Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

[gobears]

Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

The doomer theme can detract from more interesting debate. I agree that the likelihood in the USA of starvation, massive revolution, etc... is very low. At a minimum, our institutions ought to be able to install law & order, and feed the people.

However, there probably will be some rioting, potentially massive protests, outrage, and political upheaval. I think it would be constructive to discuss how the political landscape will be shaped, rather than the outcome of its destruction.

I think EJ's recent analogy of everyone going into the water together is a good one. The most likely outcome will be a diffusion of wealth and consequent sharing of misery, as the nation struggles to find its way again.

Is it possible people have been taken aback at EJ's increasingly dark picture and are misreading it a bit too far to the negative side? I guess, EJ was hoping for a smoother transition, and now he thinks it will be much rougher, albeit not a doomsday scenario as some would have it.

[ASH]

Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

Again - this is not intended to "poke fun" at anyone. Just a sober question: is the stuff all you guys are speculating about a high probability event? In my opinion it is not.

i agree. a review of 'are you a doomer' is in order for many.

No offense taken, Lukester. The way I see it, raja picked up on EJ's phrasing and we went from there. I like speculating and imagining -- if you give me a premise involving fairy dust, I'll enjoy expounding upon the implications of fairy dust without worrying too hard about the starting point. There is a categorical distinction between the ideas I speculate about, and the ideas I actually put into execution.

That said, are you posting your comment to the correct thread? I thought the discussion following raja's post was fairly non-doomer -- more about how to avoid sharing our financial "life preservers". Perhaps you and Metalman are actually thinking of the amusing posts to 2009 will make people yearn for 2008 in which a few of us talk about Mad Max.

To answer your question -- right now, the possibility that my daughter will grow up herding goats for a living seems remote to me.

[ASH]

Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

The most likely outcome will be a diffusion of wealth and consequent sharing of misery, as the nation struggles to find its way again.

Exactly. And that is why a discussion of which forms of wealth are less vulnerable to "sharing" has merit in this thread.

[santafe2]

Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

This is not intended as a polemical question. It is a serious question. I see after this thread got started that it sort of built on it's own premises, and later posters became imbued with the certainty that this was a likely outcome, posting further elaborations on the survivalist theme posited at the beginning. It becomes an evolution almost similar to a self fulfilling prophecy. Why not go back to square one and ask - are we reallly sure this sort of societal breakdown is a plausible scenario? To me it all begins to sound vaguely surreal and completely "over the top". This country is the breadbasket of the world. Providing food at very least, for it's own citizens, even on an emergency-decreed socialization of the entire midwest's farming for an interim period of five years, is more viable a proposition than that might be for any other country in the world. To posit famine and guns in the streets about things like food in America appears to this reader to verge on the ludicrous. The remainder is a financial consideration - lots of people out of work, and a government ever more painted into a corner to print the currency to paper over their predicament. Yes, it's inflation and depression maybe, but all this talk of rifles, perimiters, sharpshooters, sharecropping opportunities on land etc. strikes me as the result of a long thread full of overheated speculation. A first time browser onto this site reading this stuff would conclude iTuliper's are a little bit over the edge.

Again - this is not intended to "poke fun" at anyone. Just a sober question: is the stuff all you guys are speculating about a high probability event? In my opinion it is not.

Agree with some of what you say even when you release the hounds of inflated rhetoric, in your classic - HEY EVERYBODY! - watch Lukester light a straw-man on fire! Somehow over the last year or so, I've learned to enjoy it. It may be partly due to your new found, Lukester in under 500 words, brevity.

But being prepared for an uncertain future, is not doomerism. As you'll know from reading my posts, I may be prepared for a downside but I'm also highly leveraged with regard to my business, for an upside. I like options Luke and so far, planning for a really bad, longer term economic hiccup has proved to be a reasonable investment while spending my work day building a business has worked out well.

That said, I kind of like your sharecropping idea...can we sing spirituals while building mud huts and minding the maize?

[Guest]

Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

Agree with some of what you say even when you release the hounds of inflated rhetoric. ... Somehow over the last year or so, I've learned to enjoy it.

I'll give thanks for that much of a blessing then Santafe2. At least the point was taken. Your solar business will likely soar in the next five years. And your doomsday plans will be thankfully shucked off as a somewhat dated idea as you find your business has moved a lot further ahead under the Obama / "energy independence" mandate than you expected in your wildest dreams. My tealeaf reading suggests that we are about to witness some real pyrotechnics in the equity markets for precisely this segment of the market. EJ sees this as not happening until three, four, five years from now. I think he's going to be surprised to see it occur much sooner.

How do you like that prognosis, for a bit of "inflated rhetoric"? A little more palatable perhaps?

[santafe2]

Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

My tealeaf reading suggests that we are about to witness some real pyrotechnics in the equity markets for precisely this segment of the market. EJ sees this as not happening until three, four, five years from now. I think he's going to be surprised to see it occur much sooner.

How do you like that prognosis, for a bit of "inflated rhetoric"? A little more palatable perhaps?

Mild rhetoric but, maybe inflated idea of where renewable investments will go over the next couple of years. There should be a few winners but the only sure thing I see is working in the industry as it continues to grow. At this point there is still a large overhang of product waiting for the Obama renewable freight train to come by and off load it. If that happens it may be a fun ride. Once I have a handle on what's available and who it will assist, I'll put a post together.

[vinoveri]

Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

right now, the possibility that my daughter will grow up herding goats for a living seems remote to me.

With respect to my 4 children, I agree, they won't be forced into nomadic livestock pursuits. What more concerns me is that they'll be "forced" into something else, simply because of the direction our society seems to be taking ... "to each according to his needs and from each according to his abilities" (if you'll accept the hyperbolee).

living off the land may not be such a bad life if you've got the mindset.

[Guest]

Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

Appreciate the "laid back" response guy.

If I met you I'd probably never suspect you've practiced taking out targets at 500 yards. Me, I'm a sitting duck. No experience with firearms or farming. But I've got a good radar for when to get the hell out of dodge. If it comes to that I'll solve the entire problem by scooting the hell out of here and living on pennies a day on some beautiful beach. Do a "Paul Theroux" and clear the f**k out of here. That's actually really easy to do. There are tons of places in the world where you can live on $5000 - $6000 a year.

No offense taken, Lukester. The way I see it, raja picked up on EJ's phrasing and we went from there. I like speculating and imagining -- if you give me a premise involving fairy dust, I'll enjoy expounding upon the implications of fairy dust without worrying too hard about the starting point. There is a categorical distinction between the ideas I speculate about, and the ideas I actually put into execution.

That said, are you posting your comment to the correct thread? I thought the discussion following raja's post was fairly non-doomer -- more about how to avoid sharing our financial "life preservers". Perhaps you and Metalman are actually thinking of the amusing posts to 2009 will make people yearn for 2008 in which a few of us talk about Mad Max.

To answer your question -- right now, the possibility that my daughter will grow up herding goats for a living seems remote to me.

[ASH]

Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

If I met you I'd probably never suspect you've practiced taking out targets at 500 yards. Me, I'm a sitting duck. No experience with firearms or farming.

I think the more experience with firearms or farming that one has, the less romantic notions one entertains about them. ;-) My take-away from the rifle range at Camp Pendleton was that, training notwithstanding, I or anyone will be a sitting duck if someone is coming for me, and I don't know about it. Although I never got called up, the MOUT exercises I participated in one summer at March AFB were seriously disheartening, given the sheer number of times we all died. Heck -- my experience as a child helping my parents garden (not farm) their rural acreage impressed upon me how hard it would be to support a family by farming, in the event that one had to. So, although I have definite ideas about what would give me the best shot of surviving the dissolution of society, I don't have high expectations of success. Thank goodness the likelihood of a complete collapse is so low.

[Yaowarat]

Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

Kanjorski is a 1st rate congressional crook. Really, a crook. He'll do anything for a buck... er uh our bucks.


Kanjorski Earmarks Funds for Family Profit



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UdYDgr8XUA

[labasta]

Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

The reason this is not done is because this would cut out the banks that wish us to finance everything we own instead of have any actual equity. That new money directly from the treasury would be interest free.

Weird. I thought of the same thing the other day. I was thinking that the best option would be for the government to issue debt interest free (especially to businesses to ease cashflow). Maybe money could be earned by the government by swapping equity for cash? Or maybe not.

Then I had a reality check and realised that that was only going to happen if all the bankers and central bankers died at once. They won't allow any system to bypass them even if the whole world starved.

[Starving Steve]

Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

There is only one way through this mess, it is by tightening the belt, strapping down everything of any value, paying off the debts, even by as little as a few dollars a week if necessary and boldly creating a decisive plan to move forward as soon as one can find the capital base required to make any move financially sound. It takes time, and commitment. Those of us that will survive will have the world at our feet.

The disease in the world is too much debt, too much especially in America. And the solution simply can not be to pile more debt on top of the old debt. The mis-reading of the problem by Bernanke and the other central bankers is incredible.

Bernanke has to go. Why the Obama Administration kept this Bush Administration pick for the Federal Reserve Bank is mind-boggling to me.

Every time either Bernanke or Geitner, (the U.S. Treasurer) speak, the stock markets drop, and rightfully so. There is no solution being offered except for more of the same mistakes, more debt on top of old debt, and more bail-outs for more thieves.

And Geitner's plan for stimulus is called, "The Son of Paulson", and rightfully so. Why Obama kept on with the Paulson plan for stimulus is mind-boggling.

But Obama sure can speak well; unfortunately, the world markets need much more than rhetoric from the bully-pulpit in Washington. They need a complete new approach and transparency. Otherwise, we may be in the early days of a run on the dollar.

On top of all this crap, the taxpayers in the U.S. now expect a tax cut. Why the Democrats in Washington chose to stay with any type of supply-side economics is incredible and doesn't fit with the problem. Again, they don't understand the problem in Congress because Bernanke, their Bush hold-over at the Fed doesn't understand the problem.

This situation is more than sad; it is dangerous.

[ASH]

Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

Bernanke has to go. Why the Obama Administration kept this Bush Administration pick for the Federal Reserve Bank is mind-boggling to me.

My understanding is that the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve isn't technically a cabinet position that can be changed immediately when a new administration takes office. I believe Bernanke's 4 years are up in 2010.

[ltullos]

Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

MANY points raised in this thread which have made it well worth my time to read, but I would like to go back to Kanjorski's statements

"I was there when the secretary, and the chairman of the Federal Reserve (Ben Bernanke) came those days and talked with members of Congress about what was going on. It was about Sept. 15. " Here's the facts and we don't even talk about these things. On Thursday at about 11 in the morning, the Federal Reserve noticed a tremendous drawdown of money market accounts in the United States to the tune of $550B was being drawn out in in an hour or two " The treasury opened up its window to help. They pumped $105 billion in the system and quickly realized that they could not stem the tide; we are having an electric run on the banks. They decided to close the operation, close down the money accounts and announce a guarantee of $250,000 per account so there wouldn't be further panic out there. That's what actually happened. If they had not done that, their estimation was that by 2 that afternoon, $5.5 trillion would have been drawn out of the money market system of the United States, would have collapsed the entire economy of the United States, and within 24 hours the world economy would have collapsed. Now we talked at that time about what would happen if that happened. It would have been the end of our economic system and our political system as we know it."


Even if I take at face value the assertion withdrawal of "$550B in an hour or two" is unprecedented, to extrapolate this the "$5.5T (10X) by 2 that afternoon" does not seem credible for the simple reason that all that money has to go somewhere else. Furthermore, the obvious question is who was doing all the withdrawing? This cannot be a run on the bank where a mass of investors is panicking! What I really wonder is if there was anyone present in that meeting that had the common sense to really challenge what they were being told. It's not like they haven't been sold a false story with less compelling evidence.

[jtabeb]

Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

Weird. I thought of the same thing the other day. I was thinking that the best option would be for the government to issue debt interest free (especially to businesses to ease cashflow). Maybe money could be earned by the government by swapping equity for cash? Or maybe not.

Then I had a reality check and realised that that was only going to happen if all the bankers and central bankers died at once. They won't allow any system to bypass them even if the whole world starved.

That's the WHOLE DAMN PROBLEM, these assholes are incentivized to NOT FIX THE PROBLEM even though as the two of you point out, a workable solution that would actually SOLVE the problem IS available for use.

That is how fucked up we are right now. SICK!! DISGUSTING!!! Makes me want to VOMIT!!!!

But there you have it. No solution because there is too much money to be made BY NOT SOLVING THE PROBLEM.

SERIOUSLY FUCKED UP!