CA Unemployment Jumps to 10.1%

[BobinSFCA]

The unemployment news just keeps coming:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...1S11.DTL&tsp=1

In addition to the above article, I saw a TV news report on employment in the Central Valley being in the 20 to 30% range due to our increasing drought. No water, less crops, less employment for farm workers. I wonder how much of this is related to this.

As an auditor, I visit a lot of companies. Most I work with seem to be holding their own, but with cutbacks and planned employment cutbacks that haven't occurred yet but are coming. A few weaker ones have gone into bankruptcy.

[metalman]

Re: CA Unemployment Jumps to 10.1%

The unemployment news just keeps coming:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...1S11.DTL&tsp=1

In addition to the above article, I saw a TV news report on employment in the Central Valley being in the 20 to 30% range due to our increasing drought. No water, less crops, less employment for farm workers. I wonder how much of this is related to this.

As an auditor, I visit a lot of companies. Most I work with seem to be holding their own, but with cutbacks and planned employment cutbacks that haven't occurred yet but are coming. A few weaker ones have gone into bankruptcy.

friggin' itulip... what a pack of optimists...

Forecast July 2008

Ground Zero state
National Unemployment Growth Rank: 4
Macro-economic Vulnerability: High
Unemployment Growth Rate: High
Estimated Post Recession Peak Unemployment Rate: 10%
Future Home Values Rating: Poor

Actual January 2009

Reassessment: With unemployment already pushing 8.5% from 6.5% at the time of our previous forecast, we are revising our forecast for CA unemployment to peak at 12% versus 10%.

do i hear 15%? 20% :eek:

[rabot10]

Re: CA Unemployment Jumps to 10.1%

Mr Wilder,

I see 35% in the next few years jmho.

rick

[goadam1]

Re: CA Unemployment Jumps to 10.1%

I keep being confused on this site. Here is a forecast for 12% unemployment and other places I hear 20% or even 25%.

[rabot10]

Re: CA Unemployment Jumps to 10.1%

I keep being confused on this site. Here is a forecast for 12% unemployment and other places I hear 20% or even 25%.

Meds handle that for me, you mite want to try it out

[goadam1]

Re: CA Unemployment Jumps to 10.1%

Okay here is Fred's response to a question I asked.

All of iTulip's unemployment forecasts are consistent and use the BLS's U-3 unemployment data:
In total we see the US economy losing between seven and 13 million jobs by the end of 2009 representing a 5% to 10% increase in unemployment. Our forecasts during this crisis have tended to be on the optimistic side; steeper job losses cannot be ruled out, especially if other feedback loops intensify. For example, rising unemployment will lead to a further 20% to 40% decline in real estate prices as households lose access to income to pay mortgage debt. A further tightening of credit as the pool of credit-worthy borrowers contracts means even deeper losses in Wholesale Trade, leading to more unemployment, and so on. - Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression? - Eric Janszen
July 2, 2008 in our state by state U.S. unemployment forecast Housing Bubble Correction Update: Fasten your seat belts, here comes the jobs crash we said, “The rate of growth in unemployment in some states may shock you...” In November 2008 we published our industry sector analysis of future unemployment Unemployment by industry: Brace for Impact that concluded, “In total we see the US economy losing between seven and 13 million jobs by the end of 2009 representing a 5% to 10% increase in unemployment.” Investors who got sucked into the early year rally (see Beware Relief Rallies Update 1: DJIA 7552 the Debt Deflation Bear Market bottom?) took a beating today when the two "surprising" unemployment reports shocked the market, producing a 245 point drop in the DJIA on the news. - Jobs crash arrives on schedule - Eric Janszen
Unemployment is forecast to go as high as 15% in 2009 and as high as 20% in 2010.

That's:
Peak 2009: 15%
Peak 2010: 20%
That said, with layoff notices some days this month coming in at a 20 million annual rate, we may have to revise our forecast upwards.



And above is a call for 12%

[zoog]

Re: CA Unemployment Jumps to 10.1%

I keep being confused on this site. Here is a forecast for 12% unemployment and other places I hear 20% or even 25%.

Okay here is Fred's response to a question I asked.

All of iTulip's unemployment forecasts are consistent and use the BLS's U-3 unemployment data:
In total we see the US economy losing between seven and 13 million jobs by the end of 2009 representing a 5% to 10% increase in unemployment. Our forecasts during this crisis have tended to be on the optimistic side; steeper job losses cannot be ruled out, especially if other feedback loops intensify. For example, rising unemployment will lead to a further 20% to 40% decline in real estate prices as households lose access to income to pay mortgage debt. A further tightening of credit as the pool of credit-worthy borrowers contracts means even deeper losses in Wholesale Trade, leading to more unemployment, and so on. - Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression? - Eric Janszen
July 2, 2008 in our state by state U.S. unemployment forecast Housing Bubble Correction Update: Fasten your seat belts, here comes the jobs crash we said, “The rate of growth in unemployment in some states may shock you...” In November 2008 we published our industry sector analysis of future unemployment Unemployment by industry: Brace for Impact that concluded, “In total we see the US economy losing between seven and 13 million jobs by the end of 2009 representing a 5% to 10% increase in unemployment.” Investors who got sucked into the early year rally (see Beware Relief Rallies Update 1: DJIA 7552 the Debt Deflation Bear Market bottom?) took a beating today when the two "surprising" unemployment reports shocked the market, producing a 245 point drop in the DJIA on the news. - Jobs crash arrives on schedule - Eric Janszen
Unemployment is forecast to go as high as 15% in 2009 and as high as 20% in 2010.

That's:
Peak 2009: 15%
Peak 2010: 20%
That said, with layoff notices some days this month coming in at a 20 million annual rate, we may have to revise our forecast upwards.



And above is a call for 12%

...for California. The 2009 15% and 2010 20% in FRED's post was for the national number. But the California number will probably end up higher than 12%, the way things are going, so why don't you just figure on 20% unemployment all across the board.