Schiff & Itulip seem to have converged in thesis...

[c1ue]

Re: Schiff & Itulip seem to have converged in thesis...

2003 and 2004 was WAY too early to be exiting housing.

2005 or 2006 would have been better, 2007 in Northern California.

In fact this is a good example of Schiffty's generally good ideas but equally pathetic lack of actionable alerts:

Rather than say: get out of housing - it would have been far more instructive to point out indicators which would show when the game was peaking...or even over.

But then that would require more precision - the bane of all pundits.

Hence my appreciation for iTulip, EJ, and the Freds.

[Guest]

Re: Schiff & Itulip seem to have converged in thesis...

You are right C1ue - it was indeed too early in respect to national markets, but not by much for San Diego. I sold in April 2004. I had another house I was doing a major renovation on which I finished in July of 2004 and although it came out really nicely and was a keeper, I had a strong intuition that my local market was close to topping out - so I turned around and sold that too. As it turned out, the peak of the market here in So Cal was actually either right then or in the first half of 2005. San Diego was the earliest to boom in California, and the earliest to come down off the boom, so my exit was OK.

I really would have liked to keep it for all the work that went into fixing it up. Big spread - 2200 square feet on close to half an acre in central SD. Oh well, easy come easy go. The property was bought by a young Chinese couple, in their twenties. He a financial analyst (??), she a newly minted CPA. Not a scrap of good sense between them regarding overvalued real estate. As you can see from the subsequent trajectory, they are down $180,000 from the price they paid me for it four years ago, and fully $220.00 below it's peak price. I really feel sorry for these kids.

"Hence my appreciation of iTulip, EJ and the Freds" - well certainly I agree. Just the heaping of praise sometimes cuts a few corners on the facts regarding any other mortals out there who may have had a grain of insight on what was developing. Peter "Schiffty" was not the only one, either. There were a few people around with some astute ideas about what was developing. Too much "iTulip wuz first-ism" may spoil a good thing occasionally. BTW, Peter Schiffty was never claiming to provide a specific date as to when real estate "must" peak, which rendered his warning of a certain sobriety.

2003 and 2004 was WAY too early to be exiting housing.

2005 or 2006 would have been better, 2007 in Northern California.

In fact this is a good example of Schiffty's generally good ideas but equally pathetic lack of actionable alerts:

Rather than say: get out of housing - it would have been far more instructive to point out indicators which would show when the game was peaking...or even over.

But then that would require more precision - the bane of all pundits.

Hence my appreciation for iTulip, EJ, and the Freds.

GORDON WAY HOME - SOLD AUGUST 2004.jpg

However you want to re-parse it, Peter *Schiffty* saved my butt with that advice. He wasn't early by much for San Diego's price peak.

[metalman]

Re: Schiff & Itulip seem to have converged in thesis...

2003 and 2004 was WAY too early to be exiting housing.

2005 or 2006 would have been better, 2007 in Northern California.

In fact this is a good example of Schiffty's generally good ideas but equally pathetic lack of actionable alerts:

Rather than say: get out of housing - it would have been far more instructive to point out indicators which would show when the game was peaking...or even over.

But then that would require more precision - the bane of all pundits.

Hence my appreciation for iTulip, EJ, and the Freds.

sean o'toole can testify to that... got out of both tech stocks at the peak q1 2000 and rre mid 2006 based on ituip, so he's said. (btw, where's sean been, lately?) the cre peak call june 2008 took patience. i appreciate the specificity... dec. 2007 on the stock market, june 2008 on cre, the forecast of the jobs crash, the percent of retailers to go belly up... etc.

that said, itulip's been quiet about 2009. when do i short bonds? maybe they don't like what they see and they're busy moving ops to a bunker :eek:

[santafe2]

Re: Schiff & Itulip seem to have converged in thesis...

when do i short bonds? maybe they don't like what they see and they're busy moving ops to a bunker :eek:

Hum, I'd love to know the answer to that one. As you know, I've been short bonds, and continue to short them but now that the Fed is publicly saying they're going to buy long term US debt from the Treasury...I'm only sure it's still farther out.

[flintlock]

Re: Schiff & Itulip seem to have converged in thesis...

There is a high rise apartment fire. 1000 people live in the building. Sadly, only 100 are rescued. One guy saves 80, another 20. Some on this forum would stone to death the guy who only saved 20. After all, he could have done better.

[karim0028]

Re: Schiff & Itulip seem to have converged in thesis...

You know i am noticing a huge shift in the public perception of what is to come... I was watching CNN and saw Ali Velshi bring on some economist that looks like hes wired on meth (his eyes bug out and stuff, if you watch the boob tube you probably know who he is, they have him on often)....

HE (nutty looking economist) was talking about possible hyperinflation, when just last week he was harping about the need for a stimulus or we were gonna crash and burn.. He mentioned that there were slight signs that the money the fed was pumping into the economy is starting to have an inflationary impact...

Honestly, now im worried. Now, its mainstream. It seems that MSM is now on board with the iTulip thesis... Wonder if this is to psychologically lube up the american public for the reaming thats gonna come next.....