Canada's "Gross Domestic Income" tumbles

[Spartacus]

I didn't post in the other thread asking about NZ, Aus and Canada because while all the numbers seem was "good" (mostly in comparison, not in absolute terms) I had a sneaking suspicion that things were much worse than that.

Watchdog sullies PM's economic picture
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servl...Story/Business

Canada's Economy Worse Than Thought, Warns Budget Officer
http://www.citynews.ca/news/news_32807.aspx

the above and more ...

http://news.google.ca/news?hl=en&q=c...num=5&ct=title

[Starving Steve]

Re: Canada's "Gross Domestic Income" tumbles

Zero percent interest rates set by the Bank of Canada and a beaver buck that is being devalued-to-death and on top of all this, deficits being introduced by provincial governments, and a carbon tax is coming too! And Greenpeace sets the agenda across the country, so how could the economy not go to hell?

To begin to dig-out, dump Carney from the Bank of Canada. Dump Gordon Campbell in BC. Dump all of the deficit-makers. Dump all of those in government supported by Greenpeace and their pot-heads.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Canada's "Gross Domestic Income" tumbles

I didn't post in the other thread asking about NZ, Aus and Canada because while all the numbers seem was "good" (mostly in comparison, not in absolute terms) I had a sneaking suspicion that things were much worse than that.

Watchdog sullies PM's economic picture
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servl...Story/Business

Canada's Economy Worse Than Thought, Warns Budget Officer
http://www.citynews.ca/news/news_32807.aspx

the above and more ...

http://news.google.ca/news?hl=en&q=c...num=5&ct=title

Canada has become complacent with its finances and over-optimistic with its expectations.

Since Martin departed as a finance minister (not that I liked him), we have adopted a new mantra:

"Good times never end!

Vancouver being purchased by
Immigration from sea the shining sea...
who needs to pay for retirement?
Potash and RIM stocks for all
etc."

Time to come back to reality i.e. if the US goes down so are we, well at least Ontario, Quebec, the Maritimes and BC (where 80% -give or take -of Canadian live); that leaves Alberta and the prairies. Great.

PS: For the benefit of all, I am planning a road trip around Toronto with my Nikkon; results to follow.

[mr_fibuli]

Re: Canada's "Gross Domestic Income" tumbles

Since Martin departed as a finance minister (not that I liked him), we have adopted a new mantra:

"Good times never end!
:pAlberta's oil will make us rich!
Vancouver being purchased by :pHK's gazillionaires will make us even richer!
Immigration from sea the shining sea...
who needs to pay for retirement?
Potash and RIM stocks for all
etc."

Time to come back to reality i.e. if the US goes down so are we, well at least Ontario, Quebec, the Maritimes and BC (where 80% -give or take -of Canadian live); that leaves Alberta and the prairies. Great.

PS: For the benefit of all, I am planning a road trip around Toronto with my Nikkon; results to follow.

Agreed except about the west - it will go into reverse just as quickly as the rest of us.
the IMF is downgrading expectations as well (not sure why they put the story in the sports url - maybe economics is the new blood sport)
http://sports.theglobeandmail.com/se...ortsOther/home

It's interesting to see economic "inertia" at work- Iceland is tiny so it crashed immediately, the US is massive so it took a year to realise there was a problem (at least by the mainstream media and gov.). It took Canada about 2 months to go into recession when the big shockwaves hit last fall and we're accelerating. Maybe it's time for a Newtonian economic theory?

[LargoWinch]

Re: Canada's "Gross Domestic Income" tumbles

I am saying the West will do better in the event of an high-inflation environment.

I am unsure about the IMF's inflation expectations as a result of money printing, but I would not be surprise if it is less than 3-5% / year for the foreseable future; hence, I have a hard time trusting them.

[GRG55]

Re: Canada's "Gross Domestic Income" tumbles

Zero percent interest rates set by the Bank of Canada and a beaver buck that is being devalued-to-death and on top of all this, deficits being introduced by provincial governments, and a carbon tax is coming too! And Greenpeace sets the agenda across the country, so how could the economy not go to hell?

To begin to dig-out, dump Carney from the Bank of Canada. Dump Gordon Campbell in BC. Dump all of the deficit-makers. Dump all of those in government supported by Greenpeace and their pot-heads.

Where's Ralph Klein when you really need him, eh?

[Guest]

Re: Canada's "Gross Domestic Income" tumbles

Gee is this a Canadian Club I've wandered into? 100% Canadian posters here. Hubba hubba. Bemoaning their ridiculously commodity rich fate, as all self respecting Canadians must do as a matter of national sport. Moan moan. Winge. Clink clink.

[GRG55]

Re: Canada's "Gross Domestic Income" tumbles

Agreed except about the west - it will go into reverse just as quickly as the rest of us.
the IMF is downgrading expectations as well (not sure why they put the story in the sports url - maybe economics is the new blood sport)
http://sports.theglobeandmail.com/se...ortsOther/home

It's interesting to see economic "inertia" at work- Iceland is tiny so it crashed immediately, the US is massive so it took a year to realise there was a problem (at least by the mainstream media and gov.). It took Canada about 2 months to go into recession when the big shockwaves hit last fall and we're accelerating. Maybe it's time for a Newtonian economic theory?

The west is already in reverse.

But it mayl come through this perhaps better, and faster, than Central Canada. The source of this mess is the financial system so it'll take Toronto longer to recover than elsewhere [the alleged superior strength of the Canadian banks notwithstanding].

The west went through a 25 year decline of magnificent proportions, starting when the last resource boom ended when Volcker killed inflation. A lot of people have not forgotten what that was like, including losing homes and jobs, so personal finances for a great number of familes are in pretty good shape. If anything this is going to hit younger families in their 20's harder than the rest, if they ran up their credit cards.

This commodities "bubble" [as some call it] wasn't anywhere near long enough in duration to imbed the excesses that a real bubble does. Sure there's some condo craters in Calgary and Vancouver, but very little of the region participated. Whole resource sectors, like the forest industry, were completely bypassed by this "bubble"...places like Prince George and the north coast of BC have been bust for so long the people there will probably wonder why all the fuss about "global depression". The prairie farm belt only got a brief shot of higher grain prices for, at most, two growing seasons Prior to that grain price netbacks to farmers were lower than they were in 1971. I don't know any farmers that went out and blew the budget on a new John Deere based on that.

There's a reason the bunker is being built out west, instead of somewhere else in the country. The west isn't immune, but it'll come out of this just fine.

[GRG55]

Re: Canada's "Gross Domestic Income" tumbles

Gee is this a Canadian Club I've wandered into? 100% Canadian posters here. Hubba hubba. Bemoaning their ridiculously commodity rich fate, as all self respecting Canadians must do as a matter of national sport. Moan moan. Winge. Clink clink.

Buy some of our tarry sands and we'll throw in a free Second Half Recovery...;)

[mr_fibuli]

Re: Canada's "Gross Domestic Income" tumbles

The west is already in reverse.

But it mayl come through this perhaps better, and faster, than Central Canada. The source of this mess is the financial system so it'll take Toronto longer to recover than elsewhere [the alleged superior strength of the Canadian banks notwithstanding].

The west went through a 25 year decline of magnificent proportions, starting when the last resource boom ended when Volcker killed inflation. A lot of people have not forgotten what that was like, including losing homes and jobs, so personal finances for a great number of familes are in pretty good shape. If anything this is going to hit younger families in their 20's harder than the rest, if they ran up their credit cards.

This commodities "bubble" [as some call it] wasn't anywhere near long enough in duration to imbed the excesses that a real bubble does. Sure there's some condo craters in Calgary and Vancouver, but very little of the region participated. Whole resource sectors, like the forest industry, were completely bypassed by this "bubble"...places like Prince George and the north coast of BC have been bust for so long the people there will probably wonder why all the fuss about "global depression". The prairie farm belt only got a brief shot of higher grain prices for, at most, two growing seasons Prior to that grain price netbacks to farmers were lower than they were in 1971. I don't know any farmers that went out and blew the budget on a new John Deere based on that.

There's a reason the bunker is being built out west, instead of somewhere else in the country. The west isn't immune, but it'll come out of this just fine.

I guess that makes sense as does LargoWinch's re inflation. The oil will still be in the ground and the fields there to re-plant. What is concerning in Ontario and other industrial centres is the loss of the infrastructure for manufacturing - once the factories are closed and the machines and people dispersed it takes a lot of effort and time to re-establish and unless something fundamental changes, there is not much incentive to invest in manufacturing.

[GRG55]

Re: Canada's "Gross Domestic Income" tumbles

I guess that makes sense as does LargoWinch's re inflation. The oil will still be in the ground and the fields there to re-plant. What is concerning in Ontario and other industrial centres is the loss of the infrastructure for manufacturing - once the factories are closed and the machines and people dispersed it takes a lot of effort and time to re-establish and unless something fundamental changes, there is not much incentive to invest in manufacturing.

I also wouldn't underestimate the negative effects of the death of the FIRE economy on Ontario. Toronto will certainly remain the financial capital of the nation, but finance [FIRE] isn't going to be nearly as large a portion of the overall national or provincial economy as it has been for the past two or three decades.

The financial sub-sector as a percent of total TSX capitalization is going to keep declining for some years to come, and will be a good measure of the above trend. It was a great run while it lasted...

[LargoWinch]

Re: Canada's "Gross Domestic Income" tumbles

Gee is this a Canadian Club I've wandered into? 100% Canadian posters here. Hubba hubba. Bemoaning their ridiculously commodity rich fate, as all self respecting Canadians must do as a matter of national sport. Moan moan. Winge. Clink clink.

Luke, we are planning a new site: iMaple.ca to compete with iTulip.com

And you thought crude oil was an important commodity? Think again. We are desperate to discuss Maple Syrup futures:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/11/di...tml?ref=dining

[mr_fibuli]

Re: Canada's "Gross Domestic Income" tumbles

I also wouldn't underestimate the negative effects of the death of the FIRE economy on Ontario. Toronto will certainly remain the financial capital of the nation, but finance [FIRE] isn't going to be nearly as large a portion of the overall national or provincial economy as it has been for the past two or three decades.

The financial sub-sector as a percent of total TSX capitalization is going to keep declining for some years to come, and will be a good measure of the above trend. It was a great run while it lasted...

That will be a good thing - The finance industry is like the e-coli in your digestive tract that help the body (real economy) to digest food. Get the wrong type and they will take over the rest of the body and kill it and then die themselves.

How did it come to this that the bacteria were calling the shots? Time for a good course of antibiotics - hopefully they're not resistant!