Gold...........Which way its going?

[Starving Steve]

Re: Gold...........Which way its going?

My male point-of-view is that all of the bad news possible is in the market already. Only one piece of bad news--- inflation--- is missing, and sadly, if the markets see inflation, they probably would take that to be good news at this point. So even with inflation, gold could sell-off, at least initially.

I don't see any central banks running to buy gold except for maybe Russia. And there is a good reason for this: All of the world's central banks are in the same boat, so they don't dare start a run on paper.

[Glenn Black]

Gold Market Manipulation

You seem to be implying that the gold market is being manipulated, run it up, they make money while long, then they decide to short and run it down. As long as the price is moving up or down, they make money.

If that is true, buying gold is a crap shoot.

Who holds the most gold? They could sell almost forever, totally flooding the market.

Many years ago, I believe it was Rothchild who did that same ploy when they had just a few hours pre-notice about Napoleon/Wellington at Waterloo. They made millions & billions.

Gold scares me because it is so easily manipulated, and the gains are so large. All the logic of Ka-Poom could go out the window just because "they" decide to invalidate Ka-Poom to teach iTulip et al. a lesson.

[Starving Steve]

Re: Gold...........Which way its going?

If you haven't noticed recently, every market has turned into a gunslinging match. Everything is just numbers now, and who can move fastest..... That is one of the reasons why confidence may never return, especially to the American markets.

Let this incredible train wreck be a lesson to every person who may have been silly enough to believe in de-regulation, free market capitalism, low interest rates, and supply-side economics.

Let this be a lesson to the Federal Reserve Bank, especially.

[raja]

Re: Gold...........Which way its going?

The short answer on GLD is that you're fine if there is no systemic crisis, but the main reason gold is rising in price right now is that people fear a systemic crisis. GLD is a bad idea if you want to use it as insurance against a sudden dollar crisis, a financial panic, or problems the federal government may experience financing its deficit. GLD is an okay idea if you think the financial system will hold together alright, but I think GTU and CEF may be better indirect methods of holding gold. Physical gold in your direct possession -- or physical gold vaulted in a gold-friendly country (e.g. Bullionvault) would be a much better idea if you fear systemic instability.

Here is a lengthy post I wrote some time back that looks at the mechanics of GLD, and some of the risks. I caution you that I'm not any sort of financial expert, so the post is really just a "book report" after having read the prospectus. Also, I recommend you read the posts from others to that thread.

As regards where to buy physical bullion... I have had good experiences buying from Bullion Direct.

I usually invest one level (in the negative direction) beyond what I think is going to happen. In other words, if I expect big inflation, I prepare for hyperinflation to some degree.

Up until last week, I had a considerable amount in GTU. I sold almost all of it and bought gold coins.

When I first bought GTU, I did some research and found that my GTU stock was not registered in my name, but rather in a group registration of my broker, Ameritrade. I debated whether to call Ameritrade and have them send me the registration certificate for the stocks (I don't recall the fee for this), but in the end did nothing. Things have changed . . . .

So, if you hold GTU or any other stock, you may be putting your faith in the brokerage as well as the government insurance program. With the way things have been going lately, I decided to that I wanted this part of my assets directly under my control. :eek:

[ax]

Re: Gold...........Which way its going?

Anybody surprised there was no rush to gold today?

[Guest]

Re: Gold...........Which way its going?

Nah. Not surprised.

Anybody surprised there was no rush to gold today?

[Thailandnotes]

Re: Gold...........Which way its going?

12 reasons to short gold, or not.

http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/0...nt-advice.html

[ax]

Re: Gold...........Which way its going?

Didn't think you would be, Lukester.

[ASH]

Re: Gold...........Which way its going?

Nah. Not surprised.

I think you've done a good job planting a stake in the ground on this one. Lukester sez -- gold down, stocks up, in the short term. Regardless of how much credence one gives to short-range market forecasting in the middle of a financial crisis, I think you've also done a good job of describing what those who are presently long PM, but are not short-term traders, should do -- which is nothing.

I do think today's price action is a good data point for those trying to divine whether deleveraging is done, and to what degree the gold market is responding to fear versus the currents of speculative trading.

[metalman]

Re: Gold...........Which way its going?

gold down, stocks up, in the short term.

stocks have tanked after each and every one of luke's 'powerful rally coming!' calls.

but, fear not! his daily calls for gold to fall... at last rewarded on his 23rd try.

kudos, luke! well done!

you hit a bogie fer sure!

[ASH]

Re: Gold...........Which way its going?

stocks have tanked after each and every one of luke's 'powerful rally coming!' calls.

On the other hand, stocks tanked after his 'second major leg down' call, too. That was inconvenient for me, because I had selected that as the first test case to disprove (to myself) the value of technical analysis (which, I gather, is roughly where some of the calls originate). Since I'm not a trader, I haven't really followed any of his other calls, so I'm not in a position to comment about the success rate. I'm enthusiastic about Lukester's recent 'powerful rally coming!' call because he was pretty emphatic about its timing and magnitude. I'm going to be using that as a second test case. If it is borne out, I may have to start showing TA some respect.

It's a little like my approach to Symbols' theory -- I'm not a believer, but I want to pay close enough attention to recognize my mistake if Symbols turns out to be right. When one of the regulars here makes a concrete call that is wildly divergent from iTulip's position, that makes it easy to track.

What am I actually doing? I may take note of a few of Lukester's calls, and offer my own (largely valueless) opinions about the price of gold, but at the end of the day I'm doing practically nothing. I haven't made a trade in months. Except for the detail of exact PM-to-cash asset ratio, I'm pretty much following iTulip's advice. I'm not trading in what I see as a chaotic market, and I'm holding PM and cash in the expectation of inflation and a weaker dollar. Part of viewing the market as chaotic is not even having an actionable short-term expectation about price movements.

[Guest]

Re: Gold...........Which way its going?

You guys don't know anything about "waving the rubber chicken". There's a way to wave the rubber chicken in front of a live Bloomberg terminal that's infallible. I learned it from a rubber chicken shaman. :cool:

[metalman]

Re: Gold...........Which way its going?

You guys don't know anything about "waving the rubber chicken". There's a way to wave the rubber chicken in front of a live Bloomberg terminal that's infallible. I learned it from a rubber chicken shaman. :cool:

[ASH]

Re: Gold...........Which way its going?

Anybody surprised there was no rush to gold today?

But, today (5 March 2009), we're back to stocks down/gold up. Makes me think we're looking at more noise than signal.

[FRED]

Re: Gold...........Which way its going?

But, today (5 March 2009), we're back to stocks down/gold up. Makes me think we're looking at more noise than signal.

You can say that again. Our thesis on gold and stocks since 2001: gold up, stocks down. Here's the DOW/Gold ratio from our August 2001 article on gold.

Jimmy reported recently:

The Dow/Gold ratio has declined from 15.34 in September '08 to 7.65 today. The previous 50% drop took 5 years.

We are approaching our 2:1 DOW/Gold target. It will be time to think about buying equities and selling gold when that target is confirmed by a ratio close to 2:1 AND sentiment solidly "Equities are dead."