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  • Eric Sprott Interview

    I'm sure Eric Sprott isn't familiar to many Americans or non-American readers of itulip but he is a legendary money manager in Canada. Here's a good, timely interview with him:

    http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/2060

    His position vis-a-vis mining equities is responsibly low key. But I assure you that the portion of his fund's returns contributed by junior mining and resource equities generally is substantial. He is an excellent stock picker.

    I thought I would post it here partially because I watched an interview with Faber on Bloomberg last week where he recommended junior miners and explorers. I almost fell off my chair. I have never heard anyone this senior - outside of resource stock specialists - recommend this sector. Got me thinking.

    Without being too vocal about it, I am one of the fringe here who like - especially junior - mining equities. I respect EJ's position that, generally speaking, mining companies are horrible investments. I think that's true. Finding a great gold or precious metals company is, in result if not method, like winning the tri-fecta (huge pay offs, statistically very unlikely.) But it seems to me that most investors treat these companies as if there must be a roulette wheel sunk in the middle of their board room table. Or they're treated as dirty, extractive industries (by people who are only too happy to use the essential minerals provided - Ill leave that subject alone.)

    I have found that you can make money on these kind of generalisations: the key skills are rooted in science (at least in exploration), and the track record of management can be traced and verified with good due diligence. The best of class management and geological teams build billion-cap operations from penny stocks. If you can get some expert insight into the business to cherry pick the best prospects the returns can be enormous on very small investments.

    So, getting to the point I wanted to recommend a few sites / services that I have found helpful:

    Inka Kola News: http://www.incakolanews.blogspot.com/

    Covers Latin American news and investments (principally, but not exclusively, mining.) Great window into Latin America in all aspects from a very thoughtful, politically astute and, must be said, snarky stock analyst. He imparts, in mercifully short and often very funny posts, years of hard- won wisdom. Just a great blog.

    The Coffin Brothers: http://www.hraadvisory.com/

    I have subscribed to about 5 different newsletters and they have been good, sometimes great at times. But I trust the judgement of these two. There is far more hard edged knowledge of mining here than the others who sort of dumb it down. Also better, more realistic sense of market dynamics and trading than generally available.

    Mickey Fulp: http://www.miningcompanyreport.com/

    A recent entry to the newsletters but I very much like his picks and rationale for them. Very conservative in his write-ups. Geologist by trade like the Coffins.

    I have always appreciated that itulip has never devolved into a boring "investment blog." It somehow calmy surveys the economic field of battle (on the individual, national and world stage) as if we were all adults that could manage our own affairs - fancy that! It is also blissfully free of "stock picks." This is simply meant as a pointer to to some resorces that I have found valuable.

  • #2
    Re: Eric Sprott Interview

    E. Sprott is the principal behind Sprott Asset Management.

    I've been checking in on their Investor's Digest written by John Embry for some time now. Definitely didn't come up with this one on my own. I wonder if it was Nickerson or perhaps Metalman that has mentioned Sprott in the past?

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    • #3
      Re: Eric Sprott Interview

      Originally posted by babbittd View Post
      E. Sprott is the principal behind Sprott Asset Management.

      I've been checking in on their Investor's Digest written by John Embry for some time now. Definitely didn't come up with this one on my own. I wonder if it was Nickerson or perhaps Metalman that has mentioned Sprott in the past?
      It was not I. but perhaps one of the Canadians mentioned him, such as Nicolasd, but that is a guess.

      I read some of the interview from 1/9. It seems to me the guy is in the gold and silver coin selling business, that turns me off, though his opinon and recommendations may be 100% on the money (gold).
      Jim 69 y/o

      "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

      Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

      Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

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      • #4
        Re: Eric Sprott Interview

        I wouldn't get put off by the coin business thing. That sort of threw me for a loop. (I don't own his funds or follow him closely.) But these are really weird times and I have chosen to see the coin thing as both good business and public spirited (not contradictory to me)... everyone should have some protection regardless of income.

        What makes Sprott important is that he's assembled a team of people who can spot early stage plays in the resource sector, buy them very cheap and ride them into production or into major discoveries. (Two very different outcomes in investor terms - some you hold, some you trade.) He has done this in energy as much as commodities but most importantly, gold.

        Or the point is his record which is about a 25% yearly return on his original fund since inception ~ 2000. (Searched for backup for this and couldn't find a good summary of returns - tired, sorry.)

        The reason I posted it here is simply as confirmation from someone I respect that they see value where I see value: the beaten to a pulp juniors. Likewise Faber. As long as you are selective and have some close analysis this is an opportunity. The point was not so much Sprott but the sector call from him. The key was to get some good, informed analysis via the sites / services I cited (or any others itulipers would recommend.)
        Last edited by oddlots; January 11, 2009, 02:06 AM.

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        • #5
          Re: Eric Sprott Interview

          The junior sector was due for a technical rally which will probably last out until March, but to be honest, most of the move (the 100%-300% gains) is already complete is some of these stocks - just look at the charts from November of this year out until December.

          Sprott makes money in this sector because he can get in on the private placements, warrant issues, etc. Most of the little guys must rely on their own skill/luck or the pronouncements of some newsletter writer.

          For some reason this sector gets a lot of internet exposure - perhaps that is why so many people place their hopes of getting rich quick in playing these stocks?

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          • #6
            Re: Eric Sprott Interview

            I've only seen a pdf by Sprott Asset Mangement called "The Visible Hand", it was about the PPT.
            Last edited by D-Mack; January 11, 2009, 05:25 AM. Reason: fixing errors

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            • #7
              Re: Eric Sprott Interview

              Originally posted by Chris View Post
              ...Sprott makes money in this sector because he can get in on the private placements, warrant issues, etc...
              This is an important point. It's also the reason that brokers like Canaccord & now-defunct Yorkton [in Canada] and funds like London, UK based RAB Capital's Special Situations Fund [run by high profile manager Philip Richards, who just had an awful year when his bet on Northern Rock went pear shaped!] love this sector. As Chris points out above, they get to play with the deck stacked heavily in their favour, even if they don't always win. And being a client of one of these firms won't necessarily protect you either [for reasons that anyone with a bit of imagination can figure out on their own].

              Sprott's had a few major boo-boos along the way, like anyone who plays commodities and junior resource companies. Even access to the best information, good analysts, and the above advantages aren't always enough to keep them in the black in the mining casino. Here's some news that came out last week [You may also want to have a look at what has happened to Sprott's stock price since its IPO ]:
              Sprott molybdenum fund folds up on falling prices

              Fri Jan 9, 2009 1:34pm EST

              OTTAWA, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp (MLY.TO) said on Friday it will liquidate itself and distribute assets to shareholders in the face of plummeting prices and demand for molybdenum, a rare metal used as a steel-hardening agent.

              Launched less than two years ago by Canadian resource guru Eric Sprott, the fund said its net assets were valued at C$1.75 per share on Jan. 7, of which C$1.51 per share was in cash and short-term securities.

              Sprott said in December that it was considering strategic alternatives to make best use of its cash position because its shares were trading at a discount to net asset value.

              The stock closed on Thursday at C$1.39 on the Toronto Stock Exchange, but jumped 13 percent to C$1.57 on Friday.
              A one-time market darling, the fund purchased shares of both molybdenum miners and the physical metal.

              Prices for molybdenum, which ran up sharply in 2003 and 2004, have fallen more than 50 percent since mid-September. Producer stocks have also been hammered.

              Shares in Thompson Creek Metals (TCM.TO), the world's top pure producer of molybdenum, have shed about two-thirds of their value over the past 12 months.

              Adanac Molybdenum Corp (AUA.TO) stock has plunged from 89 Canadian cents a year ago to 3 Canadian cents.

              Sprott said it has not yet determined the timing of its distribution plan.

              Now, this doesn't mean that there isn't money to be made for those with some courage and nimble trading skills, which I think was the point of the post that started this thread.

              But be very, very careful out there. You're walking through a field infested with landmines, that the brokers and other FIRE economy interests have beautifully landscaped with wildflowers to catch the ignorant, the naive and the unprepared.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Eric Sprott Interview

                A story to reinforce your point.

                A brilliant young friend who started a Canadian gold miner fund in 2002 did, by using his own local due diligence crew to review management, their books, do on site inspections, and so on, and warrants and other means to maximize returns, managed a stunning 23x return for his initial investors around the time the gold price peaked in 2008. If you gave him $100,000 in 2002 by early 2008 you had $2,300,000.

                Then the triple whammy hit his carefully hand picked gold miners: first inflation raised input costs and cut profits, then the credit crunch shut down production, then demand crashed. Last I checked his fund was off 90%, turning that $100,000 stake from $2,300,000 into $230,000. That's not a terrible return, except that if that investor had used the $100,000 to buy gold itself in 2002 for $300 at the time the fund opened then today he'd have $284,000, and without the fees and hair raising ride.

                Fair to expect rallies in certain mining stocks due to future supply constraints, but our now eight year old rule still applies: if we believe that a collapse in supply will outrun a collapse in demand while inflation takes off then buy the metal, not stock in the companies that dig up the metal. We have watched many brilliant people crash and burn trying, people who have done everything reasonably possible to eliminate risk, and know for a fact we are not any smarter than they are.

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