U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible

[Master Shake]

EL PASO - Mexico is one of two countries that "bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse," according to a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command on worldwide security threats.

The command's "Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)" report, which contains projections of global threats and potential next wars, puts Pakistan on the same level as Mexico. "In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico.


"The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone."

http://www.elpasotimes.com/newupdated/ci_11444354

[D-Mack]

Re: U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible

Nothing about falling oil revenues?


I think this could be an issue for other countries

Oil Slump Forces Rich Arab Countries to Run Deficits (Update2)

Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Tumbling oil prices are forcing many of the richest Persian Gulf states to record budget deficits and limit a critical source of foreign investment for poorer Arab countries.

Central bank governors and finance ministers from the 22- member Arab League gathered in Kuwait City today for a week of meetings on the global financial crisis and Gulf efforts to create a single currency. The conference opened with a minute of silence for the more than 900 Palestinians killed in a 2 1/2-week Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip.

Crude is now selling at below the budget break-even point for seven of the Arab world’s 10 top oil producers and Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest exporter, is forecasting its first deficit in at least seven years. Poorer Arab states are facing a fall in foreign investment with Egypt expecting inflows to almost halve this year, according to EFG-Hermes Holding SAE, the largest Arab investment bank by market value.

“We have to find ways to limit the impact which could hurt the Arab economy and make sure economic growth in Arab countries continues at appropriate levels,” Kuwaiti Finance Minister Mustafa Jassim al-Shimali said, referring to the global crisis. “We are not immune to its negative effects.”

...

[whitetower]

Re: U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible

The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels.

Funny, I always thought that the Mexican government is the criminal gangs and drug cartels.

[RebbePete]

Re: U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible

EL PASO - Mexico is one of two countries that "bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse," according to a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command on worldwide security threats.

The command's "Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)" report, which contains projections of global threats and potential next wars, puts Pakistan on the same level as Mexico. "In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico.


"The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone."

http://www.elpasotimes.com/newupdated/ci_11444354

Intersting. A country of 106 million people sinking to anarchy right on the border of the United States. Black swan, anyone?

Possible US responses I can see:

1. Ignore it and hope it goes away. Refuggees stream across the border and drug cartels expand their influence to include the Southwestern US. Massive amounts of federal money pour into the area to stabilize the situation, into law enforcement and public assistance types of applications like welfare. The situation festers until we get to #2 or #3...
2. The US fortifies the border with Mexico. This will be interesting to see since it will antagonize the Democrats' base of support. Lots of money pours into the area to fortify the wall and provide staffing. Either an existing arm of the defense department is utilized or DHS now has command of an armed force.
3. The US invades Mexico ala what it has had to do in the past with Haiti. Talk about antagonizing the Democrats! Might lead to an overt or de facto union between the two countries. Might lead to Mexico becoming a US territory or even a collection of US states eventually. Economic impact would be a massive version of what happened when West Germany annexed back East Germany - years of financial turmoil, hopefully followed by some sort of recovery.

Although possibility #3 is the most bizarre, it sort of makes sense in that the US gains overt access to cheap labor, to sell into a (someday) emerging economy, and to the mineral resources Mexico posesses. It also plays into the plans of the elites for a "North American Union" someday.

Hmm. Not to buy too much into the "tin foil hat club," could this direction be "encouraged" by world shakers?

- Pete

[Andreuccio]

Re: U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible

1. The US fortifies the border with Mexico. This will be interesting to see since it will antagonize the Democrats' base of support. Lots of money pours into the area to fortify the wall and provide staffing. Either an existing arm of the defense department is utilized or DHS now has command of an armed force.
2. The US invades Mexico ala what it has had to do in the past with Haiti. Talk about antagonizing the Democrats! Might lead to an overt or de facto union between the two countries. Might lead to Mexico becoming a US territory or even a collection of US states eventually. Economic impact would be a massive version of what happened when West Germany annexed back East Germany - years of financial turmoil, hopefully followed by some sort of recovery.

I'm not sure about that. No doubt, if the US invaded Mexico today there would be rioting on the streets in many southwestern US cities.

But picture a situation where the Mexican government has collapsed. People starving, violence out of control. Is it possible the Mexican population here could overcome their objections and ask the US government to intervene in some way because of the misery their brethren back home were facing?

[Many Arrows]

Re: U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible

Nothing about falling oil revenues?

Excellent point. That was the first thing I looked for.

Oil revenues underpin Mexico's socialist state and its limited welfare programs. Mexico is not only hammered by the falling oil prices, but also by the dramatically falling production from the Cantarell oil field.

[GRG55]

Re: U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible

...Although possibility #3 is the most bizarre, it sort of makes sense in that the US gains overt access to cheap labor, to sell into a (someday) emerging economy, and to the mineral resources Mexico posesses. It also plays into the plans of the elites for a "North American Union" someday.


- Pete

Wasn't this the internal thought process behind NAFTA?