Mad Max Mexico - Unlikely in the U.S.

[World Traveler]

The LA Times has been running a series on the incredible violence running through Mexican towns and cities due to the "war" between the government and the drug cartels, and the war between the Sinaloa and Gulf drug cartels. Due to successes in suppressing Colombia's drug cartels, the Mexican cartels have taken over.

Read through some of the articles and you'll see what a real, live Mad Max world looks like.

Ineffective and corrupt police often allied to one of the drug cartels. Army units sent in to restore calm are ambushed when local police tip off the drug cartels on army patrol routes. An honest, newly-imported police chief forced to resign when the local drug cartel carries out its threat to kill police officers until he leaves. Shootings and kidnappings in broad daylight. Families, including children, wiped out during home invasions.

I agree with iTulip's assessment that we are unlikely to see these conditions in the U.S. A Mad Max usually only develops when state authority has broken down due to wars (like WW 2 or Yugoslavia) or if there are certain pre-conditions that allow a so-called peaceful nation to tip into a Mad Max world.

Mexico has those pre-conditions and the U.S. does not. An extremely high level of poverty, that makes drug cartel life an attractive option for young and poor - at least they can make some money that way. An under-paid police force that is open to bribery, in order to supplement their meager pay. A society that openly acknowleges high levels of corruption in goverment, but seems powerless to change it. It all breeds a sense of hopelessness.

In the U.S., the police forces are still fairly honest. The citizens still have hope, are law-abiding, and elections are fairly honest. Accepting bribies while in government office is widely frowned upon and punished when caught. Society does its best to make sure crime does not pay, especially violent crime.

"Gunmen hit the homes of Carlos Reyes Lopez and his extended family; a 2-year-old nephew and five other children are among the dead. Reyes Lopez was a member of an elite agency tackling police corruption..."

"In the state of Zacatecas, residents of Villanueva demanded that the military take over. The soldiers came, but drug war violence got worse..."

"The police chief in violence-torn Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, quit Friday after several officers were slain this week and the killers posted threats that more would die unless he resigned...."

http://projects.latimes.com/mexico-drug-war/#/its-a-war

[WDCRob]

Re: Mad Max Mexico - Unlikely in the U.S.

I mostly agree with this, and was glad to see Eric make a statement re: all the EOTWAWKI talk here, but you only have to go back to the late 1980s to see the tip of the iceberg of what IS possible here.

DC wanted to put the National Guard on the streets do to the drug trade and IIRC there were more than 450 people murdered in DC in a single year during that era. In an extended period of desperation and deprivation it's not too hard to imagine parts of some major urban areas that would essentially become warzones and off-limits to law-abiding and/or sane citizens.

[jimmygu3]

Re: Mad Max Mexico - Unlikely in the U.S.

"The police chief in violence-torn Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, quit Friday after several officers were slain this week and the killers posted threats that more would die unless he resigned...."

Juarez borders El Paso, Texas. Hope the violence stays contained south of the border.

[Sapiens]

Re: Mad Max Mexico - Unlikely in the U.S.

Most people in Mexico are not armed. An armed population does not engender Mad Max, quite the opposite, people tend to respect others if they know they may get shot.

A Mad Max scenario in the U.S. is quite unlikely, but nevertheless possible.

[goadam1]

Re: Mad Max Mexico - Unlikely in the U.S.

My friends dad was murdered in his Rosarito house in 1997. I think they cut him up in his house. Nasty. So, it's been a little sketch in Mexico for awhile.

[Master Shake]

Re: Mad Max Mexico - Unlikely in the U.S.

The LA Times has been running a series on the incredible violence running through Mexican towns and cities due to the "war" between the government and the drug cartels, and the war between the Sinaloa and Gulf drug cartels. Due to successes in suppressing Colombia's drug cartels, the Mexican cartels have taken over.

Read through some of the articles and you'll see what a real, live Mad Max world looks like.

Ineffective and corrupt police often allied to one of the drug cartels. Army units sent in to restore calm are ambushed when local police tip off the drug cartels on army patrol routes. An honest, newly-imported police chief forced to resign when the local drug cartel carries out its threat to kill police officers until he leaves. Shootings and kidnappings in broad daylight. Families, including children, wiped out during home invasions.

I agree with iTulip's assessment that we are unlikely to see these conditions in the U.S. A Mad Max usually only develops when state authority has broken down due to wars (like WW 2 or Yugoslavia) or if there are certain pre-conditions that allow a so-called peaceful nation to tip into a Mad Max world.

Mexico has those pre-conditions and the U.S. does not. An extremely high level of poverty, that makes drug cartel life an attractive option for young and poor - at least they can make some money that way. An under-paid police force that is open to bribery, in order to supplement their meager pay. A society that openly acknowleges high levels of corruption in goverment, but seems powerless to change it. It all breeds a sense of hopelessness.

In the U.S., the police forces are still fairly honest. The citizens still have hope, are law-abiding, and elections are fairly honest. Accepting bribies while in government office is widely frowned upon and punished when caught. Society does its best to make sure crime does not pay, especially violent crime.

"Gunmen hit the homes of Carlos Reyes Lopez and his extended family; a 2-year-old nephew and five other children are among the dead. Reyes Lopez was a member of an elite agency tackling police corruption..."

"In the state of Zacatecas, residents of Villanueva demanded that the military take over. The soldiers came, but drug war violence got worse..."

"The police chief in violence-torn Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, quit Friday after several officers were slain this week and the killers posted threats that more would die unless he resigned...."

http://projects.latimes.com/mexico-drug-war/#/its-a-war

Unfortunately, we have a lot of Mexican and other Latin American peasants here illegally. That doesn't mean we're going to have Mexico like conditions, but illegals commit a disproportionate amount of crime already. I have to believe that will get worse.

[Yaowarat]

Re: Mad Max Mexico - Unlikely in the U.S.

I mostly agree with this, and was glad to see Eric make a statement re: all the EOTWAWKI talk here, but you only have to go back to the late 1980s to see the tip of the iceberg of what IS possible here.

Jim Rogers: I expect to see civil unrest in the U.S

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBRHmZiAEcs

[zoog]

Re: Mad Max Mexico - Unlikely in the U.S.

Unfortunately, we have a lot of Mexican and other Latin American peasants here illegally. That doesn't mean we're going to have Mexico like conditions, but illegals commit a disproportionate amount of crime already. I have to believe that will get worse.

I think it's worth noting that virtually all of this is committed by members of gangs such as MS-13. It has been estimated that as much as 90% of MS-13 members are illegal aliens.

Wikipedia and other sources estimate around 11 to 12 million illegal immigrants in the US. Some say as much as 20 million.

The 2009 National Gang Threat Assessment estimates about 1 million gang members in the US. Not all of them are illegal immigrants of course, so figure roughly 10% of illegal immigrants are gang members.

I realize illegal immigration is a hot issue for a lot of people, and my own views are mixed, but we should be careful to not paint with a broad brush.

Some time back, say a couple years ago, I figured that after unemployment reached high enough levels, our illegal immigration problem would largely solve itself. No work, they go back home. However, after reading about the current and possible future conditions in Mexico, I am beginning to question that logic. Even being homeless in America is better than some places in the world.