Inflation running hot: Trimmed PCE, 2.6%

[blazespinnaker]

I bet the Fed is freaking out about oil prices, right about now. If they go up, start looking for a fed hike or at least an overextended pause which worsens the recession via stagflation..

[bart]

Re: Inflation running hot: Trimmed PCE, 2.6%

It looks like a minimum target of $65 for oil from here, and I already have a few of my indicators pointing at a large Fed (with perhaps help from other central banks) intervention within days to weeks - early Jan at the latest.

[Finster]

Re: Inflation running hot: Trimmed PCE, 2.6%

It looks like a minimum target of $65 for oil from here, and I already have a few of my indicators pointing at a large Fed (with perhaps help from other central banks) intervention within days to weeks - early Jan at the latest.

No argument there. Here's the latest on oil from the Finster Financial Forecast...

[blazespinnaker]

Re: Inflation running hot: Trimmed PCE, 2.6%

It looks like a minimum target of $65 for oil from here, and I already have a few of my indicators pointing at a large Fed (with perhaps help from other central banks) intervention within days to weeks - early Jan at the latest.

What form do you see this invervention taking?

[bart]

Re: Inflation running hot: Trimmed PCE, 2.6%

What form do you see this invervention taking?

There are many possibilities but my top two for the Fed would be much lower hot money creation (temp repos and similar) and higher interest rates via SecLend operations or a hike in the Fed Funds rate (or very strong language in the release) on Dec 12th. The ECB (European Central Bank) is off most folk's radar too, so they could do something negative about liquidity too.

[Finster]

Re: Inflation running hot: Trimmed PCE, 2.6%

There are many possibilities but my top two for the Fed would be much lower hot money creation (temp repos and similar) and higher interest rates via SecLend operations or a hike in the Fed Funds rate (or very strong language in the release) on Dec 12th. The ECB (European Central Bank) is off most folk's radar too, so they could do something negative about liquidity too.

But where have they been? This inflation has been cooking along for four years. There has been no restraint from the Fed almost this entire freaking century. And now they are suddenly going to get religion?

Pshaw.

[bart]

Re: Inflation running hot: Trimmed PCE, 2.6%

But where have they been? This inflation has been cooking along for four years. There has been no restraint from the Fed almost this entire freaking century. And now they are suddenly going to get religion?

Pshaw.

Oh ye of little faith...
http://www.nowandfutures.com/grins/f..._stop_that.wav ;)


Actually, as you know, I'm talking about the changes at the edges that can have very large effects on markets much like the combination of the Fed's repo creation speed that slowed a bunch, along with the Bank of Japan's huge drop in their monetary base, that caused a large correction in April 2006.

[Finster]

Re: Inflation running hot: Trimmed PCE, 2.6%

Oh ye of little faith...
http://www.nowandfutures.com/grins/f..._stop_that.wav ;)


Actually, as you know, I'm talking about the changes at the edges that can have very large effects on markets much like the combination of the Fed's repo creation speed that slowed a bunch, along with the Bank of Japan's huge drop in their monetary base, that caused a large correction in April 2006.

Yes, my Fed-enabled friend, but I like to vent anyway ... ;-)

[bart]

Re: Inflation running hot: Trimmed PCE, 2.6%

Yes, my Fed-enabled friend, but I like to vent anyway ... ;-)

Very healthy - I should do more myself, especially during bleaker periods when I look at some of the darker potentials in the future.