. A "blame the rich" type overreaction.

[petertribo]

Re: What is the post-FIRE economy?

People still have to eat, so farming will presumably still have a role -- although how farmers will dig themselves out their massive debt remains to be seen.

Sure, you have to eat. But FIREA (Agribusiness) plans to get a bite out of everything you chew. Just like the FIRE guys they want a piece of all the eating action. They already have a good portion through the Fast Food (not really food) Racket, huge conglomerates financed by the FIRE guys.

So, of course, they want to criminalize their competition:

USA: Possible $1,000,000 Fine For GROWING A Tomato

These Corporate Criminals have big plans for all your consuming needs. After all, it's those outside the Rackets who have to pay the bill. The Pool of citizens whom they can loot and pillage is becoming smaller and smaller, therefore the need to steal more. I've already disconnected as much as possible from these Crooks and starve them wherever and whenever possible. See you in the tomato patch at an undisclosed location.

[raja]

Re: What is the post-FIRE economy?

IMO . . . if we experience a big global meltdown, which I think we will, the theme of the new economy will be poverty.

Since my wife is Ukraine, and they've been living in poverty for awhile, I use that as my model of how things will be . . . .

There will be less of everything . . . fewer jobs, fewer stores, less money to spend, less state and local services (think potholes in the roads), less choice in products, fewer restaurants, less medical services, less driving, etc.

People deprived of what they think they deserve will get nastier. There will be more crime, more con men. Little mafias will spring up everywhere, with the nastier folks trying to control the money flow. Police corruption. Lots more petty robberies. More minority bashing, drugs, and violence.

After the separation of Ukraine from the Soviet system, there was a hyperinflation. My wife's parents went to the bank one day and the banksters said "Your money is frozen." Several years later they said, "You can have your money now, but it's worth 1/100th of what it was worth before."

My wife's daughter had appendicitis while I was there. She was picked up by an ambulance that looked like one from the 1920s. Driving to the hospital was very painful for the girl, because the whole town road system is filled with potholes . . . in fact, every road is about 85% potholes. (Town of 50,000 in south-central Ukraine). We had to bribe the head doctor to use a different anesthesiologist from the one on duty, a known drunk.

The elevator in my wife's apartment hadn't been inspected for 10 years. She told me it stopped mid-floor every few weeks. I often climbed the 9 flights of stairs to avoid using it.

Everyone knows that the police are corrupt. You have to worry about walking the streets at night, because the police will shake you down. The "mafia" bosses are more trustworthy than government officials, because their motives are clear -- money (government officials are often just nasty). The prime minister of Ukraine was in jail for stealing big money when she was in office before, but the people elected her again since they thought she will probably steal less now that she has plenty.

Every business has two sets of accounting books, and if the authorities come, it's often an innocent clerk girl that takes the fall.

My wife needs to send in a form to Ukraine, and we call up the US Ukrainian embassy to do it. The man who answers the phone says that we better hurry, because he's nearly out of forms and it will take a year to get them from Ukraine.

The customs control agents as you enter the country often do not know the laws, or ignore them. You will get different treatment depending upon where you come into the country, or who's on the job that day. There is no enforced standardization -- it's chaos.

Ukraine is an example of what happens to a country of intelligent, industrious people who live in poverty. I hope the US isn't headed there, but I think it is.

[don]

Re: What is the post-FIRE economy?

Post-FIRE? No such thing short of a revolution. FIRE will not run shrieking from the national parlor because it's been outed by a handful of journalists or be extinguished by Bill Moyers saying the word oligarchy. Instead we'll see FIRE both deepen its claws and fangs into its current cash flows while creating new fees we haven't even dreamed of yet. Moribund? That will be us. And the popular moralizing about a post-FIRE world doesn't include the robust underground economy that is a certainty. For their survival Americanos will learn to be furtive, sneaky and invisible. A return to an "honest, upstanding citizenry like we had in the 30s" is not going to happen and never did. Taking those 30's government propaganda films of Dad, in shirt and tie, Mom in a house dress, and the two kids sitting on the floor, all politely listening to the radio (FDR I presume) at face value leaves out a few details (factory occupations, general strikes, the American Bund, Father Coughlin, migrants, etc.) of what the 30s were really all about.

[Supercilious]

Re: What is the post-FIRE economy?

The greedy and stupid bankers will be replaced by smart and honest government employees working for the common good. Medical care will be nationalized, it will be cheap (price control!) and yet very good (high standards! ). The same applies to energy. Government will print enough money to create and subsidize the alternative energy sources, but the energy price control and rationing will keep the energy market in the right place. So no inflation there either.

Ha ha ha! Medved this was sublime. You described perfectly the "alternative" insinuated in Zeitgeist: Orientation presentation.

The government bubble is the only one, that keeps growing and never bursts.

That is absolutely true. And there is a clear reason for that.

[metalman]

Re: What is the post-FIRE economy?

Yes, it will be lackluster, but it will not be the same, because the govt’s part in it will be much bigger. All these discussions bouncing between inflation and deflation are missing yet another major –ation: regulation. We will regulate all the problems into submission. Right now we are printing money like there is no tomorrow, but the moment anything poses an inflationary threat, it will be regulated and price controlled.

The greedy and stupid bankers will be replaced by smart and honest government employees working for the common good. Medical care will be nationalized, it will be cheap (price control!) and yet very good (high standards! ). The same applies to energy. Government will print enough money to create and subsidize the alternative energy sources, but the energy price control and rationing will keep the energy market in the right place. So no inflation there either.



Modest – yes. Conservative – no. Relativism and egalitarianism will be the cornerstones of the new society. In a highly regulated society the rules are so complicated and so removed from the reality, you just cannot comply. If you think, US tax code is out of whack, think again. The coming regulation will be much heavier and much more twisted. So, no person in his sound mind will be completely sure, he complies with all the rules, and everybody will feel a bit of a cheater. Since everybody is a cheater anyway, everybody will quickly get used to transact in the black market, be it buying/selling gold or bribing his doctor for some extra care he is not supposed to provide.



Yes, these things will be needed, but they will not be valued any more, than cheap/free education. Whatever is provided by the gov’t at a low/no cost is never valued. And it has to be provided by the gov’t, because these thing are so important, everybody has the right to all of them.



Yes, it will get bland and it will remain bland. Forever.

The government bubble is the only one, that keeps growing and never bursts.

best deadpan humor on itulip in months...

[leegs]

Re: What is the post-FIRE economy?

The following is just a gut feeling, not based on any well-thought analysis.

I suspect that there will be a recovery of sorts over the next several years. House prices will bottom, and the stock market will improve (maybe even Lukester's big rally;)). Unemployment will be high but not increasing. The general public will think that 'things are gonna be ok', although even during this 'recovery' things will be a bit lackluster. I also think that the predictions other posters have made are correct about ever-increasing government involvement in private life.

BUT it will all be very temporary, a final (?) oscillation in the 'death wabble' or 'tank slapper' (to borrow from the 'Fed starts printing press: $1T+ in additional purchases' thread http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...bble#post85140) that is our economy. It will be during the second phase of this cycle that we will experience the serious doom and gloom that has been discussed at great length on this forum.

And Medved, that post really was great.

[occdude]

Re: What is the post-FIRE economy?

Yes, it will be lackluster, but it will not be the same, because the govt’s part in it will be much bigger. All these discussions bouncing between inflation and deflation are missing yet another major –ation: regulation. We will regulate all the problems into submission. Right now we are printing money like there is no tomorrow, but the moment anything poses an inflationary threat, it will be regulated and price controlled.

The greedy and stupid bankers will be replaced by smart and honest government employees working for the common good. Medical care will be nationalized, it will be cheap (price control!) and yet very good (high standards! ). The same applies to energy. Government will print enough money to create and subsidize the alternative energy sources, but the energy price control and rationing will keep the energy market in the right place. So no inflation there either.



Modest – yes. Conservative – no. Relativism and egalitarianism will be the cornerstones of the new society. In a highly regulated society the rules are so complicated and so removed from the reality, you just cannot comply. If you think, US tax code is out of whack, think again. The coming regulation will be much heavier and much more twisted. So, no person in his sound mind will be completely sure, he complies with all the rules, and everybody will feel a bit of a cheater. Since everybody is a cheater anyway, everybody will quickly get used to transact in the black market, be it buying/selling gold or bribing his doctor for some extra care he is not supposed to provide.



Yes, these things will be needed, but they will not be valued any more, than cheap/free education. Whatever is provided by the gov’t at a low/no cost is never valued. And it has to be provided by the gov’t, because these thing are so important, everybody has the right to all of them.



Yes, it will get bland and it will remain bland. Forever.

The government bubble is the only one, that keeps growing and never bursts.

Ha, Ha. You think of that parody all yourself? Hang on we have a frustrated comic in our midst. Why don't you save all that humor for amateur night?

[medved]

Re: What is the post-FIRE economy?

Ha, Ha. You think of that parody all yourself? Hang on we have a frustrated comic in our midst. Why don't you save all that humor for amateur night?

Many a true word is spoken in jest. The line between parody and reality is not set in stone.

Perception of reality depends on personal experience and historical perspective. My personal experience is full of real examples you would consider “a bad joke”. When you read “1984” by George Orwell, you can consider it a parody, but I read it in a bad Samizdat copy in 1984 back in the former USSR. It did not feel like a parody to me. No more than a theory feels like a parody of the reality.

My view of the recent history (say, the last 200 years) was first formed by marxist brainwashing. Then, I made some effort to recover from it, and I am still in the process.

When I try to guess what will post-FIRE economy look like, I always come to the same conclusion: no purely “macroeconomical” analysis gives us a chance to guess it right. The coming change will be highly political. We will have a very different political system pretending nothing has changed. Just like pretending post-FED and post-FDR USA is the same as before them.

In short (and I am serious), regulation will play a major role post-FIRE. The gov’t will have much more (and constantly growing) regulating power. Some people are really happy and excited about it. I am not.