Monday Blood bath for the Dow?

[goadam1]

Re: Monday Blood bath for the Dow?

We do have a good laugh around here. Now hands up and give me your wallet.

[Judas]

Re: Monday Blood bath for the Dow?

Obama has got 2 general options...

Obama has no options. One man does not control all of human destiny- he can tweak and meddle, maybe even spin off a few "unintended consequences" or delay things a wee bit, but the economy is going to correct as it sees fit no matter how much howling or printing is involved. The terms or numbers might look different, but the end effect will be equilibrium come hell or high water.

Obama is not god.

Seriously.

[Guest]

Re: Monday Blood bath for the Dow?

Louie.G -

First time anyone's sighted a mule (USD, ca. 2009) among the racehorses at the Preakness. Let alone one that's actually trotting. :eek:

Ladies and gentleman the currencies are lined up in the starting gates .... And they're off .... The USD has shot out to a good lead, there is a large group bunched up on the rails but they are falling behind .... Oh No .... JPY seems to have pulled up lame, GBP is carrying a heavy load and is struggling to stay with the bunch. .... Will USD have the stamina to maintain her lead or will the rest just fail to finish??? That seems to be the big question in this race now.

[hayekvindicated]

Re: Monday Blood bath for the Dow?

This bear market busts the greatest myth of all: the supposed superiority of "buy and hold" strategies in stocks.

If you bought the FTSE 100 in 1996, today you'd be exactly where you were then (not counting inflation), same with the DOW.

If you bought the NIKKEI in 1981, you'd be exactly where you were back then (not counting inflation - perhaps not considerable in Japan but there's been some inflation nonetheless).

If you bought the SENSEX (India's premier stock index) in 1997, it was at 5600. Today it stands at 8607. So, in 12 years, your return is a handsome 53 percent. If you take into account M3 growth in the Indian economy (yes the Indian politicians also love printing money), your returns are a JOKE.

I could go on with other indices as well but you get the picture. ;)

Those planning on spending their retirement on mutual fund returns have ensured a happy retirement for their overpaid fund managers and no one else.

[hayekvindicated]

Re: Monday Blood bath for the Dow?

Obama has no options. One man does not control all of human destiny- he can tweak and meddle, maybe even spin off a few "unintended consequences" or delay things a wee bit, but the economy is going to correct as it sees fit no matter how much howling or printing is involved. The terms or numbers might look different, but the end effect will be equilibrium come hell or high water.

Obama is not god.

Seriously.

That hits the nail on the head.

Obama is a man of the establishment pretending to be the "change you can believe in". In reality, Obama will be Bush on steroids and then some. Why? Because Bush never really represented traditional Republican principles anyway (and before I get hate mail for lauding "traditional Republican principles", I'd say there are some admirable things in them too - such as the desire for limited government. We could all do with less government, thank you).

Ron Paul represents traditional Republican principles. That is why he is unelectable. Contemporary people have no patience for government restraint. The government must meddle constantly and meddle endlessly - and the worse it gets, the more it must meddle until we are all ruined permanently.

One of my friends who studies political philosophy says that the Government (in India we call it "Mai Baap Sarkaar" - translates into "you the government are my master and my father" ;)) has replaced God in the mind of modern man. There is some truth to that. In the past, people turned to God to alleviate their worst misfortunes. Today they turn to the Gubmint. Neither is particularly rational. Both are fanatical.

[don]

Re: Monday Blood bath for the Dow?

Too frog in a pot.

Must be a Rapper

[Louie.G]

Re: Monday Blood bath for the Dow?

Louie.G -

First time anyone's sighted a mule (USD, ca. 2009) among the racehorses at the Preakness. Let alone one that's actually trotting. :eek:

ha ha, yes indeed.

However if you jab a mule in the butt hard and quick enough they will sometimes kick into gear lol. They never seem to run for long and if you keep pounding them they can tend to just sit down and sulk. Very temperamental wee beasties

[LargoWinch]

Re: Monday Blood bath for the Dow?

This bear market busts the greatest myth of all: the supposed superiority of "buy and hold" strategies in stocks.

If you bought the FTSE 100 in 1996, today you'd be exactly where you were then (not counting inflation), same with the DOW.

If you bought the NIKKEI in 1981, you'd be exactly where you were back then (not counting inflation - perhaps not considerable in Japan but there's been some inflation nonetheless).

If you bought the SENSEX (India's premier stock index) in 1997, it was at 5600. Today it stands at 8607. So, in 12 years, your return is a handsome 53 percent. If you take into account M3 growth in the Indian economy (yes the Indian politicians also love printing money), your returns are a JOKE.

I could go on with other indices as well but you get the picture. ;)

Those planning on spending their retirement on mutual fund returns have ensured a happy retirement for their overpaid fund managers and no one else.

The Japanese learned long ago not to play Obligopoly; they turned to video games instead.


The Western world is now learning the same lesson; what will they play?

My guess is "Greeny in the Bank of Sealy" will be popular until we get POOM and baseball cards act as new currency.

[goadam1]

Re: Monday Blood bath for the Dow?

Methinks the decline is too much like a frog being slowly cooked in a pot. The water grows hotter until the frog is cooked but for a time the frog is very comfortable.

[cjppjc]

Re: Monday Blood bath for the Dow?

I'll tell you what. That Dylan Raddigan isn't helping much:mad:

[D-Mack]

Re: Monday Blood bath for the Dow?

300pts is not that bad

[goadam1]

Re: Monday Blood bath for the Dow?

Thank God. I was getting a little bored for a moment.

[ASH]

Re: Monday Blood bath for the Dow?

Methinks the decline is too much like a frog being slowly cooked in a pot. The water grows hotter until the frog is cooked but for a time the frog is very comfortable.

I wonder. The frog cannot be very comfortable at this point. My inlaws certainly agonize about the decimation of their portfolio as they watch the date of their planned retirement recede into the future.

I don't know if steady acclimation is quite the right analogy. I wonder how much of the market's recent motion is driven by small time retail investors (such as my inlaws) versus professional money managers. I think the retail investors are slow to unlearn the "buy and hold" programming they've been subjected to from every mainstream source for the past couple of decades, and are scared of realizing losses. They never thought the market was over-valued to begin with (because the financial industry's captive press told them so), and they see the recent drop as an aberration. Therefore, their expectation is a rapid "return to normalcy", and they are more afraid of missing out on the recovery than they are of sustaining further losses. Further, the buy-and-hold programming prevented most of them from selling in the early stages of the bust, and now the market has fallen far lower than any of them could have imagined. At this point, I imagine the shock of unexpectedly losing half the value of their portfolio is so severe that the psychological perception of losing another 25% is almost equivalent -- in their minds, they have already lost everything.

Rather than frog-in-a-pot, I wonder if a more gradual decline would have caused more retail investors to exit the market sooner (point wise). If stocks had been on a gradual losing streak for a year or two, perhaps fewer retail investors would have felt the drop was an aberration, and fewer would have been psychologically trapped by the shock of the decline.

[Basil]

Re: Monday Blood bath for the Dow?

I wonder. The frog cannot be very comfortable at this point. My inlaws certainly agonize about the decimation of their portfolio as they watch the date of their planned retirement recede into the future.

I don't know if steady acclimation is quite the right analogy. I wonder how much of the market's recent motion is driven by small time retail investors (such as my inlaws) versus professional money managers. I think the retail investors are slow to unlearn the "buy and hold" programming they've been subjected to from every mainstream source for the past couple of decades, and are scared of realizing losses. They never thought the market was over-valued to begin with (because the financial industry's captive press told them so), and they see the recent drop as an aberration. Therefore, their expectation is a rapid "return to normalcy", and they are more afraid of missing out on the recovery than they are of sustaining further losses. Further, the buy-and-hold programming prevented most of them from selling in the early stages of the bust, and now the market has fallen far lower than any of them could have imagined. At this point, I imagine the shock of unexpectedly losing half the value of their portfolio is so severe that the psychological perception of losing another 25% is almost equivalent -- in their minds, they have already lost everything.

Rather than frog-in-a-pot, I wonder if a more gradual decline would have caused more retail investors to exit the market sooner (point wise). If stocks had been on a gradual losing streak for a year or two, perhaps fewer retail investors would have felt the drop was an aberration, and fewer would have been psychologically trapped by the shock of the decline.

Yes, perhaps a dear in the headlights is the better analogy.

[Guest]

Re: Monday Blood bath for the Dow?

That would be a "deer". A "dear" is a loved one, which one wouldn't want to park in front of oncoming headlights. Come to think of it, neither would one want to park a "deer" in the .... oh, forget it.

Yes, perhaps a dear in the headlights is the better analogy.