A Video for Fred/EJ....(Gold bugs do not watch!)

[Guest]

Re: A Video for Fred/EJ....(Gold bugs do not watch!)

SEE, GOLD PRICE IN USD HAS BEEN SOARING!

SEE - GOLD PRICE HAS BEEN SOARING! 01.jpg

SEE, GOLD PRICE IN USD HAS BEEN COLLAPSING!

[ATTACH]1149[/ATTACH]

SEE, GOLD PRICE IN USD HAS BEEN GOING NOWHERE!

SEE - GOLD PRICE HAS BEEN GOING NOWHERE! 05.jpg

SEE, GOLD PRICE IN USD HAS BEEN SOARING!!

SEE - GOLD PRICES! - 07.jpg

PLAY THE GOLD STOCKS REBOUND, QUICK - BCOZ THEY ARE "SOARING"!

[renewable]

Re: A Video for Fred/EJ....(Gold bugs do not watch!)

You're projecting an awful lot into what seemed to be a pretty simple statement

[Guest]

Re: A Video for Fred/EJ....(Gold bugs do not watch!)

Renewable - to suggest Hugh Hendry has been "wrong so far" because he has not "played" a rebound in the gold stocks subsequent to their near death experience is indeed a "simple" statement. He's a hedge fund manager, and a good one. We are in the middle pause of an ongoing market meltdown. This sort of play is for the small private market speculators who are either very experienced, or not very experienced at all. I'm not "projecting" anything. I'm observing that any comment about Hendry having been "wrong" in choosing not to dabble in this stuff is naive.

You're projecting an awful lot into what seemed to be a pretty simple statement

[rabot10]

Re: A Video for Fred/EJ....(Gold bugs do not watch!)

does anyone else understand how completely idiotic that is? -5% deflation across the world? for years? how lame. has that ever occurred in history? no? gee, wonder why. :rolleyes:

Metal YES I do, whats up with Luke is he a paid shill of itulip to foster opposing views? Most of his post seem intelligent, but lately he has become somewhat of an idiot.

[GRG55]

Re: A Video for Fred/EJ....(Gold bugs do not watch!)

He has been wrong on Gold so far. In video 5 he said he owns no gold and is short goldstocks. Many of them have doubled since mid December.

He made 38% for his clients in 2008. How did you do?

[kartius919]

Re: A Video for Fred/EJ....(Gold bugs do not watch!)

Where did you get the 38%?

http://www.citywire.co.uk/adviser/fu...wireClassID=15

[kartius919]

Re: A Video for Fred/EJ....(Gold bugs do not watch!)

http://www.eclectica-am.com/fundlist...arget=fundlist

The Euro Fund did reach 28% but then dropped like a rock thereafter. None of their "authorized funds" ended '08 with anything close to 28%.

[kartius919]

Re: A Video for Fred/EJ....(Gold bugs do not watch!)

Sorry the 28% is since inception so it is possible that they may have reached 38%, but that was likely near their peak. The second half of '08 was not pretty.

[GRG55]

Re: A Video for Fred/EJ....(Gold bugs do not watch!)

Sorry the 28% is since inception so it is possible that they may have reached 38%, but that was likely near their peak. The second half of '08 was not pretty.

Good catch!

I should have checked. I took it from a year end interview of his. But I should have verified it independently.

[renewable]

Re: A Video for Fred/EJ....(Gold bugs do not watch!)

Renewable - to suggest Hugh Hendry has been "wrong so far" because he has not "played" a rebound in the gold stocks subsequent to their near death experience is indeed a "simple" statement. He's a hedge fund manager, and a good one. We are in the middle pause of an ongoing market meltdown. This sort of play is for the small private market speculators who are either very experienced, or not very experienced at all. I'm not "projecting" anything. I'm observing that any comment about Hendry having been "wrong" in choosing not to dabble in this stuff is naive.

My point was that you seem to be reading an awful lot into a pretty innocuous statement. You are also extensively misusing quotation marks. (where did "wrong footed charlie" come from?). Your knowledge is clearly vastly superior to mine; but I don't see the need to react so aggressively.

The is a good chance you are correct as you think you are. That does not mean that others are not permitted to give their opinion on the possible accuracy of some traders guesses as to what may happen in the future.

I'm sorry, but statements like 'I give him 100% for sussing out the next two year trend.' are sheer hubris.

To then say 'It is in fact altogether to Hugh Hendry's credit (and was entirely to be expected) that he would not touch gold stock speculation in a generalised equities bear market with a ten foot barge pole.'

i.e. to say because he made a trade wrong proves he is right, and then go on to accuse others of 'C O G N I T I V E ... D I S S O N A N C E' is rather amusing.

[Guest]

Re: A Video for Fred/EJ....(Gold bugs do not watch!)

Your knowledge is clearly vastly superior to mine

Renewable. Best to get one thing at least clarified so we have a meeting of the minds on some minimal level. I have not the foggiest clue where you get the impression my "knowledge is vastly superior" to yours. More than likely it isn't and we merely employ different notions of common sense. There's an even chance you were merely being sarcastic in which case the comment is rational, but in the remote eventuality that you were being sincere, please abandon this notion ASAP as there is not a scrap of truth in it. Nor am I denying you in any way your right to post your own disagreements, to your hearts content.

However if you consider that a hedge fund director proves his worth by the extent to which he rides gold stocks rebounds in bear markets, that is not in my view a reliable indicator of his current performance. There are some of us who would regard speculative rebound plays in the gold stocks as questionable in any money manager, but you don't wish to see it that way. My posting style (firmly challenging) is whatever it is. I uphold your right to post in whatever style you wish, and I expect to be provided the permission to continue with mine.

My point was: The thesis above, that this Hedge Fund manager has demonstrated "ineptitude" by not riding a gold stock rebound in my opinion has no merit.

[Thailandnotes]

Re: A Video for Fred/EJ....(Gold bugs do not watch!)

Luke,

Do you think it's impossible for both the USD and Gold to keep rising?

Like to read more on the short term (1 year) possibility of this.



Stocks Fall as Investors Flock to Treasuries

Gold Increases as Investors Seek Haven From Financial Turmoil

[renewable]

Re: A Video for Fred/EJ....(Gold bugs do not watch!)

My point was: The thesis above, that this Hedge Fund manager has demonstrated "ineptitude" by not riding a gold stock rebound in my opinion has no merit.

You're doing it again - who said "ineptitude"? - it is confusing to put things you are inferring in quotation marks.

The point was simple. He's a trader and he made a trade wrong.

To speculate on the reasons he may have done so is, imo, relatively immaterial.

[Guest]

Re: A Video for Fred/EJ....(Gold bugs do not watch!)

OK, sorry, my bad. I'm using the wrong paraphrased terms and it's impeding a clear understanding of the point, which is very straightforward.

QUOTE: "The point was simple. He's a trader and he made a trade wrong".

This is an incorrect assumption on your part. You are claiming that you can pick any asset that was rising or falling in the past three months and any hedge fund manager who did not choose to trade it "made a mistake". If you assert this as an axiomatic truth then you need to apply it everywhere, to all assets and if you do a short survey you can see this idea gets silly real fast when applied universally. Your thesis would have to equally apply to ALL missed trades ANY hedge fund manager chooses to make, or not make. So here according to your thesis, Hugh Hendry "made a wrong trade" by not further shorting financials, or not going long natgas, or not putting short positions onto the Japanese YEN. The logic is false, and is even specious. There is a whole anarchic universe of trades to make any given month of the year.

The "tecnicians" are actively now recommending to their clients to GO SHORT the gold stocks because they've gone very far on what is a technical rebound. Your thesis is that all managers who have not ridden this technical rebound in gold stocks have "made a mistake". Not true. Any given fund manager would adopt or reiject your thesis based upon their investing style. If this trade was not to their parameters, it would be immaterial whether it was a good trade or not, it was for them an "inappropriate" trade. Is this really so difficult to understand? My objection is this: it is inappropriate on your part to claim that any fund manager "made a mistake" by not being in a trade which went up because it was a trade YOU thought they must be in. Other investors in his fund might consider his choice to sidestep this trade as the mark of a more sober investing style.

It should be a self evident distinction, but we are belaboring this point. As some quite good technicians are now saying the gold stocks are an obvious short, your own one size fits all logic should now be concluding his stance is now the correct position to be in, and all other fund managers not short the gold stocks are now "making a mistake". See how quickly this assertion gets inapplicable?

You're doing it again - who said "ineptitude"? - it is confusing to put things you are inferring in quotation marks. The point was simple. He's a trader and he made a trade wrong. To speculate on the reasons he may have done so is, imo, relatively immaterial.

[renewable]

Re: A Video for Fred/EJ....(Gold bugs do not watch!)

This is an incorrect assumption on your part. You are claiming that you can pick any asset that was rising or falling in the past three months and any hedge fund manager who did not choose to trade it "made a mistake".

No I am not. It is not a case of him choosing not to trade it, not to ride it.

He actively went short on something that went up. Quite different.