Gold........A Busted Flush!

[Mega]

Told You.....They were hypering it!

"Game over man, GAME over!"

Mike

[rabot10]

Re: Gold........A Busted Flush!

Told You.....They were hypering it!

"Game over man, GAME over!"

Mike

Mike the game hasn't started - We are just starting the first inning jmho. The market is up, so what! Nothing has changed.

[*T*]

Re: Gold........A Busted Flush!

Mike the game hasn't started - We are just starting the first inning jmho. The market is up, so what! Nothing has changed.

[Starving Steve]

Re: Gold........A Busted Flush!

Gold becomes playable around $800 for maybe $100 per oz. profit on another sucker move to $900+. Bear markets in gold always give you plenty of sucker moves that are quite playable and fun.... But gold becomes darn interesting around the $717 target. That is where I suspect gold is going in the long run.

So long as Bernanke keeps circulating money TIGHT and the under-tow worldwide remains deflationary, the bear market in gold should continue for a while longer yet. The charts in gold are BEARISH with a clear double-top now.

[metalman]

Re: Gold........A Busted Flush!

Gold becomes playable around $800 for maybe $100 per oz. profit on another sucker move to $900+. Bear markets in gold always give you plenty of sucker moves that are quite playable and fun.... But gold becomes darn interesting around the $717 target. That is where I suspect gold is going in the long run.

So long as Bernanke keeps circulating money TIGHT and the under-tow worldwide remains deflationary, the bear market in gold should continue for a while longer yet. The charts in gold are BEARISH with a clear double-top now.

zzzzzzzzzzzzz.......

What Gold Bubble?

by Eric Janszen

October 13, 2006

I figure Friday the 13th is as good a day as any to take on everyone who insists on calling the price action in gold earlier this year a "bubble." Many commentators on gold believe that when gold hit $720 on May 11, 2006, gold was close to hitting its previous bubble peak of $850 on January 21, 1980. A new gold bubble had come and gone. For anyone who believes that, this Friday the 13th is not your lucky day.

First, let's compare the 1980 gold bubble to the 2000 NASDAQ bubble.

Long time readers of iTulip know an asset bubble when they see one. They are primarily belief systems that have the following five main ingredients:

1. Extremes of popular, positive investor sentiment–the general belief that the price can only go up, such as gold in 1980, tech stocks in 1999, and housing in 2005.
2. Valid Core Beliefs that are based on fact, such as the value of the Internet during the Internet bubble, that drive early adopters into the market.
3. Invalid Apocryphal Beliefs that are later invented by those who are benefiting the most from the bubble, such as investment banks and venture capital firms during the Internet bubble, but readily accepted by everyone else who is also benefiting–to explain extreme price increases that go far beyond the level justified by the Core Beliefs.
4. A well developed system of sales, marketing and distribution, that includes the mainstream press, and employs an army of analysts, consultants, lawyers, accountants, and so on, all of whom adopt first the Core Beliefs and later buy into the Apocryphal Beliefs.
5. A duration that exceeds the warnings of early bubble spotters by months or even years.

Gold in 1980, the NASDAQ in 1999, and housing in 2005 all fit the criteria for a bubble, and the results as shown in the chart above show a characteristic rapid price rise and decline that occurs during bubbles. Gold currently does not fit the criteria for a bubble.

[jtabeb]

Re: Gold........A Busted Flush!

zzzzzzzzzzzzz.......

I'm with MEGA, I'm selling ALL MY GOLD AND SILVER AND BUYING STOCKS!!!;) (sarcasm intended)

[jpatter666]

Re: Gold........A Busted Flush!

Yeah, yeah. Gold is up, gold is down.

But short-term thoughts on where it is going? I think long-term we are all on the same page, short-term we want the best entry price.

[Fiat Currency]

Re: Gold........A Busted Flush!

But short-term thoughts on where it is going? I think long-term we are all on the same page, short-term we want the best entry price.

Why bother? Just figure out how many physical ounces you want to buy this year, divide it by 12 ... and buy that many ounces every month. That's what I started doing over 12 years ago and it works out just fine. If you wait to "hit the low" you'll always be second guessing what you know is right - which is buy some physical gold !!

Gold Pot.gif

[jtabeb]

Re: Gold........A Busted Flush!

Yeah, yeah. Gold is up, gold is down.

But short-term thoughts on where it is going? I think long-term we are all on the same page, short-term we want the best entry price.

Short term, if the price is attractive, buy more, if you don't think it is attrative, wait, but risk not being able to buy in (some day, have no Idea when). Seems like an easy risk-reward decision to me, but I also take my own advice, so your milage may vary.

IF you are really looking for an entry, just scale in instead of buying all you can at the same time. Buy in 15%-25% increments of your available cash over the period of a couple months. If you see the price go down more, and you think the price is even more attractive, buy a bigger amount. If the price is going up, scale back you purchasing.
(Dollar cost average, if you are worried about the price, don't buy a big lump).

I personally like getting a big chuck at a time, that way, I don't have to worry about being locked out, but that is a BIG perosnal choice that may not be right for somebody else.

[gwynedd1]

Re: Gold........A Busted Flush!

Told You.....They were hypering it!

"Game over man, GAME over!"

Mike

Hi Mega,

I don't see gold going through the roof on news like this. Pay cuts are everywhere.


Toyota employees agree 10% pay cut
http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/090311/214/iiamz.html



I think the idea that they will save the FIRE economy through massive inflation may be wrong as long as they can keep making circular book money entries to keep them technically solvent aka post inflationary bailouts . They have closed down the escape routes to gold or assets by doing this.

A depression just isn't going to make gold go up.

Now on the other hand inflation will at first be seen as good news. Once stocks start going up the optimists will liquidate their gold positions. So I see no economic driver for gold in the short term(asset deflation) or near to midterm recovery.

What could move gold is politics and I can't quite predict that. There is enough uncertainty in politics to never see gold go below $500 USD but that just provides a higher floor.

So I see politics keeping a floor on it and as a hedge for those reasons but I see no economic drive for it to go up. IMHO

[hayekvindicated]

Re: Gold........A Busted Flush!

I'm with MEGA, I'm selling ALL MY GOLD AND SILVER AND BUYING STOCKS!!!;) (sarcasm intended)

Its time to buy Citi (s****y) shares and dump the gold.