I think Gold is about to have a run

[Guest]

Re: I think Gold is about to have a run

Basil -

Someone here posted a chart of the USD rising sharply to 88 and then tanking down from there, and now rising again and closing in on that number. You'd be advised to watch 88 and if you see the USD breeze right on up past it, it would be a good time to carefully disengage yourself from any inclination to follow iTulip's verdict blindly on this point. They have a great, no, make that even a superb batting average, but the USD rising up past that 88 would be giving off some quite serious signals that it wants to climb right on up past 90 and towards 100. When it tumbled from 88 I noticed a large number of articles cropping up explaining how that tumble "validated" the entire point that the USD rise "had to collapse". What struck me was the large number of such articles appearing, and also how they all were uniformly engaging in thesis-reaffirmation a little too strenuously. To put it quite simply, no matter how much trust you feel in the iTulip hypothesis regarding the Dollar's demise, remember that iTulip have pointedly mentioned that they only *surmise* that it's *likely* do come down within the next year. I don't think this language was employed casually, as they probably grant it could also run a good deal longer. You'd do well to juxtapose such approximate targets with a cold hard look at what the USD is actually doing in the next 3-6 months, and if it's scooting up north of 90 on the dollar index, according to all empirical approaches that would merit your careful scrutiny. My suggestion was that the USD could hit 145, but just because you don't see it there tomorrow does not mean it can't get there in due course - say, in 2-3 more years? Look for signposts along the way and modify assumptions accordingly. BTW - I own substantial positions in bullion, so I am not talking my book on this point. But I have a very persistent hunch the USD is going to go scooting right past 88 and on north from there.

Don't encourage him. Lukester is a rare breed, a contrarian contrarian. He has been calling for the gold flop for some time now, as well as the dollar surge. . . 140 here we come. Short term, gold could go anywhere. Long term . . . I buy the Itulip analysis. They have nailed this thing almost every step of the way. If Lukester is putting his money where his fingertips are, Lukester is most likely going to get flattened. Not wishing, just observing.

[Shakespear]

Re: I think Gold is about to have a run

Thanks Luke for your brave view. I'm an engineer and finance is a bit off my track. However my hunches have helped me in this area. I have a hunch that US is being viewed as a place where something can be done in a dynamic way. It is the country of Hope, so how can you bet against it. :-)

[grapejelly]

Re: I think Gold is about to have a run

luke's off on his sentiment reading. no one is relaxed with gold at $900 while 99% of the financial press bleats about deflation. gold has been climbing a wall of worry for over a year now.

gold has done extraordinarily well in all currencies except the USD. And it hasn't exactly folded it's tent in the USD either.

(Now the gold equities, that is a different story :eek: )

[metalman]

Re: I think Gold is about to have a run

gold has done extraordinarily well in all currencies except the USD. And it hasn't exactly folded it's tent in the USD either.

(Now the gold equities, that is a different story :eek: )

you guys and your gold equities! gluttons for punishment.

[BrianL]

Re: I think Gold is about to have a run

Sorry, still catching up: What are you measuring the dollar against with respect to the 88? I must have missed that chart.

[Basil]

Re: I think Gold is about to have a run

Basil -

Someone here posted a chart of the USD rising sharply to 88 and then tanking down from there, and now rising again and closing in on that number. You'd be advised to watch 88 and if you see the USD breeze right on up past it, it would be a good time to carefully disengage yourself from any inclination to follow iTulip's verdict blindly on this point. They have a great, no, make that even a superb batting average, but the USD rising up past that 88 would be giving off some quite serious signals that it wants to climb right on up past 90 and towards 100. When it tumbled from 88 I noticed a large number of articles cropping up explaining how that tumble "validated" the entire point that the USD rise "had to collapse". What struck me was the large number of such articles appearing, and also how they all were uniformly engaging in thesis-reaffirmation a little too strenuously. To put it quite simply, no matter how much trust you feel in the iTulip hypothesis regarding the Dollar's demise, remember that iTulip have pointedly mentioned that they only *surmise* that it's *likely* do come down within the next year. I don't think this language was employed casually, as they probably grant it could also run a good deal longer. You'd do well to juxtapose such approximate targets with a cold hard look at what the USD is actually doing in the next 3-6 months, and if it's scooting up north of 90 on the dollar index, according to all empirical approaches that would merit your careful scrutiny. My suggestion was that the USD could hit 145, but just because you don't see it there tomorrow does not mean it can't get there in due course - say, in 2-3 more years? Look for signposts along the way and modify assumptions accordingly. BTW - I own substantial positions in bullion, so I am not talking my book on this point. But I have a very persistent hunch the USD is going to go scooting right past 88 and on north from there.

I have never actually held any anti-dollar bets other than bullion. I have some other currencies lying around in case I need to get of dodge, but don't really view them as investments.

I will admit that 88 is an important marker for the USD, but am more focused on the system than on the charts. That said, at 88, I might be tempted to go with UDN, as I think the dollar will go down hard from there. Time alone will tell. But I will put my money with EJ on this one.

[BadJuju]

Re: I think Gold is about to have a run

But I will put my money with EJ on this one.

What does EJ say about it?

[Basil]

Re: I think Gold is about to have a run

What does EJ say about it?

That the dollar will begin to decline within six months of its dramatic rise in Q4 08, so sometime soon. I meant 'put my money' in a figurative sense here, not that EJ is advising making some kind of trade.

[BadJuju]

Re: I think Gold is about to have a run

That the dollar will begin to decline within six months of its dramatic rise in Q4 08, so sometime soon. I meant 'put my money' in a figurative sense here, not that EJ is advising making some kind of trade.

Ah, I see, thank you.

[Mega]

Re: I think Gold is about to have a run

Hi Luke................Welcome Back!
Mike

[Guest]

Re: I think Gold is about to have a run

Wotcher Miker.

[BadJuju]

Re: I think Gold is about to have a run

Since I only have about $500-700 to spend on an inflation hedge, would silver be a better investment for me?

[tastymannatees]

Re: I think Gold is about to have a run

Seems kinda dollar centric around here.... World supply/buyers is not only the US.

If I was anywhere else, Euro, AUS, Etc. and things are worse than they are here...well I would be buying gold.

That would drive the price higher in any event here in the US - Up $4 in HK as I type....

[Guest]

Re: I think Gold is about to have a run

One might get the impression that Schiff ran off with Metalman's wife from his attitude towards him.

Schiff is definitely a self-promoter. It's not my style either, but that doesn't make him dishonest or wrong.

I think Schiff MAY have let his desire for comissions influence his picks for clients. Instead of sitting out the crash in cash he had them in foreign stocks prematurely, perhaps because they didn't need to pay him a fat comission to sit in cash, and he was eager to gain new clients rather than wait. But he also likely did not foresee them being carried down with the US and Euro economies. I thought he was wrong there too, or at least the benefits weren't worth the risk till the dust settled.

I didn't use his firm for a few reasons, one of them being I don't need to fork over 3% to sit in cash or buy some canroys and gold and ag etfs. But it may surprise you that a lot of people out there don't know what some of you know about economics or investing and have to pay people to do it for them.

Rome wasn't built in a day. Investing isn't done over time horizons of a few months. He's been generally "right" and made his investors money for maybe 8-9 years now. He's been "wrong" for a whopping 4 months. And already things like oil trusts and gold that he recommends are up 30-40% from their lows, and many of the foreign stocks have recovered a good bit as well. I would also venture that his clients with well balanced portfolios will be better off in 2 years than if they'd been with and stuck with a traditional brokerage.

I read his book and took much of his advice and I'm about even from a year ago, which is pretty darn good compared to what would have happened had I not read it.

You can pick apart just about anyone's prognostications in the short run. Schiff certainly was not the only guy to be surprised by the contagion that drug down otherwise fundamentally sound assets. Let's see the picture in 2-5 years before we use terms like "idiot" and "wrong".

Just because the market is panicked or irrational in the short term doesn't make someone wrong. . I shorted "go.com" believing it could not make any money and would fail. It quickly about doubled in price after that, before going to zero not too long afterwards. Was I right or wrong? Depending on the date you asked, I was either a genius or an idiot.

And thank god there are people willing to be "doom and gloom", as the FIRE economy "everything is great" BS was waist deep and someone needed to say it.

PS: The only guy I know who has always been "right" and had winning years without fail was Bernie Madoff.

[John_42]

Re: I think Gold is about to have a run

Sorry, still catching up: What are you measuring the dollar against with respect to the 88? I must have missed that chart.

US dollar index is described here - http://www.akmos.com/forex/usdx/

its $USD on StockCharts.com - http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$US...d=p14956491548