I expect a 1400 DOW, the 14000 peak was a pre-bubble fluke...

[ASH]

Re: I expect a 1400 DOW, the 14000 peak was a pre-bubble fluke...

Anyone who doesn't think the planet is doomed to total destruction by the end of the next month is totally naive, if you ask me.

But... but... I just bought a lifetime Tivo subscription! How will I get my money's worth now?

[GRG55]

Re: I expect a 1400 DOW, the 14000 peak was a pre-bubble fluke...

Can't we just blame the rise of US MBA schools on this mess?

At DOW companies, it seems like even executive assistants now require an MBA. Group think? LOL.

It used to be that you learned business through experience, not books.

Rather then spending 100K on an MBA, we should encourage peole to spend 100K and start a business.

Turn MBA programs back into old fashioned accounting finance degrees.

Put "economics" back under the social science department where it belongs.

Reminds me of a story I heard back in the '80s.

During the games of the perennially poor MIT football team, the business faculty students took their revenge by taunting the opposing team supporters with a rendition of the Mickey Mouse Club theme song, including the refrain...

M*I*T - M*B*A, M*O*N*E*Y...

The end of an era, I suppose

[cobben]

Re: I expect a 1400 DOW, the 14000 peak was a pre-bubble fluke...

"onward downward until we get some real and truthful Accounting in place"

What about onward upward to the high level plateau of soviet style accounting, where 5 year plans are always fulfilled with margin?

[bpr]

Re: I expect a 1400 DOW, the 14000 peak was a pre-bubble fluke...

A lot of DOW companies are cesspits of corruption with governmental approval by nepotism and favoritism. To view them as productive entities is an accounting illusion.

Randomly take for example Google's 300 USD share price [that is obviously only fit to be 35 USD, its bloated price being a meaningless construct].

Hmmm. Google's now part of the Dow Industrial Average?

Not a huge fan of Google myself, but I'd actually bite at 2.5 times trailing earnings, though I doubt we'll see that.

Quite a provocative post, but no meat here, just eye candy and belly stroking for bears. This belongs in the rumor or rant section.

[occdude]

Re: I expect a 1400 DOW, the 14000 peak was a pre-bubble fluke...

If you think as I think that the Dow will eventually equal one oz. of AU then the Dows fair market REAL value RIGHT NOW should be about 900 . BUT! Factor in the governments meddling keeping the price of gold DOWN and massive intervention keeping the price of equities UP and its hard to figure. BUT if you take the Ebay price of bullion at about 1000 bucks AND no government intervention, you can just imagine the state of the economy not to mention SOCIETY. I think thats why the governnment is intervening because we are talking about a literal death and collapse. Unemployment north of 30-35 percent (unofficial REAL number, official number would be about 20)based on depression era stats where the market tanked 85 percent.

There you have it. OH and did I mention the price of everything today, that is consumer goods would be about the same? Scary stuff, BUT we would soon be headed for a major recovery and IF we got our currency based on sound money (gold/commodity based) AND either pared back bank reserve ratios to SOUTH of 4-1 (preferably 1-1) we could look forward to REAL growth rates of 2-3 percent for a LONG time.

If society could hold itself together take some short term VERY unpleasant medicine, the government could get the H out the way, we could then realize all the cool stuff we see in popular mechanics/science FINALLY come to fore. But how realistic is it to expect that? Well I can dare to dream right?

[billstew]

Re: I expect a 1400 DOW, the 14000 peak was a pre-bubble fluke...

I expect a 1400 DOW, the 14000 peak was a pre-bubble fluke...

I believe other people have done analysis to prove the 1400 level is the correct new finsec crisis level -- but I have not been able to find this research. I would love to post the research, but I do not know where it is.

And I am not being excessively pessimistic with my numbers either.

A lot of DOW companies are cesspits of corruption with governmental approval by nepotism and favoritism. To view them as productive entities is an accounting illusion.

Randomly take for example Google's 300 USD share price [that is obviously only fit to be 35 USD, its bloated price being a meaningless construct]. Microsoft's share price has barely budged away from Intel's -- and both are cesspits of artificial productivity.

To expect 80% bankruptcy of the Fortune 2000 in this finsec crisis is reasonable.

Any economic system [and corporations, like governments are economic systems] fueled by artificial productivity will not last -- only real and meaningful productivity has the ability to keep a corporation alive.

The news is that all US sharmarket indexes will eventually deflate to their real world values.

This text is from a Money and Markets email message, it at least leads some credence about the DOW going to 1400 (mailed on the 4th of March) :

Wall Street pundits howled last July when we said the Dow would plunge to 7200 — a 37% decline.

Now, with the Dow well BELOW 7200, the critics have fallen silent — and some are even mimicking our forecast that Dow 5000 is dead ahead.

Here’s why even that dire medium-term forecast is still just the beginning — why the Dow could ultimately fall to 3500 ... 2500 ... 1500 or even lower ...

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