The great patriotic repatriation ....

[Supercilious]

Starts earlier than I've expected:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/econom...51G3MS20090217

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Net capital inflows into the United States rose to $74.0 billion in December from a revised inflow of $61.3 billion in November, the Treasury Department said on Tuesday.
KEY POINTS: * The department originally reported inflows of $56.8 billion in November. * December's capital inflows were more than sufficient to cover the month's trade deficit of $39.9 billion. * Net long-term capital flows excluding swaps showed an inflow of $34.8 billion in December, compared with revised outflows of $25.6 billion the previous month. November's figure was initially reported by the Treasury as an outflow of $21.7 billion.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...vYU&refer=home

International investors bought a net $41 billion in U.S. corporate debt in December, after five straight months of net selling, the report showed.
Net foreign purchases of Treasury notes and bonds were $14.9 billion, compared with sales of $25.8 billion a month earlier. Net purchases of Treasury bills were $25.3 billion, down from $82.1 billion in November.
Net foreign official selling of long-term U.S. assets totaled $2.8 billion, after net sales of $37.1 billion the previous month, the report showed.
[...]
Some economists say the difference between the trade deficit and securities purchased by foreigners is an indicator of how easily the U.S. can finance its external obligations.
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed 4 percent in December to $39.9 billion, the smallest in almost six years, as imports and exports declined for the fifth straight month, the Commerce Department said in a report Feb. 11.

Some 20 years ago the scare was with Japan taking over US.... Nowadays, nobody seems to be very concerned with Japan having $1trillion in reserves, because they have a 180% debt to GDP ratio. This is how the scam of deficits as real negative interest loans works.


Does anyone remembers that talk about making it illegal to sell Japanese cars in US?

[metalman]

Re: The great patriotic repatriation ....

Starts earlier than I've expected:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/econom...51G3MS20090217

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...vYU&refer=home

Some 20 years ago the scare was with Japan taking over US.... Nowadays, nobody seems to be very concerned with Japan having $1trillion in reserves, because they have a 180% debt to GDP ratio. This is how the scam of deficits as real negative interest loans works.


Does anyone remembers that talk about making it illegal to sell Japanese cars in US?

yep, old news. it's all here... Headed for a Sudden Stop? and here... Global Finance Disneyland Demolition

Foreign assets in the US and US assets in the US are both flowing out of the US. Vincent Reinhart writing for AEI notes in a recent analysis as we have that the US has been the beneficiary of a capital flow bonanza.

here's the forecast...



here's the watch list...

One down, 13 to go.

Countries with recent notable capital inflows	2006	2007	2008
Bulgaria	√	√	√
Iceland	√	√	X
Italy	√	√	√
Jamaica	√	√	√
Latvia	√	√	√
New Zealand	√	√	√
Pakistan	√	√	√
Romania	√	√	√
Slovenia	√	√	√
South Africa	√	√	√
Spain	√	√	√
Turkey	√	√	√
United Kingdom	√	√	√
United States	√	√	√

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook (10/08) and authors' calculations.

one of those cases where you don't want to be #1. we're #13! we're #13!

[sishya]

Re: The great patriotic repatriation ....

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Net capital inflows into the United States rose to $74.0 billion in December from a revised inflow of $61.3 billion in November, the Treasury Department said on Tuesday.
KEY POINTS: * The department originally reported inflows of $56.8 billion in November. * December's capital inflows were more than sufficient to cover the month's trade deficit of $39.9 billion. * Net long-term capital flows excluding swaps showed an inflow of $34.8 billion in December, compared with revised outflows of $25.6 billion the previous month. November's figure was initially reported by the Treasury as an outflow of $21.7 billion

So now where have all the US doomers gone. "In the land of noseless, the one with a broken nose is the King".

Now where is this money coming from to USA ? Are US companies liquidating their companies and bringing capital back ? Or are Chinese Oligarch's converting Yuan to USD and transferring to US ?

Can Gold and USD rise at the same time. Something has to give. We are in strange times.

[gwynedd1]

Re: The great patriotic repatriation ....

Since there is another duplicate that was requested to be deleted.I will post here.



http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/11/...erg/bxbond.php

Overseas investors owned Ą38.4 trillion of the Ą662 trillion in government bonds outstanding as of June 30, according to the Bank of Japan. Foreign ownership rose to 5.8 percent from 3 percent at the end of 2003. Japan's debt exceeds U.S. marketable government securities by about 30 percent.

So why is there a bond market in Japan with their rock bottom interest rate? If they want to spew Yen all over the place why not run deficits by cutting taxes to the bone? I will tell you why. The banks would lose out on the free money, thats why.

[c1ue]

Re: The great patriotic repatriation ....

The reason there is a bond market in Japan is the Japanese postal pension scheme.

The Japanese postal institution also holds a gigantic amount of Japanese savings as its other function. What else would this organization invest in given its 'public/private'-like status?

[Supercilious]

Re: The great patriotic repatriation ....

So why is there a bond market in Japan with their rock bottom interest rate? If they want to spew Yen all over the place why not run deficits by cutting taxes to the bone? I will tell you why. The banks would lose out on the free money, thats why.

Exactly. The quantitative easing and the lost decade was done only to avoid looses for the local smart money. And the whole country suffers.

So now where have all the US doomers gone. "In the land of noseless, the one with a broken nose is the King".

sishya there is enough doom all over. People are loosing their jobs, their houses, even their minds. What I'm trying to say is that when the situation was going down the drain in US we were lied everything is OK and there is no recession.

When deflation (or disinflation according to other views) hit hard after the fall of Lehman a lot of investors were scared into building inflation hedges in stock.

Now when there are elements of recovery we are told the situation is hopeless, the world will end soon and we all going to die or revert to a Somalia state.

The whole idea is too keep the sheeple majority always in the dark, and always distracted by the wrong idea of threat. This is how financial oligarchs are always making money.

Now where is this money coming from to USA ? Are US companies liquidating their companies and bringing capital back ? Or are Chinese Oligarch's converting Yuan to USD and transferring to US ?

I think it's a little bit of both. And it's not only about China. There are also Russian oligarchs who took loans from western banks and now are deleveraging, Sheiks from Dubai .... even Mugabe wanted to buy a $10 mil mansion in Switzerland but he had to make it with a $4.5 mil house in HK.

Can Gold and USD rise at the same time. Something has to give. We are in strange times.

That is very well possible, although I don't know if it will happen.

I believe though the end game is a dollar depreciation of about 20-30% with respect to major currencies, the complete breaking of the dollar pegs (starting with the obscenely mercantilistic Chinese peg and ending with the oversized ego Ruble peg), followed by a domino effect of depressions and recession in ROW that would transform the Fed or a global institution acting as proxy for the Fed in the ultimate global net lender. When the dollar seignorage is extended at the global level ... well, ... the result is obvious.

Things are actually not that complicated, and behind the clouds of chaff there is a simple truth: the financial interests controlling the Fed (the really smart money) have a very limited set of options available in order to conserve their wealth, extend their control and accumulate more money and power. There is a great Friedman quote in his latest book:

"Geopolitics and economics both assume that the players are rational, at least in the sense of knowing their own short-term self-interest. As rational actors, reality provides them with limited choices. It is assumed that, on the whole, people and nations will pursue their self-interest, if not flawlessly, then at least not randomly. Think of a chess game. On the surface, it appears that each player has twenty potential opening moves. In fact, there are many fewer because most of these moves are so bad that they quickly lead to defeat. The better you are at chess, the more clearly you see your options, and the fewer moves there actually are available. The better the player, the more predictable the moves. The grandmaster plays with absolute predictable precision—until that one brilliant, unexpected stroke."

If you put yourself in their shoes and think like a gangster (bankster) it will be very easy to anticipate their next move. And the final result is as the usual chess endgame: there should be only one king left standing on the board.

What we don't know (and it is very hard to guess) is what exactly is going to be that brilliant unexpected stroke.

[FRED]

Re: The great patriotic repatriation ....

The reason there is a bond market in Japan is the Japanese postal pension scheme.

The Japanese postal institution also holds a gigantic amount of Japanese savings as its other function. What else would this organization invest in given its 'public/private'-like status?

Goods are not Japan's only major export, nor are goods America's only major import.

How much does anyone want to bet that this arrangement will remain constant through a global economic and political crisis?

[GRG55]

Re: The great patriotic repatriation ....

Goods are not Japan's only major export, nor are goods America's only major import...

...How much does anyone want to bet that this arrangement will remain constant through a global economic and political crisis?

All the interest income I received in the past year on my Yen holding...:p

[gwynedd1]

Re: The great patriotic repatriation ....

Exactly. The quantitative easing and the lost decade was done only to avoid looses for the local smart money. And the whole country suffers.


sishya there is enough doom all over. People are loosing their jobs, their houses, even their minds. What I'm trying to say is that when the situation was going down the drain in US we were lied everything is OK and there is no recession.

When deflation (or disinflation according to other views) hit hard after the fall of Lehman a lot of investors were scared into building inflation hedges in stock.

Now when there are elements of recovery we are told the situation is hopeless, the world will end soon and we all going to die or revert to a Somalia state.

The whole idea is too keep the sheeple majority always in the dark, and always distracted by the wrong idea of threat. This is how financial oligarchs are always making money.


I think it's a little bit of both. And it's not only about China. There are also Russian oligarchs who took loans from western banks and now are deleveraging, Sheiks from Dubai .... even Mugabe wanted to buy a $10 mil mansion in Switzerland but he had to make it with a $4.5 mil house in HK.


That is very well possible, although I don't know if it will happen.

I believe though the end game is a dollar depreciation of about 20-30% with respect to major currencies, the complete breaking of the dollar pegs (starting with the obscenely mercantilistic Chinese peg and ending with the oversized ego Ruble peg), followed by a domino effect of depressions and recession in ROW that would transform the Fed or a global institution acting as proxy for the Fed in the ultimate global net lender. When the dollar seignorage is extended at the global level ... well, ... the result is obvious.

Things are actually not that complicated, and behind the clouds of chaff there is a simple truth: the financial interests controlling the Fed (the really smart money) have a very limited set of options available in order to conserve their wealth, extend their control and accumulate more money and power. There is a great Friedman quote in his latest book:



If you put yourself in their shoes and think like a gangster (bankster) it will be very easy to anticipate their next move. And the final result is as the usual chess endgame: there should be only one king left standing on the board.

What we don't know (and it is very hard to guess) is what exactly is going to be that brilliant unexpected stroke.

Greetings dollar-pound-star,


It appears their latest move was to have the dollar declared dead and send everyone to inflation hedges. Whoops.

[metalman]

Re: The great patriotic repatriation ....

Greetings dollar-pound-star,


It appears their latest move was to have the dollar declared dead and send everyone to inflation hedges. Whoops.

peter schiff works for 'them'.

look! there he is in saudi arabia telling them all how much the usa sucks!