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BoA analyst Jeffrey Rosenberg: Proposed legislation in the house could collapse the CDS market

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  • BoA analyst Jeffrey Rosenberg: Proposed legislation in the house could collapse the CDS market

    By Laura Mandaro & Ronald D. Orol, MarketWatch

    "Proposed legislation to regulate credit default swaps to limit purchases of protection only to those with exposure to economic loss in the instrument being insured could have the unintended (or intended) consequence of collapsing this market," Banc of America Securities credit strategist Jeffrey Rosenberg wrote in a report.

    Starting Tuesday afternoon, the House Committee on Agriculture, led by Chairman Collin Peterson, D-Minn., plans two days of hearings in Washington, D.C. to discuss legislation that would impose severe curbs on credit derivatives. Representatives of trade groups representing farmers and gasoline-station operators and the major futures exchanges are scheduled to testify.

    Peterson's bill would make it a violation of the Commodity Exchange Act to enter into a type of credit derivative known as a "naked" credit default swap. In other words, the only buyers of those securities, which act as protection against the risk that an underlying corporate or sovereign borrower will default on its debt, would be those investors who must have "direct exposure to financial loss" on the underlying entity.

    [..]

    Peterson's new bill also would impose limits on the speculative positions traders in commodities can enter into, taking up some of the same curbs proposed by Washington last year when oil and grains prices hit record highs. Legislation aimed at financial trades of derivatives died after commodities prices nosedived in the second half of the year.

    Even if final legislation avoids killing the credit-default swaps market, Rosenberg said, the market's still due for a stronger regulatory regime.

    Analysts are anticipating regulators will institute a central clearing house for credit default swaps, similar to the clearing organizations in place for commodities futures.

    Senate securities subcommittee chairman Jack Reed, D-R.I. said in an interview that the clearing house would require equity investments from participants, though policymakers were still working out details on how much support such a clearinghouse would demand.

    Unlike the ban on naked CDS, a clearinghouse isn't raising the same hackles among industry participants.

    "The sooner a central clearing counterparty can emerge, the sooner CDS can reform its image," Brian Yelvington, senior macro strategist at CreditSights, wrote in a report Monday.

    *****

    Draft language of the Derivatives Markets Transparency and Accountability Act
    Outline of the draft language

    schedule of the House Committee on Agriculture

    Tues., February 3rd – 1:00 p.m.
    1300 Longworth House Office Building
    Full Committee on Agriculture—Public Hearing.
    RE: To review derivatives legislation.
    NOTE: Due to room renovations, seating for the public and press will be extremely limited. The hearing will be webcast live on the House Agriculture Committee website here.

    Panel I
    Mr. Tom Buis, President, National Farmers Union, Washington, D.C.
    Mr. John Damgard, President, Futures Industry Association, Washington, D.C.
    Mr. Michael Greenberger, Law School Professor, University of Maryland School of Law, Baltimore, Maryland
    Mr. Michael A. Gooch, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, GFI Group Inc., New York, New York
    Mr. Sean Cota, President, Cota & Cota Inc., on behalf of Petroleum Marketers Association of America and New England Fuel Institute, Bellow Falls, Vermont
    Mr. Terrance A. Duffy, Executive Chairman, CME Group Inc., Chicago, Illinois

    Panel II
    Mr. Daniel J. Roth, President and Chief Executive Officer, National Futures Association, Chicago, Illinois
    Mr. Tyson Slocum, Director, Public Citizen's Energy Program, Washington, D.C.
    Wed., February 4th – 10:30 a.m.
    1300 Longworth House Office Building
    Full Committee on Agriculture—Public Hearing.
    RE: To review derivatives legislation.

    Witness lists for hearings, if applicable, will be released to the public 24 hours before the hearing takes place. If you wish to listen to or watch any hearing, please take note of the hearing location and follow the link below to the Live Audio/Video Page.

  • #2
    Re: BoA analyst Jeffrey Rosenberg: Proposed legislation in the house could collapse the CDS market

    All this tells me is that the CDS market was artificially inflated - my gut feeling is - if I embrace the "Naked Short Selling Scenario" is that many markets today are artificially inflated.

    Thus the markets are much riskier than they are portrayed to be, and are thus much more prone to failure.

    Thus all the more reason that the markets be much better regulated.

    In the light of this the SECs contention that they cannot release the names and details of Naked short of the market makers -- because if they do so, then they would be exposing proprietary strategies of their members -- statrs to make sense -- In other words the SEC knows that the market is inflated, and this is how people are suckered into buying and selling securities -- because a belief is created that there are many more buyers and sellers than there actually are!

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: BoA analyst Jeffrey Rosenberg: Proposed legislation in the house could collapse the CDS market

      OK, if I own GM debt, and have a CDS to hedge my risk what do I do if I want to sell the GM CDS? find someone else to buy it, but they have to own GM debt too? Sounds like this limits the pool of buyers. Sell both the GM debt and the CDS as a package?

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: BoA analyst Jeffrey Rosenberg: Proposed legislation in the house could collapse the CDS market

        The problem is that there is one asset, your GM debt -- and there should be only one CDS contract against that specific debt -- However it appears that there were many contracts being written against that debt -- in other words if GM defaults on the debt, -- you who are the carrier of that risk gets compensated -- however so do many other people who were carrying no risk - but were only speculating based on your debt!

        At least that is my reading of what has been happening!

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: BoA analyst Jeffrey Rosenberg: Proposed legislation in the house could collapse the CDS market

          Originally posted by babbittd View Post
          "Proposed legislation to regulate credit default swaps to limit purchases of protection only to those with exposure to economic loss in the instrument being insured could have the unintended (or intended) consequence of collapsing this market," Banc of America Securities credit strategist Jeffrey Rosenberg wrote in a report.
          woo-wee. More anti-naked-shorting regulations. Bowl me over with a feather.

          the current law says you are not supposed to naked short stocks anywhere, or Silver or Gold on COMEX / CBOE

          But if allegations prove correct, there's regularly, over the last who knows how many years, been massive, illegal naked shorting of lots of stocks, and the regulators were warned and did nothing.

          If allegations prove correct, there's regularly, over the last 10 years at least, been 6 months worth of world mining supply shorted naked, and it looks like the regulator has been warned and has looked the other way the whole time.

          What will be different about YET ANOTHER set of "no naked shorts" regulations?

          Comment


          • #6
            Are you required in the US to own the underlying asset to write puts / calls ?

            Seems to me a loophole that allows you to have somewhat of a short for the life of the call.
            Last edited by Spartacus; February 03, 2009, 02:41 AM.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: BoA analyst Jeffrey Rosenberg: Proposed legislation in the house could collapse the CDS market

              At long last there is a recognition of the need for a true free market to be established for everything that is traded. Placing thousands, nay, even millions of false trades between the legitimate seller of whatever is traded and the legitimate purchaser, only serves to distort that marketplace.

              The road to stability must be paved with new rules of engagement as set out in this bill.

              For those of you unfamiliar with the debate you might like to re-read this post. http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5560

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: BoA analyst Jeffrey Rosenberg: Proposed legislation in the house could collapse the CDS market

                Originally posted by Spartacus View Post
                woo-wee. More anti-naked-shorting regulations. Bowl me over with a feather.

                the current law says you are not supposed to naked short stocks anywhere, or Silver or Gold on COMEX / CBOE

                But if allegations prove correct, there's regularly, over the last who knows how many years, been massive, illegal naked shorting of lots of stocks, and the regulators were warned and did nothing.

                If allegations prove correct, there's regularly, over the last 10 years at least, been 6 months worth of world mining supply shorted naked, and it looks like the regulator has been warned and has looked the other way the whole time.

                What will be different about YET ANOTHER set of "no naked shorts" regulations?
                Ya got to have the political support to enforce the law. If ya don't have it it won't get done. Add a caveat to the new law. If 'no naked shorting' regulations are not enforced...shoot the naked short sellers...or...the ones who are suppose to be enforcing the new law. One way or another, naked short selling will cease within a short period of time.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: BoA analyst Jeffrey Rosenberg: Proposed legislation in the house could collapse the CDS market

                  "naked" credit default swap
                  "Naked Short Selling Scenario"
                  More anti-naked-shorting regulations
                  world mining supply shorted naked
                  Sounds like the young guns on wall street were running a nudist colony!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: BoA analyst Jeffrey Rosenberg: Proposed legislation in the house could collapse the CDS market

                    The gov't can write all the new regulations it wants. Unless the SEC and CFTC decide to enforce those regulations they don't amount to a hill of beans.
                    Right now, according to some industry analysts, they are not enforcing RegSho or numerous other regulations. I've heard estimates that in order to cover all the naked shorts that exist within the various exchanges it would take about 400 Billion. It would be impossible to do so without driving the share prices through the roof and BKing all the involved brokerage houses, especially with the smaller less liquid stocks.

                    The first "tell" that this enforcement status was acceptable to the regulators was their recent rule that listed the banks that could no longer be "naked shorted", when the whole universe of stocks shouldn't have been naked shorted to begin with. Far be it for the MSM to even ask a question about this anomaly.

                    Secondly, this whole gamesmanship between brokers where they trade positions back and forth so that these naked positions are in theory covered within the RegSho timeframe of 13 days. In essence this allows the naked shorter to have an unlimited time frame to hold the stock. It's illegal but I hear fairly widespread, who knows.

                    Thirdly, they can close the tax dodge that is used which basically allows a naked shorter to never have to declare income on the shorting sale if the company goes BK because the shorter never has to cover.
                    Talk about an impetus to gang up on a small & thinly capitalized company in order to reap tax free income! How stupid or criminal are these regulators anyway?

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: BoA analyst Jeffrey Rosenberg: Proposed legislation in the house could collapse the CDS market

                      Originally posted by we_are_toast View Post
                      Quote:
                      "naked" credit default swap

                      Quote:
                      "Naked Short Selling Scenario"

                      Quote:
                      More anti-naked-shorting regulations

                      Quote:
                      world mining supply shorted naked



                      Sounds like the young guns on wall street were running a nudist colony!
                      As Buffett predicted...the tide is going out and we're now able to see who's swimming...;)

                      Comment

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