952000 Filed for Unemployment last week! Jan 15

[Rajiv]

952000 Filed for Unemployment last week!

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 952,151 in the week ending Jan. 10, an increase of 220,205 from the previous week. There were 547,506 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008.

[Chomsky]

Re: 952000 Filed for Unemployment last week! Jan 15

952000 Filed for Unemployment last week!

What is the "adjustment" that lowers 950,000 to 520,000?

[Judas]

Re: 952000 Filed for Unemployment last week! Jan 15

What is the "adjustment" that lowers 950,000 to 520,000?

http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm

I don't get it either.

[GRG55]

Re: 952000 Filed for Unemployment last week! Jan 15

What is the "adjustment" that lowers 950,000 to 520,000?

I believe the Seasonal Adjustment is an algorithm that uses the data from the same time period in prior years to "smooth" the data. During periods of economic growth it tends to overstate unemployment, as it takes time to work past the prior period data of declining employment during the previous contraction. In periods of declining economy it, of course, tends to understate unemployment for the same reason.

This can result in some bizarre conclusions such as the situation earlier in the current contraction where seasonally adjusted employment reports showed increases in construction sector employment despite the obviously already collapsed new housing sector.

And if this sort of thing really gets you excited you can read all about it at the Bureau of Labor Stats site in this document here:
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsrs2009.pdf

[goadam1]

Re: 952000 Filed for Unemployment last week! Jan 15

The not seasonally adjusted one week change was over 200,000. Wow.

But I thought January was one of the months they don't add pretend jobs.

[GRG55]

Re: 952000 Filed for Unemployment last week! Jan 15

The not seasonally adjusted one week change was over 200,000. Wow.

But I thought January was one of the months they don't add pretend jobs.

You may be referring to the Birth/Death Adjustment [?], which I believe is not the same as the Seasonal Adjustment.

Here's 31 pages of stuff from the BLS related to the most recent release.

I'm certain it contains each and every one of Rumsfeld's combinations; known unknowns, unknown unknowns, etc...

[xtronics]

Re: 952000 Filed for Unemployment last week! Jan 15

If you want better numbers, wonder over to http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

Read the primers to understand how we are lied to...