Roubini 100% In Equities

[thedanimal]

:eek:

Another more timely argument is that the equity market at present is plainly in denial. Stock investors may yet be lucky and muddle through, but the credit crisis is intensifying, banks are cutting off the lifeblood of credit to the markets, and equities have still barely responded. Surely anyone with a grasp of the seriousness of the crisis facing the financial sector would bail out of stocks now?

Again, this is not necessarily so. Just ask Nouriel Roubini of New York University, who has a reputation as the most pessimistic economist in academe. He deserves it. His most recent paper, published last week, is entitled: “Can the Fed and Policy Makers Avoid a Systemic Financial Meltdown? Most Likely Not.”


Nobody is more aware of the gravity of the financial situation, and nobody has done more to point out the risks of a systemic crisis.


So how are Roubini’s own funds invested? They are 100 per cent in equities. In the long run stocks do best and he is not yet close to retirement, so he keeps putting more money into index funds each month.
Fully aware of the gravity of the financial situation, he is also aware of the futility of trying to take action or to time the market. Those tempted to make the investing equivalent of a goalkeeper’s depairing dive should take note.

Full article here

I'm not a big Roubini fan but I almost choked on my coffee when I read that.

[np]

Re: Roubini 100% In Equities

it shouldn't come to a surprise......If you take a look at the link below you will notice on the right hand side that larry summers is an advisor to the board of his firm.....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RGE_Monitor

[metalman]

Re: Roubini 100% In Equities

it shouldn't come to a surprise......If you take a look at the link below you will notice on the right hand side that larry summers is an advisor to the board of his firm.....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RGE_Monitor

roubini is 'their' bear. talks right on cue to get the bailout $$$ flowing. will shut up and turn bullish on cue as well. he gets access to the bullhorn for a reason... he has a role in the system...

[goadam1]

Re: Roubini 100% In Equities

roubini is 'their' bear. talks right on cue to get the bailout $$$ flowing. will shut up and turn bullish on cue as well. he gets access to the bullhorn for a reason... he has a role in the system...

I have little doubt that he is a stooge.

[D-Mack]

Re: Roubini 100% In Equities

I thought he was too optimistic, but not stupid.

What does he know ?

[*T*]

Re: Roubini 100% In Equities

I have little doubt that he is a stooge.

I don't think he's a stooge. I just don't think he's that bothered by money.

I wasn't until I decided to get married (& suddenly had a use for it).

[halcyon]

Re: Roubini 100% In Equities

"roubini is 'their' bear."

"I have little doubt that he is a stooge."

Is this really the level of intellectual discourse at iTulip?

Oh my, I'm apalled.

Next thing we are talking about Illuminati, NWO, pasting InfoWars videos and clinging to our NRA membership cards while backing towards our 20 feet high stash pile of canned spam, right?

Based on iTulip paid content I came in expecting a bit higher level of understanding and discourse than that.

Somebody please give us even one non-circumstancial shred of evidence pointing to the fact that Roubini is a stooge, dishonest, or talking somebody elses book. And please no more 'guilty by association' fallacies. We should be past those since high school.

[metalman]

Re: Roubini 100% In Equities

Is this really the level of intellectual discourse at iTulip?

Oh my, I'm apalled.

Next thing we are talking about Illuminati, NWO, pasting InfoWars videos and clinging to our NRA membership cards while backing towards our 20 feet high stash pile of canned spam, right?

Based on iTulip paid content I came in expecting a bit higher level of understanding and discourse than that.

Somebody please give us even one non-circumstancial shred of evidence pointing to the fact that Roubini is a stooge, dishonest, or talking somebody elses book. And please no more 'guilty by association' fallacies. We should be past those since high school.

Stooge is overstating it. Cramer is a stooge. Ben Stein is a stooge. Robert Kiyosaki is an idiot.

If Larry Summers was on iTulip's advisory board that does not prove iTulip is corrupt but it's indicative. What an odd choice. What do you make of it?

[Andreuccio]

Re: Roubini 100% In Equities

Next thing we are talking about Illuminati, NWO, pasting InfoWars videos and clinging to our NRA membership cards while backing towards our 20 feet high stash pile of canned spam, right?

I can only dream of 20 foot high piles of spam. Alas, my garage tops out at about 16 feet. Is it possible the Illuminati control the building codes, too?

[jimmygu3]

Re: Roubini 100% In Equities

I thought he was too optimistic, but not stupid.

What does he know ?

Roubini may be expecting stocks to rise with inflation. The Argentina Merval stock index increased 1000% from 11/01 to 11/07. Of course the currency it's denominated in lost 70% of its value, but the Merval still more than tripled in dollar terms. The Dow gained a mere 50% over the same period.



Maybe he's expecting similar price action as the US enters a highly inflationary environment. Gold is a good inflation hedge, but as we have discussed on these boards many times, there are a lot of ways for the government to tax or confiscate gains. LT capital gains on stocks are the lowest tax rate out there. Tax-deferred retirement accounts offer more advantages.

I think it's likely we will drop below 6000, and perhaps below 5000 for a brief period. For that reason, I am maintaining my short positions. If I'm wrong, I'll really kick myself for not buying in the low 6000s. Roubini isn't taking that chance.

Jimmy

[goadam1]

Re: Roubini 100% In Equities

Is this really the level of intellectual discourse at iTulip?

Oh my, I'm apalled.

Next thing we are talking about Illuminati, NWO, pasting InfoWars videos and clinging to our NRA membership cards while backing towards our 20 feet high stash pile of canned spam, right?

Based on iTulip paid content I came in expecting a bit higher level of understanding and discourse than that.

Somebody please give us even one non-circumstancial shred of evidence pointing to the fact that Roubini is a stooge, dishonest, or talking somebody elses book. And please no more 'guilty by association' fallacies. We should be past those since high school.

Okay, not a stooge. I agree with Metalman. He has a seat at the table. I don't charge conspiracy. It's just the normal order that comes from who drinks coffee with who.

[c1ue]

Re: Roubini 100% In Equities

Roubini's past is mentioned in www.deepcapture.com such as his college advisor being Jeffrey Sachs: point man for the FIRE interests

If that isn't enough, Roubini's own words might help:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/20...excellent.html

NEWSWEEK: What are your thoughts on the team Obama assembled?

Nouriel Roubini: The choices are excellent. Tim Geithner is going to be a pragmatic, thoughtful and great leader for the Treasury. He has experience at the Treasury and the IMF [International Monetary Fund], then the New York Fed. I have great respect for both Geithner as well as Larry Summers. I think both of them in top roles in economics in the administration were good moves. I think very highly of them both.

Roubini adds on his blog:

First, I told the Newsweek reporter – as full disclosure – that I had worked for Tim Geithner and Larry Summers when they were both at Treasury: I was head of a Treasury Office and the Senior Advisor to Tim Geithner in 1999-2000 who was at that time the Under Secretary for International Affairs while Larry Summers was Treasury Secretary. So some may [believe] that my positive views of the two may be biased/tinted by my working for them; on the other hand I know first hand about them and I have the greatest respect for their skills, intelligence, expertise, commitment to sound public policy and policy wisdom even if I may not always agree with all of their views.

[halcyon]

Re: Roubini 100% In Equities

I don't personally make anything out of somebody's retirement portfolio.

I'm assuming his retirement age is still well 12+ years forward (fair assumption as he's 49 and in hot demand).

I'm also assuming he's bought most of his portfolio outside the bubble top areas (he's buying steadily into his portfolio by his own admission).

That means that he probably gives a high probability that the stock's going to be worth more than it is today (or was during 2007 when he started banging the drum really loud) in real terms when he retires.

Does that mean he couldn't have done better in hindsight by having subscribed to iTulip, actively managing his portfolio and going to gold in 2005?

Of course not.

It just implies that he's playing by the normal academic random-walk playbook. Invest early, sit on it, and retire fairly well.

He's got a real life too, the last time I checked he was quite busy managing that. Not sure that his puny professor salary makes a huge retirement portfolio to fret over either.

To me it all looks like a choice by a sane man who's not all too concerned about his own portfolio (perhaps due to several reasons).

[goadam1]

Re: Roubini 100% In Equities

I don't personally make anything out of somebody's retirement portfolio.

I'm assuming his retirement age is still well 12+ years forward (fair assumption as he's 49 and in hot demand).

I'm also assuming he's bought most of his portfolio outside the bubble top areas (he's buying steadily into his portfolio by his own admission).

That means that he probably gives a high probability that the stock's going to be worth more than it is today (or was during 2007 when he started banging the drum really loud) in real terms when he retires.

Does that mean he couldn't have done better in hindsight by having subscribed to iTulip, actively managing his portfolio and going to gold in 2005?

Of course not.

It just implies that he's playing by the normal academic random-walk playbook. Invest early, sit on it, and retire fairly well.

He's got a real life too, the last time I checked he was quite busy managing that. Not sure that his puny professor salary makes a huge retirement portfolio to fret over either.

To me it all looks like a choice by a sane man who's not all too concerned about his own portfolio (perhaps due to several reasons).

I guess timing is everything. As a gen xer I've had money to invest for 13 years. Everything with stocks has been crap and people here know why.

So much for random walking.

[reallife]

Re: Roubini 100% In Equities

One more stooge you forgot to mention: Larry Kudlow. :rolleyes: