Demographics and the Future of the Global Economy

[fourthirtysix]

I've read a number of articles on the aging global population, entitlements and how population growth will peak around 9 or 10 billion in the next century.

I would be interested to hear peoples' thoughts on how this will effect the global economy both beforeand after the transition has taken place. What might the global economic system look like?

Particularly with regard to labor, there may come a time when there is a highly limited amount of labor in the marketplace. There would not need to be as much construction, other than repair and upgrades. That should affect property and land values, even if they are limited.

Companies will not always be able to rely on geographic expansion to grow, and may begin to encroach on other industries in order grow revenues and profits. This would further increase competition.

Again, any thoughts on the matter are appreciated.

[Spartacus]

I've read that China will do exceedingly poorly, India will do well

China will do worse than most of the world, which will do pretty badly.

China has 2 enormous population imbalances -

first, one age cohort is far larger than its neighbors (a worse imbalance than "the West" - Italy, Japan, US, FGR, Russia, etc ...)

second, the gender ratio will be murder. It could get REALLY bad when they get a hundred million 16 to 30 year old males with no hope of ever being married.

India (and apparently some of the Moslem world - Turkey, for example) is supposed to do fine because their population, while huge, doesn't have severe imbalances. India's problems will be straight too many people issues, not those other things.

This is frequently cited as a reason to get Turkey into the EU - Turks are fruitful where Europeans are choosing not to be.

[blazespinnaker]

Re: Demographics and the Future of the Global Economy

I don't think this will be a big issue.

The japanese, freaked out by all those billions of chinese and indians, are heavily at work on Robotics. Google is working on AI.

Productivity will soon not be a factor of population numbers.

Assuming we can get alternative energy..

[jk]

Re: Demographics and the Future of the Global Economy

i agree with spartacus on the special vulnerability of china. the one child policy has created an inverted pyramid in age distribution- 4 grandparents have a total of 1 grandchild. no wonder they have a high savings rate.

also the likely abortion or infanticide of females have created a gross imbalance in genders. lots of troubles likely

[Spartacus]

Re: Demographics and the Future of the Global Economy

The second is far more troubling,

considering the mischief that 16 to 30 year old males are wont to get into - on their own in (heaven help the Chinese) in "groups" or "congregations" (euphemism for mobs).

i agree with spartacus on the special vulnerability of china. the one child policy has created an inverted pyramid in age distribution- 4 grandparents have a total of 1 grandchild. no wonder they have a high savings rate.

also the likely abortion or infanticide of females have created a gross imbalance in genders. lots of troubles likely

[Spartacus]

Re: Demographics and the Future of the Global Economy

The invention of true autonomous AI will be a singularity - all previous calculations are toast.

It'll also be an event horizon - you CAN NOT know what's going to happen on the other side.

I don't think this will be a big issue.

The japanese, freaked out by all those billions of chinese and indians, are heavily at work on Robotics. Google is working on AI.

Productivity will soon not be a factor of population numbers.

Assuming we can get alternative energy..

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Demographics and the Future of the Global Economy

I've read a number of articles on the aging global population, entitlements and how population growth will peak around 9 or 10 billion in the next century.

I, for one, ain't gonna be here when, if ever, the poplulation peaks at 9-10 billion, and I am glad. Actually I doubt anyone old enough to read any of this will have too much worry about those times.

To me it proves the insanity of man on this planet in allowing the population to get even as large as it is now. I think you can attribute the presently uncontrolled population growth to three or four things: religion, politics, ignorance, and screwing--in no particular order. China with 1.3 billion, if it sees the need for population control, why doesn't the rest of the world? Fortunately for the planet, I believe, diseases and wars will keep the population down.

http://www.dailycamera.com/news/2006...ading-killerx/

LONDON — "In the next 25 years, AIDS is set to join heart disease and stroke as the top three causes of death worldwide."

And there will probably be some other new disease equally bad (or good) as AIDS that will develop. Whether or not one of the diseases turns out to be bird flu remains to be seen.

[Sapiens]

Re: Demographics and the Future of the Global Economy

Particularly with regard to labor, there may come a time when there is a highly limited amount of labor in the marketplace. There would not need to be as much construction, other than repair and upgrades. That should affect property and land values, even if they are limited.

Well, it will come a point where humanity will need to examine their values and legal systems as they pertain to property.

As some previously pointed out, once Artificial Intelligence (AI) makes it possible to have machines produce and harvest energy for the benefit of someone, without that someone’s effort, what then? Kind of like the experience the ultra-wealthy are going through, where they live off the effort of all others. In the case of the AI machines, it could be said that synthetic systems will be your servants, freeing you of the morality issues as relating to other humans servitude.

[blazespinnaker]

Re: Demographics and the Future of the Global Economy

The invention of true autonomous AI will be a singularity - all previous calculations are toast.

It'll also be an event horizon - you CAN NOT know what's going to happen on the other side.

There are many different levels of AI. And, hey, maybe there is no such thing as autonomy. Maybe that's just an illusion we've made up about ourselve in a desperate gasp for some sense of freedom.

[Sapiens]

Re: Demographics and the Future of the Global Economy

And, hey, maybe there is no such thing as autonomy. Maybe that's just an illusion we've made up about ourselve in a desperate gasp for some sense of freedom.

It called volition, and you can exercise it at anytime you want. The ultimate act being your choice to commit suicide and going through with it.

-Sapiens

[jk]

Re: Demographics and the Future of the Global Economy

And, hey, maybe there is no such thing as autonomy. Maybe that's just an illusion we've made up about ourselve in a desperate gasp for some sense of freedom.

and, hey, maybe there is no such thing as autonomy. Maybe that's just an illusion that emerges from another illusion that we have a desire for a sense of freedom, whatever that is.

[fourthirtysix]

Re: Demographics and the Future of the Global Economy

The second is far more troubling,

considering the mischief that 16 to 30 year old males are wont to get into - on their own in (heaven help the Chinese) in "groups" or "congregations" (euphemism for mobs).

I think this is an interesting point. I'm imagining what millions of young Chinese men, without anyone to marry, would do in an increasingly militaristic society.

It's a concern to think that China, with so many single males of military age, also have so much in savings lying around. It seems like a recipe for extreme military buildup, perhaps.

[lobodelmar]

Re: Demographics and the Future of the Global Economy

I'm with you 436...I can't remember where I read it, but there was a study done that proved times of war are often preceded by gender imbalance and lack of opportunity for 16-35 year old males to marry and have children.

China will have extreme internal pressure to become more aggressive, find an outlet for all those frustrated young men.

Same thing is happening in Islamic countries...no opportunities for meaningful employment and all of a sudden 72 virgins on the other side looks a heck of a lot more interesting.