Time to short Long Bonds?

[hayekvindicated]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...Frg&refer=home

When the US President seeks to "assure investors" that US Bonds are "safe", you know something is rotten in Denmark. ;)

And right on cue:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...Mw&refer=bonds

[c1ue]

Re: Time to short Long Bonds?

This was talked about late last year.

In my view as well as iTulip's - it is too early to short Treasuries.

It is still not clear if/when/how much the Fed/government will intervene.

As for the yield - many including Kasriel predicted 3% long Treasury yields for the middle of 2009.

Thus a short term high is only with respect to the panic last December.

A government intervention could easily push the Treasuries back to the former low - or lower - at which point you're looking at significant paper losses.