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  • Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

    Fearmongering?








  • #2
    Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

    "[I]f you don't have a banking system, you don't have an economy."

    It is important that we must pay attention and decipher the doublespeak my fellow iTulipers! What Rep. Kanjorski meant to say was: “Without a banking system, there is no way to fleece the masses!”

    In other words, the banking system is nothing but an efficient system to extract wealth (labor) from the many to the benefit of the few.

    If there was no banking system in place, wealth could not be concentrated in the apex of few individuals. Wealth would be diffused into many little pools of talented individuals.

    Of course, I doubt that Rep. Kanjorski meant that without a banking system people would cease to trade.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

      I don't think it is intentional fearmongering on his part. I assume that is about how it played out - that he is repeating the information he was told. Now, I doubt well ever know how it would have played out without the FDIC change.

      The paradox here is in the feedback loop. The public is angry because they lack informtion and education about what is going on. If everyone was spontaneously informed and acted in their own self interest, would the system collapse?

      I don't think the people making the calls know. Or they don't believe the public knowledge can be grown in a productive way. Or they don't believe the public needs to be dealt with yet, as that would just make the process take longer. In any case, as a result the public gets most of its understanding through pundits with agendas. This adds more misinformation and anger into the system, pushing closer to an explosion.

      Trying to inform the public at this stage and use the feedback to drive the process could be like passing out ballots for to decide action during the Cuban missile crisis.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

        As an aside, I've talked with various very educated and street smart people - successful entrepreneurs, upper middle class tech workers, educators - and heard their views over the last few weeks. Those who have been studying the situation have views somewhat in line with itulip.

        Those who haven't invested personal time getting educated generally believe the problem is a crisis of confidence among American spenders. They believe that if the government stopped telling us what was going on and if the newspapers stopped writing about it, the problem would resolve itself as people returned to regular spending patterns.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

          Originally posted by BrianL View Post
          As an aside, I've talked with various very educated and street smart people - successful entrepreneurs, upper middle class tech workers, educators - and heard their views over the last few weeks. Those who have been studying the situation have views somewhat in line with itulip.

          Those who haven't invested personal time getting educated generally believe the problem is a crisis of confidence among American spenders. They believe that if the government stopped telling us what was going on and if the newspapers stopped writing about it, the problem would resolve itself as people returned to regular spending patterns.
          iTulip on the FIRE-ing line


          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

            Originally posted by BrianL View Post
            Those who haven't invested personal time getting educated generally believe the problem is a crisis of confidence among American spenders. They believe that if the government stopped telling us what was going on and if the newspapers stopped writing about it, the problem would resolve itself as people returned to regular spending patterns.
            This is exactly what I heard from my mother this past weekend when she asked me "why does Obama keep spreading fear?". She is, to put it delicately, one of the less-learned people that watch MSM and nothing else. I've learned to just say, "yeah, I don't know."

            What's going on now and what is to come is difficult enough for me to understand (especially if there was no iTulip) so how can you teach the masses the intricacies of this meltdown?

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

              This is not fear mongering. It is, unfortunately, the truth.

              During that week when Paulson and Bernanke in their ham handed way proposed the emergency bailout to Congress, before I wrote No Time for Utopian Anti-Interventionism, I talked to Dr. Peter Warburton (see Inside the Whirlpool: Interview with Dr. Peter Warburton), Martin Mayer and other experts. The conclusion: the patent, the US banking system, had gone into cardiac arrest and died while Congress bickered for two weeks about whether or how to apply a defibrillator.

              It has never recovered.

              The global economy has been collapsing ever since.

              Now we watch Congress bicker about lame acts of fiscal stimulus to try to revive demand. But the fact is it's too late to do much but watch in horror.

              A smoother transition from the FIRE Economy to a New Economy could have been managed, but for one of the more dysfunctional aspects of what I call the Inexorable Logic of the US Political Economy: the political system and the financial system have an impedance mismatch; one turns slowly and the other very, very quickly.

              So, unfortunately, we shall have a Great Depression II following the collapse of FIRE Economy V2.0 worse than the Great Depression I that followed the collapse of FIRE Economy V1.0 in the 1930s. I'd hoped for better, but here we are.

              We may not have liked the old government and private credit-based money system any more than anyone else -- believed it was corrupt and produced gross inequalities and risks -- but it was the system we were using.

              The Titanic is an excellent metaphor, with a twist.

              Some of the passengers complained that the propulsion system was poorly conceived and should be replaced. Some, in fact, asserted it should be destroyed.

              What these passengers forget is that they, too, are passengers on the same boat with everyone else, and that if the system crashed they are doing down with everyone else. In fact, for anyone with any special flotation devices I guarantee that before this is over you will be sharing them with the survivors whether you like it or not. This is another aspect of the Inexorable Logic of the US Political Economy that I have warned about for years.

              I don't take any pleasure in communicating this vision of the future, but after 10 years of running this site, I see no reason why, if a logical theory has predicted a sequence of events A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K and L, over those 10 years that events M and N will not follow the same chain of logic over the next few.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

                Originally posted by EJ
                The Titanic is an excellent metaphor, with a twist.

                Some of the passengers complained that the propulsion system was poorly conceived and should be replaced. Some, in fact, asserted it should be destroyed.

                What these passengers forget is that they, too, are passengers on the same boat with everyone else, and that if the system crashed they are doing down with everyone else. In fact, for anyone with any special flotation devices I guarantee that before this is over you will be sharing them with the survivors whether you like it or not. This is another aspect of the Inexorable Logic of the US Political Economy that I have warned about for years.

                I don't take any pleasure in communicating this vision of the future, but after 10 years of running this site, I see no reason why, if a logical theory has predicted a sequence of events A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K and L, over those 10 years that events M and N will not follow the same chain of logic over the next few.
                I only fear for my grandchildren, but then, they are being given the tools to make the best of it. Such is Life.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

                  Taken at face value, the Representative "Clueless" Kanjorski's comments are as scary as anything I've heard thus far.

                  Is he trying to stampede the Sheeple? I don't think so. Neither he nor the other pols seem to have any idea what to do. "Get input from her [the caller] – maybe she has a better idea." Har-har, what farce. If he had said this before we entered the current dire economic period, a gag writer could have used it for a Jay Leno standup routine or in a political comedy skit.

                  Kanjorski's summary of the current situation is "Somebody threw us in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean without a life raft and we're trying to determine which is the closest shore and whether there's any chance in the world to swim that far. We don't know! His summary is at once disingenuous, desperate, and dangerous. There was no somebody. As a senior member of the Financial Services Committee and Chairman of the Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets, Insurance and Government Sponsored Enterprises, he has a certain amount of responsibility for our "splashdown." In effect he has admitted that he and all of the other King's Men have no idea how to put Humpty Dumpty back together again. That betrays his desperation and at the same time further undermines the confidence of Americans and others around the world.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

                    Originally posted by Sapiens View Post
                    "[i]“Without a banking system, there is no way to fleece the masses!”

                    In other words, the banking system is nothing but an efficient system to extract wealth (labor) from the many to the benefit of the few.

                    If there was no banking system in place, wealth could not be concentrated in the apex of few individuals. Wealth would be diffused into many little pools of talented individuals.

                    Of course, I doubt that Rep. Kanjorski meant that without a banking system people would cease to trade.
                    And who do they send to the rescue, hedge fund sharks making more loans causing future asset liquidation.
                    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1233...googlenews_wsj
                  • FEBRUARY 7, 2009 U.S. Weighs Fed Program to Loosen Lending

                    Hoping to jump-start the financial system, the Obama administration is considering turning to a new program run by the Federal Reserve that has been a challenge to launch and depends heavily on hedge funds.
                    The Term Asset-backed Securities Loan Facility, or TALF, was announced in November after investors stopped buying securities backed by consumer debt. Under the $200 billion program, the Fed will make loans to almost any U.S. firm that is willing to use the government financing to buy securities tied to credit-card, small-business, student and auto loans.
                    In essence, the government, which doesn't want to buy these securities itself, is lending money to professional investors so they can buy them. In some cases, the government itself is guaranteeing payment on the loans that back these securities.
                    The Fed on Friday announced terms of the loans it will make available to investors. As the Fed moves toward launching the program this month, Mr. Obama's economic team is exploring ways to expand it to help its financial-rescue efforts. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is expected to announce his financial-rescue efforts in a speech Monday.
                    Some hedge funds, which often use borrowed money to boost returns, are lining up to get in on the Fed program, seeing a chance to make high double-digit-percentage returns with little downside using low-cost loans made on easy terms. Some officials inside the Fed are nervous about relying on unregulated hedge funds. But they see it as a trade-off in order to get capital to consumers.
                    "This is exactly what the financial system needs," said Andrew Feldstein, chief executive of Blue Mountain Capital Management LLC, a multibillion hedge fund that is gearing up to participate in the Fed program. The program, he said, "is like sending an ambulance through a traffic jam."
                    Officials have spent weeks trying to hash out details of how to make loans to private investors and how to safeguard the program. Fed lending, even its emergency programs, typically runs through banks. To get this program going, the Fed has had to consider questions it hasn't dealt with before, such as whether it should do business with offshore accounts of a U.S. hedge fund, which it has found a way to do.
                    Because the Fed is so eager to attract participants, it has limited restrictions on which firms can participate.
                    Broader philosophical issues could arise if the program is expanded. The White House has promised more transparency in how its funds are used. But lending to hedge funds may be problematic because their operations are opaque. Moreover, the program depends on many of the practices that helped to fell Wall Street firms in the first place, such as leverage, structured-debt investments and a dependence on credit ratings.
                    Depending on the different types of collateral, investors will get roughly $100 of lending for every $5 to $16 of cash they put up to invest. The rate investors will have to pay will be set at one percentage point over interest rates based on London interbank offered rates.
                    The loans the Fed makes to investors are nonrecourse, meaning investors can't lose any more than the money they put upfront on the security. If a hedge fund defaults to the Fed, its collateral is the securities themselves. There also are no margin calls, meaning the Fed can't demand additional payments of cash from borrowers if the underlying securities fall in value.
                    Investors see these as important inducements to the program. But a Treasury Department inspector general warned that the program was vulnerable to fraud by the private sector.
                    A Fed spokeswoman said the central bank is working closely with the Treasury to establish a strong compliance program for TALF.
                    The activities of hedge funds are another potential issue. Some investors have privately expressed worries that hedge funds could game the system to use cheap Fed financing to fund other trading positions that run counter to U.S. goals. A firm might, for instance, buy debt backed by car loans with Fed financing and use the cash flows from the investment to fund short positions on auto makers that pay off if they struggle.
                    Some of the largest names in the hedge-fund world have showed initial interest in the Fed-lending program.
                    Among funds that bankers and investors have spoken to about the TALF are Magnetar Capital LLC, a multibillion-dollar Evanston, Ill., fund, which made bets during the housing boom that paid off when mortgage defaults rose. Magnetar also helped to fuel issuance of complex debt instruments known as collateralized debt obligations. Magnetar said it isn't in a position to make a decision given the information available about the program.
                    Bankers and investors said they have spoken to several funds that may be intrigued by the program, including Citadel Investment Group LLC, and D.E. Shaw & Co., among many others. D.E. Shaw declined to comment.
                    Traditional money managers, including Pacific Investment Management Co., BlackRock Inc. and Prudential Financial Inc. also have been gearing up for the program. BlackRock said it is interested in the program. Pimco didn't respond to a request for comment.
                    Another concern is whether credit ratings, which the Fed will depend upon to make decisions about what investments to support, are reliable. Credit-ratings firms have come under fire for missing warning signs on various debt instruments before the crisis hit.
                    "The rating agencies have lost a tremendous amount of credibility," said Jonathan Lieberman, of Angelo Gordon & Co., a distressed-debt fund that is considering whether to participate. He said his firm doesn't rely on credit ratings.

                  Comment


                  • #11
                    Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

                    Originally posted by EJ View Post
                    What these passengers forget is that they, too, are passengers on the same boat with everyone else, and that if the system crashed they are doing down with everyone else. In fact, for anyone with any special flotation devices I guarantee that before this is over you will be sharing them with the survivors whether you like it or not. This is another aspect of the Inexorable Logic of the US Political Economy that I have warned about for years.
                    EJ,

                    Could you elaborate on this point further?

                    Are you referring to inflation that will severely erode savings? Or other "sharing"?

                    Thanks . . . .
                    raja
                    Boycott Big Banks • Vote Out Incumbents

                    Comment


                    • #12
                      Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

                      Originally posted by raja View Post
                      EJ,

                      Could you elaborate on this point further?

                      Are you referring to inflation that will severely erode savings? Or other "sharing"?

                      Thanks . . . .
                      Think back two years ago. Think of a single event that has occurred since the start of 2007 that would not, if forecast in 2006, be seen as the ravings of a doomer lunatic:

                      - Collapse of US investment banking industry between 2007 and 2008
                      - Nationalization of Fannie and Freddie in 2008
                      - Fed borrowing reaching $690 billion at the end of 2008
                      - Economic output in Japan collapsing by 30% in five months at the end of 2008
                      - US unemployment rising by 600,000 in Dec. 2008

                      I'll answer your question with a question. If the US government cannot borrow the money in the credit markets that it needs to stop the collapse of the US economy, where are is the government going to get it?

                      Comment


                      • #13
                        Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

                        Originally posted by EJ View Post
                        This is not fear mongering. It is, unfortunately, the truth.

                        During that week when Paulson and Bernanke in their ham handed way proposed the emergency bailout to Congress, before I wrote No Time for Utopian Anti-Interventionism, I talked to Dr. Peter Warburton (see Inside the Whirlpool: Interview with Dr. Peter Warburton), Martin Mayer and other experts. The conclusion: the patent, the US banking system, had gone into cardiac arrest and died while Congress bickered for two weeks about whether or how to apply a defibrillator.

                        It has never recovered.

                        The global economy has been collapsing ever since.

                        Now we watch Congress bicker about lame acts of fiscal stimulus to try to revive demand. But the fact is it's too late to do much but watch in horror.

                        A smoother transition from the FIRE Economy to a New Economy could have been managed, but for one of the more dysfunctional aspects of what I call the Inexorable Logic of the US Political Economy: the political system and the financial system have an impedance mismatch; one turns slowly and the other very, very quickly.

                        So, unfortunately, we shall have a Great Depression II following the collapse of FIRE Economy V2.0 worse than the Great Depression I that followed the collapse of FIRE Economy V1.0 in the 1930s. I'd hoped for better, but here we are.

                        We may not have liked the old government and private credit-based money system any more than anyone else -- believed it was corrupt and produced gross inequalities and risks -- but it was the system we were using.

                        The Titanic is an excellent metaphor, with a twist.

                        Some of the passengers complained that the propulsion system was poorly conceived and should be replaced. Some, in fact, asserted it should be destroyed.

                        What these passengers forget is that they, too, are passengers on the same boat with everyone else, and that if the system crashed they are doing down with everyone else. In fact, for anyone with any special flotation devices I guarantee that before this is over you will be sharing them with the survivors whether you like it or not. This is another aspect of the Inexorable Logic of the US Political Economy that I have warned about for years.

                        I don't take any pleasure in communicating this vision of the future, but after 10 years of running this site, I see no reason why, if a logical theory has predicted a sequence of events A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K and L, over those 10 years that events M and N will not follow the same chain of logic over the next few.
                        Certainly not intending to appear cheeky EJ, but does this not materially alter the premise of your book?

                        In other words, if a comparatively smooth transition to the New Economy is no longer feasible, then it seems an increasingly chaotic, disruptive [and therefore less predictable] outcome is in store. Much more difficult to not only convince the disbelieving masses what is to transpire, but to map out and build wide support for a comprehensive, coherent and rational plan for the future.

                        Comment


                        • #14
                          Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

                          Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                          Certainly not intending to appear cheeky EJ, but does this not materially alter the premise of your book?

                          In other words, if a comparatively smooth transition to the New Economy is no longer feasible, then it seems an increasingly chaotic, disruptive [and therefore less predictable] outcome is in store. Much more difficult to not only convince the disbelieving masses what is to transpire, but to map out and build wide support for a comprehensive, coherent and rational plan for the future.
                          The way I cope with that in the book is as I have been thinking about it since 2005:
                          “What I want to make sure I get across here, in case it's not obvious, is that I'm fairly certain that an unseemly economic turn of events is more likely to happen than not, probably in the next three years, and it's going to happen here, in the U.S. To us. To you and me. While it's likely to be worse than most of us are prepared for—that is, it will not be your average recession—it will not be the end of the world either, although there may be times when things look that way. It will certainly be the end of living high off the hog on other people's savings, and it will represent a transformation that we must go through to get to a different place.” - Eric janszen, AlwaysOn Network, December 29, 2005
                          A transition, as expected. But it didn't have to go like this. Or maybe it did.
                          Last edited by EJ; February 08, 2009, 03:10 PM.

                          Comment


                          • #15
                            Re: Collapse of the Economy in 24 hours. . .

                            Originally posted by EJ View Post
                            I'll answer your question with a question. If the US government cannot borrow the money in the credit markets that it needs to stop the collapse of the US economy, where are is the government going to get it?

                            1. Printing money with no apparent plan.
                            2. Confiscating gold seems impractical, mostly because gold in public eye is a confusing issue today. But perhaps not so, because everyone knows gold is value.
                            3. Covert causing of black-swan societal event which justifies suspension of democracy, this time without preamble and with extreme prejudice.
                            4. War dangerously close to Sino-Russian interests. Playing with much larger fire just for political purposes.
                            5. Give up and let the current carry us. This has happened so many times in history, but people like to believe there is always a plan with a plan within a plan. Thousand years of barbaric fragmentation ensues, the opposite of globalization.
                            6. Emergence of third party inside force. New political force erodes bipartisan system and leads country towards USA roots of making-sense in business and culture.
                            7. Large bridge-to-nowhere works that lead to formation of de-facto and then de-jure army. This army swallows the whole society probably towards suppression of freedoms.
                            8. Global centralization of monetary, financial and banking system. All countries experience what US does and even worse. US takes lead and seizes the day.
                            9. Attempt of global centralization as in 8) but with large dissenters, such as Russia or Brazil. This leads to imbalance in access to cheap natural resources and a reason to start a suicidal war is found expediently, even if population literally gets decimated. Stakes are too high.
                            10. TV, media step up brain washing. People accept the hardships because the images of fear & doom domiciles most of them. 1984 on either local or global scale.

                            Comment

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