Obama - Where's the change?

[Ghent12]

Re: Obama - Where's the change?

Starting the process of shutting down Gitmo.
Salary freezes on some white house employees.
Tightening of lobbyist rules.
No effort to hide tax problems of cabinet members with 2 out of 3 now gone.
Freeze on Last minute oil and gas lease give away by previous administration.
Appointment of George Mitchell.
Alt-E proposals in recovery act.
Recovery plan was not prewritten by lobbyists and slammed down the throat of opposition.
Executive compensation limitations for TARP recipients.
Reauthorization of Children's health program.
Opening up of Faith based initiative program.
Opening up of Presidential Archives.
Revoking presidential order 13440 which allowed the torturing of prisoners.
Moving to the restoration of habius corpus.
...

While all attention is on the economy, he's been doing a lot of other very good things.

Little substance, mostly symbolism. Even his symbolism fades when he immediately cuts corners such as the DoD deputy. It simply seems he was the best politician, and was able to straddle both sides of most issues long enough to get elected, and we have no idea what will happen when the main event occurs of his presidency--the bottoming of the crash. I have a rule that has worked for me so far: never trust people, only trust intentions. I don't even know what President Obama's intentions are...

[c1ue]

Re: Obama - Where's the change?

Starting the process of shutting down Gitmo.
Salary freezes on some white house employees.
Tightening of lobbyist rules.
No effort to hide tax problems of cabinet members with 2 out of 3 now gone.
Freeze on Last minute oil and gas lease give away by previous administration.
Appointment of George Mitchell.
Alt-E proposals in recovery act.
Recovery plan was not prewritten by lobbyists and slammed down the throat of opposition.
Executive compensation limitations for TARP recipients.
Reauthorization of Children's health program.
Opening up of Faith based initiative program.
Opening up of Presidential Archives.
Revoking presidential order 13440 which allowed the torturing of prisoners.
Moving to the restoration of habius corpus.

50 symbolic acts followed by a monstrous bailout (II) and stimulus (II)?

Thanks, I'd rather have the big problem fixed and the little problems worked on later.

I really love how Obama is saying 'pass my bill or the recession will get worse/irreversible'

Isn't that what Paulson said?

[bpr]

Re: Obama - Where's the change?

Um, "symbolic" acts or not, Obama's administration is, it seems, a failure after a mere three weeks, due to his steadfast refusal to re-value gold at $30k per ounce, despite loud cries from the policymakers at some forum I frequent.

People will misinterpret the word "change" until the cows come home, unfortunately, from their own myopic view of exactly what small piece of the puzzle needed to be changed most.

i'll put 50/50 odds at best that volcker stays long enough to get this outsider team together.

I'll give you 60/40 that Geithner or Summers is gone before Volcker (I believe Geithner will be the first to go), barring a health issue (the dude is a tall 81).

[antiserf]

Re: Obama - Where's the change?

exactly... the political hot potato is the economy... the fire economy... and he ain't touching it.

Yes, he's made some small positive moves, which amount to rearranging the deck chairs. Meanwhile, he's counting on a slew of great white sharks to save the ship.

[we_are_toast]

Re: Obama - Where's the change?

50 symbolic acts followed by a monstrous bailout (II) and stimulus (II)?

Thanks, I'd rather have the big problem fixed and the little problems worked on later.

I really love how Obama is saying 'pass my bill or the recession will get worse/irreversible'

Isn't that what Paulson said?

I'm not exactly sure why some consider the restoration of habius corpus ( a fundamental principle of modern democracy for over 700 years) as a trivial event.
Or the banning of torture, something the international community considers a war crime, is a symbolic act.

But other than that, do you think if the recovery bill is not passed and we do nothing, the recession will get better?

[metalman]

Re: Obama - Where's the change?

Um, "symbolic" acts or not, Obama's administration is, it seems, a failure after a mere three weeks, due to his steadfast refusal to re-value gold at $30k per ounce, despite loud cries from the policymakers at some forum I frequent.

People will misinterpret the word "change" until the cows come home, unfortunately, from their own myopic view of exactly what small piece of the puzzle needed to be changed most.



I'll give you 60/40 that Geithner or Summers is gone before Volcker (I believe Geithner will be the first to go), barring a health issue (the dude is a tall 81).

what is volcker's strategy fighting with his boss in public?

[bpr]

Re: Obama - Where's the change?

what is volcker's strategy fighting with his boss in public?

Being right.

[metalman]

Re: Obama - Where's the change?

Being right.

that won't get you far in politics. in fact, it's irrelevant.

'the only truth is power'

[Starving Steve]

Re: Obama - Where's the change?

The black swan event has become part of the daily English language because of Taleb. But, universities have kept students bamboozled and in the dark about Taleb's ideas. Taleb's ideas have seeped in because of Taleb's book and because of itulip; the latter is where I heard about the black swan event.

Students for the most part have not challenged the economics thinking in universities, so stupid ideas (like the idea that deflation is bad) have gone, for the most part, unchallenged. Sure deflation to the extreme can be bad, but falling prices for everything is generally GOOD.

In fact, students have not challenged the global warming thesis in universities. Where have students demanded the data on global warming be checked, not against climate models but against actual climate records?

Neither, have students challenged the ideas of educrats that traditional basic skills like cursive and phonics and English-only have emense value to-day in public schools. Neither have credentialed teachers been allowed to challenge the public school curriculum, at least not in California. Educrats have always claimed that they had the data, but when the data on test scores is checked, the data has been re-calibrated to read the way it reads. What do the test scores prove?

Neither, have students in planning courses challenged the orthodox ideas of professors that raising dwelling unit density in planning tends to lower land and dwelling unit costs. What student has been allowed to stand-up and ask for the data? And if that data on costs is like the test score data in education departments, maybe it has been re-calibrated too?

[pwcmba]

Re: Obama - Where's the change?

2 Items and they are unrelated (I think).

1) I'm Listening to much Pink Floyd these days - "Wish you were here" with particular emphasis on "Welcome to the machine" not sure if or why there might be a connection to what is going on in the world.

2) I am interested to solicate from the itulip world where they would move (country) if not bound by any constrant like family, job, etc.. I guess my specific interest is in social/government stability, personal freedom, property rights, etc.. Not just a quick answer like a private island.

[roxtar]

Re: Obama - Where's the change?

I noticed with intrest that he is VERY KEEN on a fleet of High MPG cars, like he is expecting something BIG to hit VERY soon?
Mike

Yeah, something BIG - as in being hell bent on starting WWIII to try and "shock the economy back to life".
I'm convinced that this guy's in way over his head.

[bpr]

Re: Obama - Where's the change?

that won't get you far in politics. in fact, it's irrelevant.

'the only truth is power'

Volcker is not a politician. He doesn't have to be popular, if he's got the President's ear and the President believes him, he's going to stick around.

His previous actions may not have been popular. They may have been downright painful. But they preceeded (one might argue led to) an impressive growth period that translated into decades of power for the Republican party and American business in general.

Geithner, on the other hand, is an easy target, a leftover from the Paulson Treasury. I believe it was politically impossible* to appoint an outsider to the post after Paulson's insane stunts. Geithner's presence on the front line from Bear Stearns to National City/PNC and everything in between made him uniquely knowledgeable of the terms of the TARP/bailout, and therefore, unquestionably qualified.

Remember, one year ago it was hard to imagine the scope of the Fed's and the Treasury's recent actions. Well, hard for someone who doesn't regularly read iTulip or Minyanville or Mish or Jesse or one of the other voices in the wilderness. We are in the minority – still – even among traders.

After 3Q2008, it's a different Treasury, with different powers and a different charter. Allowing someone from outside to come in and take the helm would have been political suicide for Obama. The market crash (which didn't happen, due to Geithner's appointment) would've been solely his fault.

I think Geithner was a brilliant choice, but not a long-term one.

If you think Congress thinks this thing (economic crisis) is going to go away, you haven't been listening. They know better than their constituents how bad it's going to get. And they're (Democrats) going to need a scapegoat before the 2010 elections, probably after the next serious leg down in the market. Geithner's expedient confirmation in the face of very damaging public disclosure of his personal financial dealings** only strenghtens what was my gut reaction: the guy is toast. All he's got going for him is his youth.

The bottom line is, we're three weeks into this presidency, and it's just too early to make a call on how Obama's running things. I believe, perhaps naively, that he's going to surround himself with enemies, arm them all with the best teams that they can muster, and then pick and choose ideas based on who has the best argument, intellectual support and track record. This is a very academic approach, which will take time. But I don't think anyone believes solving this mess is going to be quick and easy.

* I use the phrase politically impossible in the same sense that Noam Chomsky does: not that it would be unpopular with the people, but it would not sit right with the lobbyists and the monied powers that run Washington. In this sense, if anyone from outside of the Paulson Treasury were appointed, they could rightly be deemed (by the press and TPTB) unfit because they were too removed from the historic and powerful actions the Treasury undertook during the election, and we would have seen a market crash in earnest. Geithner's cred comes from investor confidence, shaky and fickle as it is.

** Two others stepped down in the face of such scrutiny. My guess is both had other skeletons in the closet they didn't want revealed.

[c1ue]

Re: Obama - Where's the change?

I'll give you 60/40 that Geithner or Summers is gone before Volcker (I believe Geithner will be the first to go), barring a health issue (the dude is a tall 81).

I don't care if Geithner or Summers are 'in' or 'out'. The game of musical chairs is a common political convenience.

The key is what is being pushed for.

Despite a supposed storm of public disapproval over Bank Bailout (II), Obama's response to date has been to change the language. But the bailout still proceeds. Oh yes, and executive pay is capped at $500K. But executive pay is already capped at $1M (existing legislation) - the additional CEO pay has been from stock option grants and benefits because the existing law makes salaries over $1M not tax deductible for corporations. I seriously doubt Obama is 'changing' that.

Similarly Stimulus (II) has been exactly as promised: Bush stimulus = $300 per tax payer. Obama stimulus is going to be $2700+ per warm body (2/3rds of $900B stimulus package is tax cuts, divided by 330M US citizens). Both paid for by increased federal deficits. Where's the change? (substitute 'change' for 'beef' in the below video)

[media][/media]

Volcker clearly does not agree and has been public about having alternatives.

I'm not exactly sure why some consider the restoration of habius corpus ( a fundamental principle of modern democracy for over 700 years) as a trivial event.
Or the banning of torture, something the international community considers a war crime, is a symbolic act.

So what do you call debt serfdom? Habeas Corpus is nice - instead of the government throwing you in jail for suspected terrorism, instead 1/3 of all Americans is chained to their under water mortgages and paying for food in depreciated dollars. Sounds good to me (not).

As for torture - I suppose our present economic condition is not considered torture. But I think Americans are suffering mightily nonetheless. Perhaps a lot of suffering parceled in small doses is better than a lot of suffering by a few targeted individuals.

But other than that, do you think if the recovery bill is not passed and we do nothing, the recession will get better?

The recession isn't going away any time soon, but BAD SPENDING PLANS will prolong it. Do I think the Obama stimulus/bailout plans as presently constituted are good or bad? Let me be explicit: they suck a$$

Obama is in their with a mandate for change. I have been putting up examples left and right on change NOT happening. But please by all means fiddle while Rome (The American economy and economic principle) burns.

[vanvaley1]

Re: Obama - Where's the change?

I watched "O-BEE-1" on Bloomberg, Bloody hell he was getting pissed!

I noticed with intrest that he is VERY KEEN on a fleet of High MPG cars, like he is expecting something BIG to hit VERY soon?
Mike

A friend on another website shared an article with me about the auto industry. Apparently there is a growing Chinese automaker, BYD, who is vertically integrated. I don't know know if that vertical integration also includes the commodity (mentioned in some posts in itulip) that both China and Bolivia have that's required for the batteries that run their hybrid and... soon to arrive in the states in 2011... all electric cars. Apparently BYD have a small station wagan, a small four door sedan, a sports car, and a small truck that they are producing in China.

What this means to the gas guzzlers about the world that have invested tons of money in factories in China doesn't bode well for them. I'm guessing here but it seems that China has only invited these foreign manufacturers in to acquire their technology, manufacturing processes, gaining knowledge into consumer preferences for various countries, evaluating management skills and then applying them to their country's needs. If these electric vehicles prove to be viable for the American market and the Chinese are willing to construct plants here...or take some of the existing ones over...the US automakers are dead meat.

China's recent interest in Volvo makes sense as Volvo had an R&D larger sedan hybrid in the works some years ago. The car was built and tested and performed well but never produced when an American company...Ford?...bought into Volvo. This might be the vehicle needed to expand the range of vehicles offered to complement BYDs smaller car choices.

Expansion and updating of a US electric grid system favored by Obama dovetails nicely into this product that we'll be seeing on these shores in a short period of time. Having the Chinese creating jobs for Americans in the US in the auto industry would also be compatible and timely for the American unemployed and cash strapped public. Plus they get rid of a lot of US dollars by buying plants, lending institutions, and all the other goodies associated with this type of endeavor. According to one source, Warren Buffet has taken a 10% share in BYD.

Mega's insight into the serious interest by Obama in economically feasible cars also falls nicely in step with Obama's promises of striving for energy independence, employing the unemployed, and expanding the electrical grid infrastructure. This could materialize sooner than we think?

[*T*]

Re: Obama - Where's the change?

2) I am interested to solicate from the itulip world where they would move (country) if not bound by any constrant like family, job, etc.. I guess my specific interest is in social/government stability, personal freedom, property rights, etc.. Not just a quick answer like a private island.

So am I. Start a new thread!