Has the Stock Market bottomed

[c1ue]

Re: Has the Stock Market bottomed

Snake,

P/E ratios are worthless.

The accounting games played in order to monkey with this number are ridiculous - to the point where useful data is nonexistent.

Cash flow is a little better, but doesn't take into account future radical changes due to debt structures.

Ultimately you just have to go do your homework.

[touchring]

Re: Has the Stock Market bottomed

Snake,

P/E ratios are worthless.

The accounting games played in order to monkey with this number are ridiculous - to the point where useful data is nonexistent.

Cash flow is a little better, but doesn't take into account future radical changes due to debt structures.

Ultimately you just have to go do your homework.

Agree, and how about commercial debt? That one can write off 90%

[snakela]

Re: Has the Stock Market bottomed

Snake,

P/E ratios are worthless.

The accounting games played in order to monkey with this number are ridiculous - to the point where useful data is nonexistent.

Cash flow is a little better, but doesn't take into account future radical changes due to debt structures.

Ultimately you just have to go do your homework.

I'm not talking about the P/E of single firms, but of an index. All index firms will have to be playing the same game to make a long-term shift in the index P/E, otherwise all the shenanigans should net out.


Incidentally, I found a link to that chart I was talking about

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009...ome-burns.html

[we_are_toast]

Re: Has the Stock Market bottomed

From what I'm seeing on the MSM and CNBC, we are at the beginning of a MAJOR bull market!

[snakela]

Re: Has the Stock Market bottomed

The banks got everything they wanted right? The FIRE economy had its mistakes cleared and is free to keep operating as usual.

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009...dow-banks.html

Maybe it is a bull market - the can got kicked down the road one more time.

[nero3]

Re: Has the Stock Market bottomed

For it to start a new bull, or let us say that we are in a new bull. Then the only option is the kind of bull we had from 2003, a liquidity driven "bubble in a lot of things", kind of bull, where the "carry trade"/ free money currencies weaken and drive the whole thing pumps up through the shadow banking system.


If no liquidity bubble/ tide, or shadow banking were to restart, then it would go a whole lot lower, perhaps 4000. There is some movement's in these carry trade currencies that suggest, that it takes very little to get the whole thing really going.

[snakela]

Re: Has the Stock Market bottomed

I don't disagree with that. Especially since there seems to be no incentive for it not to occur - the tax payer will foot the bill if something goes amiss.

[johnnybill45]

Re: Has the Stock Market bottomed

Look at the market from '65 - '75. It "bottomed" three times, but was essentially flat for 10 years.

Gamblers win sometimes, but overall, most lose more than they win. Right now is only a speculator's game.

The market has not bottomed. The fundamentals are far from stable. CNBC pundits talk about the market improving before the economy - based on trend analysis. Well, based on trend analysis, the DOW could very well reach 5000 before it truly bottoms. Another "black swan" is just around the corner.

No society in the world can function without oil, food and water - so if you invest in these commodities, you probably won't lose money in the long run.