Antarctic Peninsula is warming quickly

[don]

Re: Antarctic Peninsula is warming quickly

From the Ministry of Propaganda and Thought Control.....

April 22, 2009

Our Planet, Pole to Pole, Cold to Hot
JEANNETTE CATSOULIS

Published: April 22, 2009

Leave it to Disney to make global warming as soothing as a full-body massage. In the grandiosely titled “Earth,” plundered largely from the BBC Natural History Unit’s magnificent “Planet Earth,” the filmmakers Alastair Fothergill and Mark Linfield take the temperature of our planet and conclude that it is rising. Blame James Earl Jones’s insistently cozy narration if the film makes that elevation seem as natural a phenomenon as the turning of the tides.

But this is nature defanged and declawed for kiddie consumption, so the emphasis is on awwww-filled moments — mandarin ducklings flapping adorably from nest to forest floor, polar bear cubs slithering on ungainly paws — captured in spectacularly high definition. Even when the fangs are visible (a great white shark gobbling a sea lion in balletic slow motion) the blood is not, thanks to tasteful and customer-sensitive editing. There are no creepy-crawlies on this earth.

Following the tilt of the planet from pole to pole, “Earth” records the expanding deserts and shrinking rainfalls with well-meaning diligence but without explanation. The plight of the thirsty African elephants (every dehydrated fold lovingly captured) and starving humpbacked whales seems as removed from human action as a solar eclipse.

As a result, you may leave the theater feeling as fuzzy — and ultimately as powerless — as those doomed polar bears.

EARTH
Opens on Wednesday nationwide.

Tell me there's a Green Barbie...I'm out of the loop :mad:

[Chris Coles]

Re: Antarctic Peninsula is warming quickly

In the grandiosely titled “Earth,” plundered largely from the BBC Natural History Unit’s magnificent “Planet Earth,”

For those of you outside of the UK, I can recommend this BBC series above any other. I confess that I did not watch it the first time around as the presenter, Alan Titchmarsh is a gardener. But by chance, I turned on to find myself watching an episode spellbound and have been a fan ever since.

British Isles - A natural History.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/prog.../britishisles/

[santafe2]

Re: Antarctic Peninsula is warming quickly

To further the debate this has just turned up on New Scientist about the increase of ice on Antarctica with a direct reference at the bottom.

Why Antarctic ice is growing despite global warming

• 17:50 20 April 2009 by Catherine Brahic
• For similar stories, visit the Climate Change Topic Guide

http://www.newscientist.com/article/...l-warming.html

Thanks Chris. So does this article bring some clarity to what's going on in Antarctica or does it add another layer of complexity? Maybe both? Is this information published? Peer reviewed?

I'm suspicious I suppose,it's such an easy explanation and the issue is so prone to politics. I've learned over the last month or so to suspect everything that appears too glib, too perfect with regard to the climate change question.

Have you noticed that the same dozen or so people are constantly quoted on both the AGW team and the global warming is for idiots team? I don't know this reporter but I was disappointed to find this from one of her previous articles...

The west Antarctic ice sheet more likely to collapse, causing global sea levels to rise,...:confused:

That's a disappointing statement to have found. It makes you ask what else is wrong with other articles that I've not been able to catch.

Article here:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/...te-change.html

I'm not sure how much farther we can take this thread but it's been great to hear so many ideas with regard to a place most of us know almost nothing about. And, we did it without getting religated to Rant and Rave. Of that, we should be proud. Civil enough to stay in the news section while discussing a divisive issue.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Antarctic Peninsula is warming quickly

Thanks Chris. So does this article bring some clarity to what's going on in Antarctica or does it add another layer of complexity? Maybe both? Is this information published? Peer reviewed?

Santafe2, I did make an oblique comment that there is a reference at the bottom. It was this which is at the bottom of the New Scientist article:

Journal reference: Geophysical Research Letters (DOI: 10.1029/2009GL037524, in press)

http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/

Turner, J., J. C. Comiso, G. J. Marshall, T. A. Lachlan‐Cope, T. Bracegirdle, T. Maksym, M. P. Meredith, Z. Wang, and A. Orr (2009),
Non‐annular atmospheric circulation change induced by stratospheric ozone depletion and its role in the recent increase of Antarctic sea ice extent,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08502, doi:10.1029/2009GL037524


23 April 2009 [Abstract] [Full Article] [Print Version]

[petertribo]

Re: Antarctic Peninsula is warming quickly

Oh my, more island stuff----must be Media Island Month. As seen on OPRAH, a mysterious Garbage Island has appeared in the Pacific:

To give you a little background: Years of bottles, bags, toys, packaging and plastic trash from all corners of the Earth are swirling in a plastic whirlpool in the North Pacific. Discarded water bottles from Iowa, takeout containers from New York City, flip-flops from California and plastic debris from the world over make their way from land into storm drains, streams, rivers and other waterways. They are carried out sea, where they get trapped in swirling ocean currents - forming a giant, floating trash dump of an enormous proportion - no matter how you quantify it.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/0..._n_190552.html

Destructionists, however, claim that this "island" is not an island at all but a mirage and hallucination perpetrated by environmentalists. They further claim that, even if there is real garbage, it is garbage which was fabricated at a Garbage Simulating Factory in Guangzhou with cheap Chinese labor and then transported to the fake island site. Reportedly, the mysterious and ever shrewd Professor Wing of WARN may be involved. (As I did not see any Mars Bars wrappers or Big Mac boxes (must have items in any garbage collection) in this video, I think there is a possibility this garbage is counterfeit. And furthermore, how do takeout containers from New York City, which is on the ATLANTIC end up in the PACIFIC? Huh?)

Personally, I do not own a TV and, in my estimation, anything coming from it is automatically Garbage.

[santafe2]

Re: Antarctic Peninsula is warming quickly

Oh my, more island stuff----must be Media Island Month. As seen on OPRAH, a mysterious Garbage Island has appeared in the Pacific:

Seriously, next your going to tell us you believe we landed on the moon...;)

[santafe2]

Re: Antarctic Peninsula is warming quickly

Although not as clearly articulated in the article as one would like, here are the interesting add-ins to our discussion:

• Increases in sea ice surface area, (I assume in Eastern Antarctica as others have posted), is not significant. My notes: The decreases in sea ice are well documented in the Western Peninsula but others have pointed out that there is an increase in sea ice in the Eastern portion of the continent that more than off-sets this decrease. This issue has been used as a political football here and in the MSM but Dr. Worby contends this is a non starter since they are talking about an increase in surface area while the decrease in volume continues.
• The hole in the ozone layer is causing more storms and fierce winds around the South Pole. My notes: This helps explain how sea ice is breaking up while the overall continental temperature may be cooling in Antarctica - heavy weather activity tends to support cooling. The most accessible portion of Antarctica is the Western Peninsula and by all accounts, it's warming but overall many reports say the continent is cooling. Sea ice is not only broken up by warming, it's broken by high seas. That explanation is on the SCAR site. The ozone hole is sometimes sited as another environmentalist boondoggle but it's real and while it heals it may be causing weather anomalies in Antarctica that skew temperature statistics.
• It's not about global warming or temperature, it's about wind. My notes: Dr. Worby points out what scientists at SCAR and other institutions have contended; the ozone hole is pulling warmer air down from the north. This mixing of hot and cold air creates wind which is inordinately warming the Western Peninsula and creating many of the other weather anomalies. So Wilkins and the Larson B ice shelf collapse may have been caused by chlorofluorocarbons, an issue we identified and resolved 20 years ago. But, it will take another 50 or so years to repair.
• My notes: Here's another point to consider. The ozone hole heals during, drum roll, summer when the weather is warming. Not to go too GAIA on the thread but it's possible the earth is just healing a serious wound. After all it's had a few billion years to evolve.

A reasonable thesis is that chlorofluorocarbons collected at the South Pole like garbage is currently collecting in the North Pacific ocean. We resolved the inputs to the problem but it will still be decades before the issue is resolved. During that time, we're going to observe strange weather at the South Pole so it may not be the best location to measure global climate change.

Ozone-sea ice link is hot and cold air

April 24, 2009

The increases in Antarctic sea ice linked by British researchers to the hole in the ozone layer are not significant in terms of global temperature, an Australian expert says.
Australian Antarctic Division ice expert Dr Tony Worby says there's been a very significant decrease in sea ice and a net loss in shelf ice in Antarctica.
Sea ice is different from shelf ice on the continent, and its melting does not affect sea levels.
Fresh research from the British Antarctic Survey says Antarctica's sea ice surface area - not volume - is increasing, in parts.
The ozone hole is causing more storms and more fierce winds around the South Pole, and that's cooling down much of Antarctica, spreading the sea ice further on the ocean, it says.
Dr Worby says the British research is more about wind than temperature and global warming.
"They are talking about a 1 per cent per decade increase. That's not a very significant increase in Antarctic sea ice," Dr Worby said.
"It also doesn't tell you about the real variability in sea ice that we are seeing from one area to the next.
"Around the Antarctic peninsula we are seeing a very significant decrease in sea ice linked to more warm northerly winds in the area.
"That's where the Larsen B and the Wilkins ice shelves have collapsed."
Dr Worby said the same wind changes cooling parts of Antarctica, spreading sea ice, are warming these other large areas.
"So the British research is more a story about wind than it is about temperature," Dr Worby said.
Antarctica is losing between 0.2mm and 0.3mm of shelf ice each year, he said.
Sea ice is important for ocean circulation, which moves heat around the globe and affects climate systems, not sea level rises, he said.

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/gl...0423-agii.html

[santafe2]

Re: Antarctic Peninsula is warming quickly

Attached is an excellent picture from last Monday of Wilkins as it's breaking up. It shows where the ice bridge to Charcot Island broke away. Scientists are speculating that a new ice front may form between Latady Island, Dorsey Island and the Petrie Ice Rises.

Wilkins2.jpg

[santafe2]

Re: Antarctic Peninsula is warming quickly

For anyone reading this post without trudging through the entire thread, I should admit I'm an unrepentant subscriber to the theory that there is global warming and it is an AGW issue. That said, as I've investigated this Wilkins issue over the last several weeks it's been easy to understand and refute the global-warming-denier articles but it's taken longer to recognize the global-warming-will-kill-your-children articles. I offer the following as evidence that stupidity and politics exist on all sides.

We start with the conclusion:

Global warming blamed for unstable ice shelf in Antarctica

Anyone who has taken the time to read this thread will know that this is an incorrect conclusion. The peninsula is warming and that is troubling but few scientists have come to a conclusion they will lay their reputation on. Global warming, yes. Global warming as a cause of the huge increase in temperature in the Antarctic Peninsula, no.

Satellite images of Antarctica show a huge ice shelf has become unstable, with icebergs breaking off it, in the latest evidence of climate change.

Classic MSM. Follow an incorrect conclusion with a statement of fact. Add words like "huge" and "evidence" to support your point. The satellite images make it perfect. That is, "huge satellite evidence".

The indications that the ice shelf has become unstable follow the collapse three weeks ago of the ice bridge between the Antarctic mainland and Charcot Island

OK, statement of truth. The damn thing is falling apart.

The images from the European Space Agency (ESA) revealed that an estimated 700 square kilometres of the Wilkins Ice Shelf have been lost, with satellite data last week showing the first icebergs had started to calve off its northern front.

OK, as we said, Wilkins is breaking up.

The indications that the ice shelf has become unstable follow the collapse three weeks ago of the ice bridge between the Antarctic mainland and Charcot Island, with the loss of around 330 square kilometres of ice.

OK, we knew that...

The collapse of the bridge, which had held back the northern front of the shelf, resulted in existing rifts in the shelf's ice widening and new cracks forming, according to scientists.

Sure, more great facts that we know...show me how global warming is causing this?!

It is expected the ice will continue to be lost from the "fragile and vulnerable" shelf over the coming weeks.

That's bad but not unexpected. Could we tie this back to the conclusion?

David Vaughan of the British Antarctic Survey said: "The retreat of Wilkins Ice Shelf is the latest and largest of its kind.

OK, here's a scientist weighing in. I'll bet he's ready to take this argument home.

"Eight separate ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula have shown signs of retreat over the last few decades.

Here it is, he's setting it up...

"There is little doubt that these changes are the result of atmospheric warming on the Antarctic Peninsula, which has been the most rapid in the Southern Hemisphere."

Ah, dude, didn't you read the conclusion in the headline? It's about the world, not the peninsula. Everyone knows the Antarctic Peninsula is warming. Even FOX is all over this, what about the conclusion?

And he said: "The changes to Wilkins Ice Shelf provide a fabulous natural laboratory that will allow us to understand how ice shelves respond to climate change and what the future will hold for the rest of Antarctica."
The floating ice sheet is on the Antarctic Peninsula, which has experienced warming of 2.5C in the past 50 years.

Um, he went all scientific on the reporter. What's with the "fabulous natual laboratory" language?

The loss of the ice will not cause a rise in sea levels, because it is already floating, but with sea ice caught between warming air and sea temperatures it is an important indicator of climate change.

Personally, I would never care to defend the above statement. I'm still trying to understand what she's saying.

The Wilkins Ice Shelf had been stable until the 1990s when it began to retreat, prompting predictions it would collapse within 30 years.
The latest data from the ESA's Envisat satellite and the German Aerospace Centre's TerraSAR-X satellite shows it appears to be vanishing even more quickly than expected.

It's always good to end with facts when you've spent the majority of your article proving you've no idea what you're talking about.

[Starving Steve]

Re: Antarctic Peninsula is warming quickly

Here is April at San Francisco Airport: normal 56.2F and this year mean 56.4F, so a deviation of +0.2F above the thirty year normal.

We agree that there has been some warming on this planet since the Ice Age. The Earth is currently still warming, but ever so slightly--- a fraction of a degree F every century. Sea levels are rising but only about six or seven inches per century.

But anyway, May will be a new month, so the global warming nuts (aka: the eco-frauds) will have another thirty days to make their case. Any airport (or rural area) with a long-term climate record will suffice for study. Instead of threatening businesses with carbon taxes, make your case for man-made global warming.

Rainfall at SFO for April was 0.27 inches with a normal expected of 1.18 inches. Since this was a La Nina year, no surprise in the rainfall department. Happily, May 1st brought 0.2 inches of fresh rain, but that rainfall counts for the May total.

Rainfall since July 1st was 14.82 inches at SFO. The normal precipitation expected to date is 19.62 inches, so again, no surprise in the rainfall department because of the La Nina year.

[santafe2]

Re: Antarctic Peninsula is warming quickly

Below is another excellent article from the NASA web site that expands on the idea that global warming is a complex problem. The geographical focus of the referenced study is the Arctic and it's not CO2 being studied but aerosols. Specifically, sulfates and black carbon. The first, a cooling agent, has been regulated and has been decreasing over the last few decades and the second, a warming agent, has been increasing as industry moves to Asia.

The study concludes that about 45% of Arctic warming may be coming from this aerosol shift in the last 3-4 decades. It's still AGM but from a different source and one that can be controlled more quickly as aerosols dissipate much more quickly than CO2.

The chart below shows how quickly temperatures have risen in the Arctic since clean air regulations were passed in the '70s to minimize airborne sulfates in the Northern Hemisphere.

Arctic.jpg

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/fea...rosols_prt.htm

[Chris Coles]

Re: Antarctic Peninsula is warming quickly

Um, he went all scientific on the reporter. What's with the "fabulous natual laboratory" language?



Personally, I would never care to defend the above statement. I'm still trying to understand what she's saying.

The natural laboratory is under the sea where the old ice restricted access to the sea floor. Beneath the area of the ice shelf is a wealth of new information that can be gleaned from taking core samples of the seabed floor. That will open a new opportunity to discover the climate that predates the ice shelf and when the ice shelf was formed.

The removal of these ice shelves that have been in place for some thousands of years really does open up a new natural laboratory that may provide a fabulous view of what triggers the loss of such ice shelves before man made pollution started.

[Starving Steve]

Re: Antarctic Peninsula is warming quickly

How does NASA get a mean air temperature for the entire Arctic --- when I struggle to get a mean air temperature for my own backyard? Having satellites does not necessarily give one a God's eye-view of the world's climate, or does it?

But anyway, thank you for the info about diesel aeresols and their possible warming effect upon the Earth's climate, especially in the Arctic. This is new information for me because I formerly thought dust made the atmosphere more reflective of solar radiation--- hence cooling the Earth. Yes, the implication is that policy should be directed against aeresols, not so much against CO2 exclusively.

I had thought that soot acted as condensation-nuclei for literally snow or ice, and the snow or ice did the reflecting of sunlight. The soot ( or diesel aeresols ) did the cooling, therefore. But NASA finds otherwise, especially in the Arctic..... This is fishy, but I stand corrected until I have better information.

[santafe2]

Re: Antarctic Peninsula is warming quickly

The natural laboratory is under the sea where the old ice restricted access to the sea floor. Beneath the area of the ice shelf is a wealth of new information that can be gleaned from taking core samples of the seabed floor. That will open a new opportunity to discover the climate that predates the ice shelf and when the ice shelf was formed.

The removal of these ice shelves that have been in place for some thousands of years really does open up a new natural laboratory that may provide a fabulous view of what triggers the loss of such ice shelves before man made pollution started.

Good NOAA article discussing sub-freezing sea ice environments and their possible assistance in understanding astrobiology, (life on Mars and all that).

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/essay_krembsdeming.html

[santafe2]

Re: Antarctic Peninsula is warming quickly

How does NASA get a mean air temperature for the entire Arctic --- when I struggle to get a mean air temperature for my own backyard? Having satellites does not necessarily give one a God's eye-view of the world's climate, or does it?

NASA is 6 months away from launching "Glory". I'm not well suited to discussing anything related to a God that is not science based, so I'll avoid that entanglement.

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/essay_krembsdeming.html

Glory is a LEO, (low earth orbit), satellite designed to help us better understand the effect of aerosols. From your point of view it's important to review this information and contrast it against your anti-AGM stance.

As I pointed out a few posts ago, the "eco-fraud" reporters are shameless with regard to their point of view. But it doesn't mean AGM, (anthropomorphic global warming), is without merit.

As you know, I've no doubt we 6.5B humans are driving climate change but I'm also sure we don't understand this clearly. I appreciate your contrary point of view and letting us know when some evidence helps you reconsider your position.