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As bad as real estate and foreclosures look, they could really be MUCH worse...

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  • As bad as real estate and foreclosures look, they could really be MUCH worse...

    http://www.truthout.org/012509A?ref=patrick.net

    RealtyTrac, the online marketer of foreclosed properties, recently discovered that it has far more foreclosed properties listed in its database, which the company compiles using courthouse records, than there are listed in the multiple listing services (MLS) maintained by real estate agents.


    RealtyTrac looked at listings in four states, California, Maryland, Florida and Wisconsin, and found that they contained only a third of the foreclosures it has in its database.
    The scope of the problem isn't clear, but it could be huge considering that RealtyTrac has a total of 1.5 million bank-owned properties on its site.
    The National Association of Realtors calculates official housing inventory statistics using data from the multiple listing services. By that measure, there were 4.2 million existing homes for sale in November, an 11.2-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 10.3-month supply in October.
    Um, if RealtyTrac's numbers translate into another 3M foreclosed homes (which presumably have to be sold someday) - that increases supply by nearly 75%.

    Or put into other words:

    110M households in the US.

    Somewhat less than 70% own a home: 75M

    Potential supply: 4.2M for sale now, 3M additional foreclosures. Builders still on pace for around 400K to 500K/year.

    75M home owners, 110M households, and 7.6M to 7.7M homes needing to be bought? And each existing homeowner buying must most likely sell their existing home?

    Anyone still think we're not in a heap of trouble?

  • #2
    Re: As bad as real estate and foreclosures look, they could really be MUCH worse...

    And this doesn't count all the people who are upside down in their mortgages and want to sell out, or those who simply want to get out before the value of their house drops even more. This inventory isn't coming down for a long time.

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    • #3
      Re: As bad as real estate and foreclosures look, they could really be MUCH worse...

      Were fucked

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      • #4
        Re: As bad as real estate and foreclosures look, they could really be MUCH worse...

        Here's a quote from a friend of mine about RealtyTrac: "I joined the website, and called 10 different banks about properties and every single bank said they had no idea what I was talking about, and a couple banks said they did not even lend in that state."

        Fake listings?

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