Looking Good It Ain't

[audrey_girl]

Re: Looking Good It Ain't

Your point is taken, but I don't think the Taliban have much in the way of heavy artillery. I read The Last Valley last year, and can recommend it as an engrossing read (of particular interest, I admit, to artillerymen). The French bet they could establish fire superiority and defend Dien Bien Phu with the superior firepower of Western artillery, but the Viet Minh actually managed to defeat the French through clever placement of their own artillery. Because the French base was, by its nature, immobile, there was no need for the Viet Minh to site their artillery to cover a wide battlefield. Instead, they dug it into the mountain side, where the French artillery couldn't silence it -- and then they proceeded to pummel the base into oblivion (culminating in attacks that denied the French the use of their air field).

In some respects, the Battle of Dien Bien Phu was a lot more like conventional warfare than the guerilla war we're fighting now. The US can certainly lose in Afghanistan, but I don't think we'll see anything like Dien Bien Phu. If we lose, I think it will look like steadily mounting casualties, steadily increasing costs, and a general lack of progress that forces a withdrawal. My bet is still that we end up pulling out for fiscal reasons.

thanks for the thoughtful response - you are probably right about this thing ending up as one great big re-enactment of Little Bighorn; although I despair for this country and it continuing presence in that country. I read a lot of history and Afghanistan has never been easy for any invader whether or not that country had a valid reason for going in.

btw- there are a couple of great books about General Giap out there

regards -

ag

[Judas]

Re: Looking Good It Ain't

I would agree the Taliban are unlikely to be well endowed in the Queen of Battle.

Artillery is the King of Battle. Infantry is the Queen of Battle.

And as Ash says, finances will break our back- exacerbated by the time-honored Afghan tradition of attacking logistical assets and lines.

[ASH]

Re: Looking Good It Ain't

Ash: Did the French artillery commander commit suicide when the Viet Minh disclosed their arty assets? It's been a few decades since I last read Fall's Hell In A Very Small Place.

You inspired me to dig out The Last Valley when I got home.

No member of Colonel de Castries' staff was more gripped by despondency than Charles Piroth. During the night of 14/15 March he wandered from one dug-out office to the next, apologizing for the failure of his counter-battery plan; his friend Lieutenant Colonel Trancart recalled him saying, with tears in his eyes, that he was completely dishonoured. A loud confrontation with Pierre Langlais -- whose temper was shorter than ever after 36 sleepless hours of uninterrupted defeats, and whose own failed counter-attack was scalding him -- was overheard by Major Guerin and Captain L'Hostis. The paratrooper was tactless at the best of times, and his choice of words on this occasion was lacerating. The one-armed artilleryman had tormented himself with his failure since the evening of the 13th -- Castries had already asked a chaplain to keep an eye on him; now he took his shame to the privacy of his quarters. At some time on 15 March, Piroth took a grenade in his one hand, pulled the pin with his teeth, and clutched it to his chest.

[ASH]

Re: Looking Good It Ain't

btw- there are a couple of great books about General Giap out there

regards -

ag

Thanks. Got any favorites to recommend? General Giap appears as a figure in several of the books I have read, and is always written of with high regard. I wouldn't mind reading a biography.

best regards,
Andrew

[Chris Coles]

Re: Looking Good It Ain't

Having grown up in a military family and over the years with friendships that also gave an insight into the mentality of the common soldier, I find myself concerned about the idea of shipping military equipment across Russia. Imagine, if you will, the same thing in the US with Russian equipment. Boxes would "fall off the back of the lorries". Soldiers are masters at improvisation and "doing deals". The absolute imperative to get a look at the equipment would be both over whelming and a top level target. The kudos of finding out how this or that works and the chance of the adventure will ensure that, over time, every secret of every piece of equipment will be uncovered.

[D-Mack]

Re: Looking Good It Ain't

Having grown up in a military family and over the years with friendships that also gave an insight into the mentality of the common soldier, I find myself concerned about the idea of shipping military equipment across Russia. Imagine, if you will, the same thing in the US with Russian equipment. Boxes would "fall off the back of the lorries". Soldiers are masters at improvisation and "doing deals". The absolute imperative to get a look at the equipment would be both over whelming and a top level target. The kudos of finding out how this or that works and the chance of the adventure will ensure that, over time, every secret of every piece of equipment will be uncovered.

What happened to those Humvees Russia found in Georgia ?

[don]

Re: Looking Good It Ain't

Thanks. Got any favorites to recommend? General Giap appears as a figure in several of the books I have read, and is always written of with high regard. I wouldn't mind reading a biography.

best regards,
Andrew

Giap has written extensively about his military career. Many are available in one form or another on Amazon.

[don]

Re: Looking Good It Ain't

The best we can due on why the US invaded these countries is an educated guess. From the beginning I thought the principal reason was to prop up the dollar as both the world's reserve currency and its crucial component therein, keeping oil and other strategic commodities tied to it. The rest- pipelines, windfall profits on oil, rapid response capacity of ME basing, etc. were all real and all peripheral. An Abrams parked at an oil head makes a certain statement. In this game of Clue it was the Bonar in the Library

[c1ue]

Re: Looking Good It Ain't

The French were always saying if the Viet Cong would only stand up and fight, it would all be over.

They got what they wanted at Dien Bien Phu.

There is a lesson here.

[ASH]

Re: Looking Good It Ain't

The French were always saying if the Viet Cong would only stand up and fight, it would all be over.

They got what they wanted at Dien Bien Phu.

There is a lesson here.

Is the lesson "bring 'em on"?

The French were clinging to the remnants of their former colonial empire, following the humiliations of WWII. I am of the impression that their psychological attachment to empire was stronger than America's attachment to "finishing the mission" in Afghanistan. In the aftermath of WWII, French military capacity (and the economic capacity behind their military) was particularly weak. Even assuming that America's fortunes follow a similar trajectory, I think we will withdraw from Afghanistan long before our conventional might falls to the same relation to that of the Taliban that the French had to the Viet Minh at Dien Bien Phu.

[GRG55]

Re: Looking Good It Ain't

...Look. There is absolutely no shortage of natural gas in the world. There may be imbalances between supply and demand in particular regions, such as Northern Europe in winter, but how is a pipeline across Afghanistan supposed to fix that problem? Let China fight it out with the Russians for control of Central Asian gas. Nobody else really needs it.

Europe's best hope should be that the Russians win that argument, btw. With Gazprom choking on the stuff they'll practically give it away to you good folks in the years to come, just to get rid of it.

Even the Chinese have options to source their natural gas [this is an Australian natural gas project] .

It's a buyers market, and on a global scale will be for quite some time to come. Let the Russians, and their former satellite Central Asian Republics figure out what to do with all that gas.

Santos/Apache gas project resurrected

The Reindeer Domestic Gas Project was resurrected after partners Santos and Apache Energy secured a billion dollar contract with Chinese group Citic Pacific...

CITIC Pacific's largest shareholder is CITIC Hong Kong (Holdings) Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary of CITIC in Beijing, Peoples' Republic of China.

Apache, Santos Seek to Revive Australian Gas Project
Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Apache Corp. and Santos Ltd. are seeking to revive a A$900 million ($651 million) natural gas project in Western Australia after signing an accord to sell the fuel to an iron ore venture proposed by Citic Pacific Ltd...

..."It's an encouraging development at a time when lots of projects are being scrapped or deferred,'' said Graeme Bethune, chief executive officer of EnergyQuest, an Adelaide-based consultant...

[c1ue]

Re: Looking Good It Ain't

Is the lesson "bring 'em on"?

The French were clinging to the remnants of their former colonial empire, following the humiliations of WWII. I am of the impression that their psychological attachment to empire was stronger than America's attachment to "finishing the mission" in Afghanistan. In the aftermath of WWII, French military capacity (and the economic capacity behind their military) was particularly weak. Even assuming that America's fortunes follow a similar trajectory, I think we will withdraw from Afghanistan long before our conventional might falls to the same relation to that of the Taliban that the French had to the Viet Minh at Dien Bien Phu.

I'd be careful when you point to the French as military weenies.

After all, they did successfully pacify Algeria - only to give it up as not worthwhile long term. Algeria being roughly the size of Iraq, this is no mean feat.

No, the lesson is: when you hinge everything on one thing and you opponent knows it, you'll only get that thing one your opponent is fully prepared.

You might also note that both France and Britain - nations significantly smaller than the US - were able to quell insurrections in much larger subject nations successfully whereas the US has yet to succeed anywhere of note.

[don]

Re: Looking Good It Ain't

I'd be careful when you point to the French as military weenies.

After all, they did successfully pacify Algeria - only to give it up as not worthwhile long term. Algeria being roughly the size of Iraq, this is no mean feat.

No, the lesson is: when you hinge everything on one thing and you opponent knows it, you'll only get that thing one your opponent is fully prepared.

You might also note that both France and Britain - nations significantly smaller than the US - were able to quell insurrections in much larger subject nations successfully whereas the US has yet to succeed anywhere of note.

I was puzzled for years about the French thing too. Didn't a Sicilian named Napoleon do quite well with the French armies. Following WW1 the French army was considered the best armed force in the world. They were the principal force that had defeated the Germans over 4 long years. Most of the German general staff expected a replay in 1940. At the end of the 2nd world war De Gaulle approached Churchill for an alliance against overwhelming American influence. He feared they would both be swallowed up by the emerging Yankee Empire. He was right but Britain, sans Churchill, decided instead to become a junior partner of the US. There's a lot of hypocrisy in the French bashing. While US senators speechified about Freedom Fries the French were training Karsai's boys in Afghanistan. A number of the so-called neo-cons have French houses on the Med. At the heart of the French bashing is the fact that France has not knuckled under, as has Britain, Germany, Japan, etc. to complete US dominance. Just an acknowledgement of the facts.

On the US inability to beat the bad guys:

One, they usually do. You're forgetting most of the Central and South American adventures.

Two, the US plays the Republic card at home, unlike the French (Foreighn Legion and Paratroopers) and the British (thin red line of professionals) which sets up a contradiction in a long time endeavor. Everybody in the end wants the boys, and now girls, home. An attempt to "correct" this problem with a professional force, aka the Volunteer Army, has had mixed results and an unabashed massive turn to mercenaries has filled the gap. Battlefield robots is another Ka-billion dollar alternative.

Lastly, the world has changed. At the height of Euro and US Imperialism, bringing the upside of the first world to the third offered a rising local elite a reason to, being polite, cooperate with their betters. The gap in weaponry was also immense. Neither are the case today. There's a better than even chance that what the first world has to offer is made somewhere else. Small arms, abundantly available, are enough to attrite the occupying forces. Time does the rest.

(Note on Algeria: I don't think it was solely a "volunteer" decision by Paris to grant independence.)

[ASH]

Re: Looking Good It Ain't

I'd be careful when you point to the French as military weenies.

Who is bashing the French? If we'd been rolled by the Germans at the start of WWII, and had a lot of the war fought on our own soil, we'd have been particularly weak coming out of WWII also. To say that the French were militarily and economically weak at that time is not jingoism -- I'd say that it is pretty close to being a neutral fact. Also, I seem to recall reading that prioritization of resources between French Indochina and Algeria played a role in the weak French position in Vietnam.

You caught that I was echoing Bush's ill-conceived bravado by quoting "bring 'em on", right?

One of the themes of The Last Valley is that the French were materially weak, and that although it had been fashionable in American military circles to denigrate the French as weenies because of the outcome of Dien Bien Phu, the French fought very bravely with inadequate resources.

[c1ue]

Re: Looking Good It Ain't

ASH,

Fair enough.

Don,

I hardly compare Grenada with Afghanistan.

The US has not been able to quell insurrections in fairly large population nations to my knowledge - the only example might be the Korean conflict.

On the debit side: Cuba, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan I, Somalia

True, the will is somewhat weaker due to the loss aversion. But then again, it is precisely this loss aversion that keeps the US continuing back to the next foreign adventure.

A good spanking would probably be remembered a lot better.