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Almost time for the Fed to sink the rafts?
http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7863
March 17 (Bloomberg) -- Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Federal Reserve policy makers may have to ramp up their purchases of mortgage securities and other assets after the economy and job market deteriorated further since they last met.
The Federal Open Market Committee, gathering today and tomorrow in Washington, needs to redouble its efforts after the central bank’s balance sheet shrank 17 percent from a $2.3 trillion December peak, Fed watchers said. The retreat came even as Bernanke acknowledged the chance that the unemployment rate will exceed 10 percent for the first time in a quarter century.
“It takes massive balance-sheet expansion to generate significant easing in financial conditions,” said Andrew Tilton, an economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York who used to work at the Treasury. “More needs to be done.”
This week’s FOMC meeting could mark a shift toward more aggressive monetary expansion to fight deflation after demand waned for many of the Fed’s existing programs. One top consideration is an increase in the pace and size of a $600 billion program to buy bonds issued and backed by U.S. housing agencies such as Fannie Mae, analysts said.
Other measures could include everything from purchases of Treasuries to corporate bonds, Tilton said. The Fed has already agreed to work with the Treasury on implementing a program to revive consumer and business loans, which the Obama administration has said could reach $1 trillion.
The Federal Open Market Committee, gathering today and tomorrow in Washington, needs to redouble its efforts after the central bank’s balance sheet shrank 17 percent from a $2.3 trillion December peak, Fed watchers said. The retreat came even as Bernanke acknowledged the chance that the unemployment rate will exceed 10 percent for the first time in a quarter century.
“It takes massive balance-sheet expansion to generate significant easing in financial conditions,” said Andrew Tilton, an economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York who used to work at the Treasury. “More needs to be done.”
This week’s FOMC meeting could mark a shift toward more aggressive monetary expansion to fight deflation after demand waned for many of the Fed’s existing programs. One top consideration is an increase in the pace and size of a $600 billion program to buy bonds issued and backed by U.S. housing agencies such as Fannie Mae, analysts said.
Other measures could include everything from purchases of Treasuries to corporate bonds, Tilton said. The Fed has already agreed to work with the Treasury on implementing a program to revive consumer and business loans, which the Obama administration has said could reach $1 trillion.
http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7863
Sink the rafts
The government gods want to entice capital out of low risk assets like government bonds and into risky assets like stocks. If that cannot be accomplished by making government bonds appear more risky than stocks, why not do it the other way around? Let us return to our Japan “bond bubble” example.
Coming to a country and equity market near you.
The government gods want to entice capital out of low risk assets like government bonds and into risky assets like stocks. If that cannot be accomplished by making government bonds appear more risky than stocks, why not do it the other way around? Let us return to our Japan “bond bubble” example.
Japan’s 10-year bonds completed their biggest decline in a month after rising Asian stocks reduced demand for government debt.
Bonds slid for a fifth day, the longest losing streak since July 2007, after U.S. shares rallied yesterday when Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the government will step up efforts to fight the recession. Demand for debt also waned after the Bank of Japan said yesterday it will start buying equities owned by financial institutions to shore up their capital. - Japan’s Bonds Complete Biggest Drop in a Month as Stocks Rise, Theresa Barraclough, Bloomberg, Feb. 4, 2008
Statements like the one below used to shock us, but not anymore. In the desperate global scramble by governments to re-inflate asset prices, anything goes.Bonds slid for a fifth day, the longest losing streak since July 2007, after U.S. shares rallied yesterday when Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the government will step up efforts to fight the recession. Demand for debt also waned after the Bank of Japan said yesterday it will start buying equities owned by financial institutions to shore up their capital. - Japan’s Bonds Complete Biggest Drop in a Month as Stocks Rise, Theresa Barraclough, Bloomberg, Feb. 4, 2008
“We are facing hyper-deflation, so we need a policy to create hyper-inflation. We have to do something to undermine the central bank and government’s credibility or else we won’t be able to halt the yen’s rise. So, while we know this is drastic medicine, we will do it,” said Koutaro Tamura, an upper house Diet member who will chair the new group. - MPs step up clash with Bank of Japan, Michiyo Nakamoto in Tokyo, Financial Times, Feb. 5, 2009
If you wonder what is going on in Japan to inspire Japanese politicians to make public promises to override that nation's central bank, you have not been following Japan's stunning economic collapse.The numbers coming out of Japan are no longer about degradation, but historically unprecedented destruction. If the government pointers are correct, they are no longer suggesting a recession or even a depression of the style of the 1930s but something like a massive "Reset button" with very different and far-reaching consequences. This downward spiral is much faster, much more synchronised, resulting in an impact equivalent to one year's worth of declines in the 1930s on a monthly basis, month-in month-out. It is as if the whole country has been visited by an army of King-Kongs, who are busy destroying the industrial output.
Japan's industrial production fell almost 10% in December compared with November, worse than the METI (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry) forecast. METI has re-done its forecasts for January to a 9% drop, and February down another 5%. That knocks almost 30% output since September, putting it back, at the level of the early 1980s. It took 25 years to reach levels that have been unwound in five months. For carmakers, production may fall by around 50% from last year in 2009. There has never been data this bad for any major economy: even during The Great Depression of the 1930s. If METI's January and February industrial production data is correct, the proportions are apocalyptic. Masaaki Shirakawa, Bank of Japan Governor, recently warned, “The outlook for the Japanese economy has deteriorated dramatically and there is a high probability that it will continue to do so.” more...
There you have it, a way to get to get frightened investors out of government bonds and back into stocks if all else fails -- central banks around the world print money and buy stocks -- and a motive to do it, a rapid global economic contraction. Japan's industrial production fell almost 10% in December compared with November, worse than the METI (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry) forecast. METI has re-done its forecasts for January to a 9% drop, and February down another 5%. That knocks almost 30% output since September, putting it back, at the level of the early 1980s. It took 25 years to reach levels that have been unwound in five months. For carmakers, production may fall by around 50% from last year in 2009. There has never been data this bad for any major economy: even during The Great Depression of the 1930s. If METI's January and February industrial production data is correct, the proportions are apocalyptic. Masaaki Shirakawa, Bank of Japan Governor, recently warned, “The outlook for the Japanese economy has deteriorated dramatically and there is a high probability that it will continue to do so.” more...
Coming to a country and equity market near you.