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On the Other Hand

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  • On the Other Hand

    This could be the companion thread to Optimism- Absolutely Necessary

    Try, Try Again, or Maybe Not

    By LESLIE BERLIN

    IF at first you don’t succeed, it doesn’t matter that you tried.
    That seems to be the message of a working paper prepared recently by a team at Harvard Business School. The study found that when it comes to venture-backed entrepreneurship, the only experience that counts is success.

    “The data are absolutely clear,” says Paul A. Gompers, a professor of business administration at the school and one of the study’s authors. “Does failure breed new knowledge or experience that can be leveraged into performance the second time around?” he asks. In some cases, yes, but over all, he says, “We found there is no benefit in terms of performance.”
    The study looked at several thousand venture-capital-backed companies from 1986 to 2003.

    Professor Gompers and his co-authors Anna Kovner, Josh Lerner and David S. Scharfstein found that first-time entrepreneurs who received venture capital funding had a 22 percent chance of success. Success was defined as going public or filing to go public; Professor Gompers says the results were similar when using other measures, like acquisition or merger.

    Already-successful entrepreneurs were far more likely to succeed again: their success rate for later venture-backed companies was 34 percent. But entrepreneurs whose companies had been liquidated or gone bankrupt had almost the same follow-on success rate as the first-timers: 23 percent.

    In other words, trying and failing bought the entrepreneurs nothing — it was as if they never tried. Or, as Professor Gompers puts it, “for the average entrepreneur who failed, no learning happened.”

    This finding flies in the face of conventional wisdom in Silicon Valley, where failure is regarded as an important opportunity for learning. No less an authority than Gordon Moore, a co-founder of Intel, says that in the Valley, “You’re more valuable because of the experiences you’ve been through under failures.”

    The basic idea behind the embrace of failure is this: Entrepreneurs who have built and then tried to save a company have seen what does and doesn’t work. This experience is viewed as excellent preparation for tough situations that might arise in a new venture.

    “Given conventional wisdom, we were expecting to find much lower differences between failed and successful entrepreneurs,” Professor Gompers concedes.

    Not all failures are equal.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/22/bu...l?ref=business

  • #2
    Re: On the Other Hand

    Interesting.

    I think the success rate is higher for the winners is because the second business they start is very likely to be similar to the first successful business they started. It'll be an expansion on the same idea, or maybe a different territory.

    I imagine, a widget inventor doesn't then start a new hairdressing salon chain or something like that.

    Of course, if the original business idea fails, you have to start at square one again (at least on the ideas front). Success would mean that the idea struck oil, and so there is a high likelihood of more oil in the area. If that makes sense.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: On the Other Hand

      In this Age of Cronyism, Neopotism, Influence, Corruption, maybe those guys should study the current dominant US Business Philosophy of Fail, Fail and Fail again at the taxpayers' expense. Seems to work for many business models not the least of which is the US Treasury.

      Thus we have America's CEO stating about his failing manager Timmie:

      Asked if Geithner had volunteered or asked whether to step down, Obama told Kroft, "No. And he shouldn't. And if he were to come to me, I'd say, 'Sorry, Buddy. You've still got the job.' [my bold] But look, he's got a lot of stuff on his plate. And he is doing a terrific job. And I take responsibility for not, I think, having given him as much help as he needs."
      http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/...n4873938.shtml

      So, Timmie, is in no matter what, to fail and fail again. Indeed, the country is now run by the Worst and The Dumbest who move from one failure to the next. Bonuses anyone?

      Anyone starting a legitimate business is going to have to carry one helluva useless load of well remunerated failures on their back.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: On the Other Hand

        [quote=petertribo;85797]

        Indeed, the country is now run by the Worst and The Dumbest who move from one failure to the next. Bonuses anyone?

        quote]


        Yes, I like when I hear advocates of bonuses saying "These people will leave."
        A) Who cares?
        B) Where are they going to go?
        C) Who cares?

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: On the Other Hand

          Who knew the "Peter Principle" had another level to go :eek:

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: On the Other Hand

            prior successes may make it easier to get extra funding if a project is in doubt. this would explain a higher success rate without implying anyone learned anything on the prior round.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: On the Other Hand

              [quote=cjppjc;85801]
              Originally posted by petertribo View Post

              Indeed, the country is now run by the Worst and The Dumbest who move from one failure to the next. Bonuses anyone?

              quote]


              Yes, I like when I hear advocates of bonuses saying "These people will leave."
              A) Who cares?
              B) Where are they going to go?
              C) Who cares?
              Bush is getting $150k to talk. A more emphatic example could not be created out of whole cloth.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: On the Other Hand

                This seems to tie-in well with another recent thread:

                http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8882

                The idea that failures help people do better later is nothing more than untested intuition. But the logic for that intution is faulty. The personal values, business approaches, logic, etc, that caused them to fail the first time will still be there the second an subsequent times. To learn and grow means to accept that they were personally responsible in some way. But it's human nature to blame their failures on someone else....

                Comment

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