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Mish...Schiff was wrong!

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  • #16
    Re: Mish...Schiff was wrong!

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/

    Mish vs Peter Schiff

    By Barry Ritholtz - January 27th, 2009, 9:00PM

    On Sunday night, Mike Shedlock lobbed a hand grenade Peter Schiff’s way (here, and mirrored here).

    Around late 2008, some PR flacks were circulating a Schiff’s greatest hits — short excerpts of his appearances on major media. It was apparent to me that these heavily edited clips were not coming from random readers, but rather, were part of an organized PR campaign.I do not know if this annoying guerilla marketing approach is what motivated Mish to write his takedown, but it sure made me come close several times.

    Regardless of the motivation, in a meticulous, fact-based post, Shedlock highlighted the poor investment returns Schiff has generated in 2008. Through the grapevine, I have heard that Schiff was livid, and is threatening a lawsuit.

    Too late: I understand more fireworks are coming, via a major media outlet that picked up the specific details from Mish, and independently verified them. Look for a major story soon (possibly as early as Weds/Thur). As is so often the case these days, a blogger discovered something newsworthy, and the MSM picked up on it afterwards.

    ~~~
    In the past, I defended Schiff against a pretty shoddy piece of hit journalism by Forbes. It was a case of pretty weak investigative reporting — and I expect much better from Forbes. I have also highlighted the works of Blog Spotlight: Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis (November 30th, 2006, 7:00PM).

    I’m not sure you call me neutral — but I am certainly even handed in this case. However, I simply cannot find anything in Mish’s blog post that is actionable. Besides, who would want to open themselves up to the sort of discovery process slander/libel litigation would entail for the plaintiff. It would make a colonoscopy look pleasant by comparison . . .
    Jim 69 y/o

    "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

    Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

    Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

    Comment


    • #17
      Re: Mish...Schiff was wrong!

      Peter Schiff has a big trumpeting pie-hole. When he and his clients have taken an absolute drubbing during the biggest declines in 50 years he should at least adopt a trace of humility and quit his trumpeting everywhere. I've read an internal memo of his to clients where he affected the "frank acknowledgement of errors" angle, but he did not keep it up for long and reverts almost reflexively to self-promotion as the truest expression of his character.

      Even if for no other reason than a cynical one, he'd have been savvier in terms of public relations, to fly somewhat under the radar during this very bad period - that would at least avoid the hazard of someone like Sitka Pacific taking a few (actually rather well aimed) potshots at him if he toned down the triumphalism in the face of the horrific drubbing many of his clients have taken. That insight would appear elementary even to a CEO with a sense of his firm's most canny market positioning - but it's lost here.

      This is not an endorsement of Mish, about whom I have reservations, and he's gets bombastic at times in his own right, but no-one is a match for the Peter's self-promotional style which looks like it's gotten him into genuine hot water on this. I don't envy Peter pressing a lawsuit on the strength of these issues, as he's standing on a wobbly stool.

      I pulled every last dime out of a Euro-Pac account in two stages, at the beginning of 2007 and then in mid-summer. I picked all my own portfolio years ago in that account (jettisoned everything Euro-Pac selected for me quickly back in 2005) and if I committed funds there again, I'd scrupulously insist on picking ALL my own investments all over again. Anyone who supinely allowed Euro-Pac to "build their portfolio" for them was letting their guard down and not listening to what their instincts should have been telling them. Peter's style is to lean quite far forward in fairly concentrated portfolios, on a narrow thesis and then put a very high premium on showing the markets how tough you are.

      Works OK until it stops working and then it can wipe you out in a hurry. Pricey outfit too! Charging 6% commissions per trade with not even a trace of a recommended hedging or exit strategies for their clients is crap. Peter is "hoist by his own petard" here.

      Comment


      • #18
        Re: Mish...Schiff was wrong!

        Mish has some questions to answer regarding the way he says he runs his client accounts.
        He says he has a maximum 1.7% short position rule which is next to impossible with smaller sized individual accounts and he claims a correlation to the S&P of only 0.17.
        This correlation may be true but seems very unlikely. After Madoff those claiming almost no correlation need to provide some proof that makes sense.
        This is argued better here for those interested:
        http://slycapital.com/2009/01/28/mis...iff-round-two/

        Comment


        • #19
          Re: CALLING FRED

          Originally posted by doom&gloom View Post
          Good to see SOMEONE calling Schiff out!
          Mish said on his website:

          "12 Ways Schiff Was Wrong in 2008
          • Wrong about hyperinflation
          • Wrong about the dollar
          • Wrong about commodities except for gold
          • Wrong about foreign currencies except for the Yen
          • Wrong about foreign equities
          • Wrong in timing
          • Wrong in risk management
          • Wrong in buy and hold thesis
          • Wrong on decoupling
          • Wrong on China
          • Wrong on US treasuries
          • Wrong on interest rates, both foreign and domestic


          That's a lot of things to be wrong about, especially given all the "Peter Schiff Was Right" videos floating around everywhere. The one thing he was right about was the collapse of US equities and no part of his investment strategy sought to make a gain from that prediction.

          Peter Schiff concludes many of his articles, books, etc. with the claim he saw this coming and "positioned his clients accordingly".
          raja
          Boycott Big Banks • Vote Out Incumbents

          Comment


          • #20
            Re: Mish...Schiff was wrong!

            I can only say that the only thing i KNEW was the Pound was going to get killed over the next 5-10 years. Thus just about ANYTHING that was not UK based or valued in £ was fine..............& thus it has worked out.

            My suspision is that Schiff IS right, but it will be longer process than he though.....say 3-5 years, not 6-12 months.

            We will see.
            Mike

            Comment


            • #21
              Re: Mish...Schiff was wrong!

              Originally posted by mickeyc21 View Post
              Mish has some questions to answer regarding the way he says he runs his client accounts.
              He says he has a maximum 1.7% short position rule which is next to impossible with smaller sized individual accounts and he claims a correlation to the S&P of only 0.17.
              This correlation may be true but seems very unlikely. After Madoff those claiming almost no correlation need to provide some proof that makes sense.
              This is argued better here for those interested:
              http://slycapital.com/2009/01/28/mis...iff-round-two/

              Good points.

              Mish has really set himself up too - he'll get the same treatment and worse when he inevitably blows it.
              http://www.NowAndTheFuture.com

              Comment


              • #22
                Re: Mish...Schiff was wrong!

                Why Mish or Schiff when you can do it yourself and drink the fees?

                Comment


                • #23
                  Re: Mish...Schiff was wrong!

                  As an observation and fact checking:

                  Just as a reminder, audio debate Janszen vs. Mish back in 2006.
                  What Mish clearly predicted back in 2006 is playing out today.
                  People that follow Mish, Janszen, Schiff as people from the outside know what is going on.

                  http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...n-vs-mish.html

                  What's most noticebale about this debate is how Mish is straighforward and clearly states his prediction, where Janszen fills up the air with words with no specific prediction. Mish got the key word "inflation" out of Janszen in the end of the interview, but that was a tough one.

                  So far, Mish's predictions are playing out precisly.

                  Schiff can be a politician. Janszen can be a writer. They are not economists. They know how to say words and involve their listeners into a panic mode, attempt to sign up as many people as possible to be a subscriber to iTulip site, sell their books, ask to call their brokers at Europac... This is simply marketing.

                  Now iTulip is offering a "discount" if long-term subscribers sign up for 2 years. iTulip subscriber's confidence took a hit with the recent market events and predictions that turned out exactly the opposite. There is damage. Incorrectness cost investors that listened huge losses. iTulip is attempting to backpedal. Schiff is trying to convince everyone he was right and acting like nothing happened. 40%-70% losses "no big deal", since you can make 15% of yearly dividends and gold "still up". Fool me once shame on you...

                  There is no disinflation and there will not be any. There is deflation on the mainstreet and that is today's fact. You can call it "Debt deflation", but that is 'de facto' deflation.

                  Gold is money and it held up not because it is just a commodity. Gold has no liability as opposed to fiat. Gold perfroms in ucertainty, high volatility, including deflation. It's silly to take credit for Gold performing by stating that you bet on inflation. Schiff did this, so did Janszen.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Re: Mish...Schiff was wrong!

                    Originally posted by deflateIT View Post
                    As an observation and fact checking:

                    Just as a reminder, audio debate Janszen vs. Mish back in 2006.
                    What Mish clearly predicted back in 2006 is playing out today.
                    People that follow Mish, Janszen, Schiff as people from the outside know what is going on.

                    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...n-vs-mish.html

                    What's most noticebale about this debate is how Mish is straighforward and clearly states his prediction, where Janszen fills up the air with words with no specific prediction. Mish got the key word "inflation" out of Janszen in the end of the interview, but that was a tough one.

                    So far, Mish's predictions are playing out precisly.

                    Schiff can be a politician. Janszen can be a writer. They are not economists. They know how to say words and involve their listeners into a panic mode, attempt to sign up as many people as possible to be a subscriber to iTulip site, sell their books, ask to call their brokers at Europac... This is simply marketing.

                    Now iTulip is offering a "discount" if long-term subscribers sign up for 2 years. iTulip subscriber's confidence took a hit with the recent market events and predictions that turned out exactly the opposite. There is damage. Incorrectness cost investors that listened huge losses. iTulip is attempting to backpedal. Schiff is trying to convince everyone he was right and acting like nothing happened. 40%-70% losses "no big deal", since you can make 15% of yearly dividends and gold "still up". Fool me once shame on you...

                    There is no disinflation and there will not be any. There is deflation on the mainstreet and that is today's fact. You can call it "Debt deflation", but that is 'de facto' deflation.

                    Gold is money and it held up not because it is just a commodity. Gold has no liability as opposed to fiat. Gold perfroms in ucertainty, high volatility, including deflation. It's silly to take credit for Gold performing by stating that you bet on inflation. Schiff did this, so did Janszen.
                    Mish has changed his position on inflation and deflation so many times we gave up trying to keep track.

                    He cannot distinguish between asset price deflation in the FIRE Economy and goods and services price deflation in the production/consumption economy because his economic model is too primitive to tell them apart. Everything is the same in his world.

                    iTulip's subscribers quadrupled because its forecasts have been correct for ten years:

                    We are not the only ones who claim these to be true. Barron's, the Boston Globe, and many others think so, too.

                    Nice try, tho. Now go troll someone else's site.

                    By the way, gold is only money because governments said it was, for the purpose of allowing a consistent medium for the payment of taxes.
                    Last edited by FRED; January 28, 2009, 06:22 PM.
                    Ed.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Re: Mish...Schiff was wrong!

                      fred, any good links/books that explain the history of that?

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Re: Mish...Schiff was wrong!

                        Provide a piece of evidence of Mish changing his position to support your statement.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Re: Mish...Schiff was wrong!

                          Originally posted by mikedev10 View Post
                          fred, any good links/books that explain the history of that?
                          Here's a good place to start.
                          Ed.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Re: Mish...Schiff was wrong!

                            Originally posted by FRED View Post
                            Nice try, tho. Now go troll someone else's site.
                            My sentiments exactly.

                            iTulip and its posters are obviously rattling some of Mish's believers. That was not the only similar post from recent days.
                            http://www.NowAndTheFuture.com

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Re: Mish...Schiff was wrong!

                              Originally posted by deflateIT View Post
                              Provide a piece of evidence of Mish changing his position to support your statement.
                              Don't be lazy. Google is your friend. Look it up for yourself.
                              Ed.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Re: Mish...Schiff was wrong!

                                That answer was predictable. Subscriber's bubble will soon deflate.

                                Comment

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