U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Jump to 26-Year High

[Slimprofits]

Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans filing first- time claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly jumped last week to a 26-year high, signaling a deepening deterioration in the labor market.

Initial jobless claims increased by 35,000 to 626,000 in the week ended Jan. 31, the highest level since October 1982, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The total number of people collecting benefits jumped to a record 4.788 million a week earlier, today’s report showed.

Economists project the government will report tomorrow that the unemployment rate rose to 7.5 percent in January, the most in 16 years, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg survey.

[Slimprofits]

Re: U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Jump to 26-Year High

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 676,590 in the week ending Jan. 31, an increase of 56,478 from the previous week.

WEEK ENDING

Jan. 31

Jan. 24

Change

Jan. 17

Year

Initial Claims (SA)

626,000

591,000

+35,000

585,000

351,000

Initial Claims (NSA)

676,590

620,112

+56,478

763,987

[GRG55]

Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Soars by 589,000

Getting closer to that million-a-month number.

Heard the first forecast of 10% unemployment in the USA on the MSM this morning. They are catching up with iTulip a bit faster than usual...;)

U.S. Jobless Rate Soars as Payrolls Plunge by 598,000

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The unemployment rate in the U.S. climbed to the highest level since 1992 in January and payrolls tumbled as the recession showed no sign of abating.
The jobless rate rose to 7.6 percent from 7.2 percent in December, the Labor Department said today in Washington.

Payrolls fell by 598,000, the biggest monthly decline since December 1974, after dropping by 577,000 in the previous month.

The loss of jobs, at employers ranging from manufacturers like Caterpillar Inc. to retailers such as Macy’s Inc., is shattering consumer confidence and crippling spending.

President Barack Obama is likely to use the first employment report since he took office to prod lawmakers into agreeing on a compromise economic stimulus package by the end of this month.

“We’re losing jobs at an alarming pace and bracing for more weakness,” Scott Anderson, senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis, said before the report. “The private sector is flat on its back at this point. The government needs to step in with a stimulus, the sooner the better.”...

...With a revised decline of 597,000 jobs in November, revisions subtracted 66,000 workers from previously reported payroll figures for the last two months of 2008. The U.S. economy has now lost a total of 3.57 million jobs since the recession started in December 2007, the biggest employment slump of any economic contraction in the postwar period...

[rnjboy]

Re: U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Jump to 26-Year High

does anyone know the real unemployment rate using straight, non-adjusted numbers? last i heard it was around 13.5%

[Slimprofits]

Re: U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Jump to 26-Year High

rnjboy, this what you looking for?

[rnjboy]

Re: U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Jump to 26-Year High

ya, ya. the u-6 is the number i was seeking. i am unaware of the blue line (sgs) number. can you educate me? also do these charts reflect the latest numbers, or are they to come shortly?

[zoog]

Re: U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Jump to 26-Year High

ya, ya. the u-6 is the number i was seeking. i am unaware of the blue line (sgs) number. can you educate me? also do these charts reflect the latest numbers, or are they to come shortly?

From shadowstats:

The SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated "discouraged workers" defined away during the Clinton Administration added to the existing BLS estimates of level U-6 unemployment.

Last update has today's date so I assume (but am not certain) that this is current.

[rnjboy]

Re: U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Jump to 26-Year High

holy, moly!!. thanks!!!

[bart]

Re: U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Jump to 26-Year High

When calculating claims and taking total employment changes into account, the picture changes quite a bit:







And here's a longer term chart including U3, U6 and my reconstructed U7 which is similar to John Williams work.





Unemployment rate type definitions

• U1 Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force
• U2 Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force
• U3 Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (the 'official' unemployment rate)
• U4 Total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force
• U5 Total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers as a percent of the civilian labor force
• U6 Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force(the closest to real unemployment, and the one that should be used when comparing to other countries)
• U7 U6, plus a broader definition of discouraged workers. Dropped in 1994.
• Adj The "adjustments" that were done during the '90s Clinton adminstration that defined away part of a class of people called "discouraged workers" (as documented by John Williams)add at least another 1-2% to the U6 unemployment rate. The actual raw number of uncounted "discouraged workers" was around 1.3 million as of early 2007. This also used to be known as the U-7 measure of unemployment.

Source
Many More Are Jobless Than Are Unemployed (April 2008 article in the NY Times)
John Williams unemployment chart with seasonally adjusted numbers
The birth/death model, more BS from the BLS

1982 definitions of U-1 through U-7, and note that there were massive definition changes made in 1994 by the BLS. Our various charts are not directly comparable but are quite useful, much like any model.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some models are useful."
-- George E.P. Box (Professor Emeritus of Statistics at the University of Wisconsin)