"Worst is yet to come"

[FRED]

Re: "Worst is yet to come"

This was mind-boggling to me as well. Aside from the possibility that talk of Obama's stimulus plans was actually unconnected to the dollar's recent movement, and aside from the probability that the market's reaction is simply irrational, it also occurred to me that maybe I'm not properly taking the time factor into account. A lot of market participants trade and think on a shorter time scale than I usually attempt to. To carry over an observation from the "Keynesian insanity" thread, the loss to purchasing power associated with these policies is not necessarily immediate (although I think it is inevitable). Perhaps other investors are more game to "vacuum coins in front of the steamroller", as it were, than I. Or perhaps Symbols is correct and the fix is in.

And while on the topic of inappropriately sensored words... perhaps FRED uses an algorithm to edit profanity from posts (rather than by hand), and the routine is niggardly when it comes to allowance for hyphenated words.

Don't forget rule #1 of Ka-Poom Theory circa 1999:

"National currencies are primarily valued by relative economic strength among trading partners with floating currencies, except for the U.S. dollar."

Until they aren't. Your time scale needs to include the 10 years that iTulip has been waiting for the "until they aren't" moment.

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: "Worst is yet to come"

This was mind-boggling to me as well. Aside from the possibility that talk of Obama's stimulus plans was actually unconnected to the dollar's recent movement, and aside from the probability that the market's reaction is simply irrational, it also occurred to me that maybe I'm not properly taking the time factor into account. A lot of market participants trade and think on a shorter time scale than I usually attempt to. To carry over an observation from the "Keynesian insanity" thread, the loss to purchasing power associated with these policies is not necessarily immediate (although I think it is inevitable). Perhaps other investors are more game to "vacuum coins in front of the steamroller", as it were, than I. Or perhaps Symbols is correct and the fix is in.

And while on the topic of inappropriately sensored words... perhaps FRED uses an algorithm to edit profanity from posts (rather than by hand), and the routine is niggardly when it comes to allowance for hyphenated words.

Yes Ash I was just having a whinge really. Hells bells I'm not in Metalman's class;)

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: "Worst is yet to come"

Ash re time frame I think you are exactly right. I see a lot that the value of a currency is not correlated to the Current account surplus or deficit. These pronouncements come from people with statistical abilities far exceeding any I ever had. However I cannot help but feel teh time frame is a factor. I look at the value of the Austrlaian dollar. Sure in teh short term it looks like a pretty random movement vs the CAD. However over a 50 year time frame it looks damned close to me. The CAD just keeps getting worse and the A$ just keeps on getting lower!

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: "Worst is yet to come"

My inclination is to put this in a new thread, but the title of this one by Hellstrom is hard to beat.

jk made me aware of this guy Karl Denninger, of whom I had never heard or seen as I recall. Since being aware of his name, I noted phirang put up a link here somewhere to one of Denninger's posts, and on Prieur du Plessis's site http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2...009/#more-3568 du Plessis in his letter of this past Sunday posted a couple of references to Denninger's writing.

If you read Denninger's predictions below, I think one must ask, who is this guy and what does he know? Paragraph above suggests he is not necessarily a "nobody." Also, unless he went back during the year and edited his 2008 predictions, he was way more often correct than wrong, so perhaps he will be "hot" and "on the money" with these 2009 calls. His predictions for 2008 are abstracted at the end.

http://market-ticker.org/archives/2008/12.html 12/31/08

Ok, so with that cheery backdrop, here you go with my predictions for 2009.... and I will prefix this by saying this is a list I hope proves to be entirely incorrect. Perhaps there really is a Unicorn that craps skittles even though I've yet to find it - this is one round of predictions I'm willing to take a zero score on come December 09.

• The economy will not recover in 2009. Job loss will continue through the year and unemployment will reach 8% in the "headline" statistic by the end of the year. U-6 (broad unemployment, or the closest to "real" unemployment without government "cooking") will top 15%. All the "talking heads" are predicting a turnaround in the second half of 2009. They will be wrong. Look at their records for 2008 - all of them were predicting closes at or above 1500 for the S&P 500. Why does CNBC continue to put people on the air who, if you listened to them, cost you 40% or more of your money?
• Deflation, not inflation, will become evident well beyond housing. Other capital goods beyond housing will see real price declines for the first time since the 1930s. Debt is inherently deflationary; the "hyperinflationists" will once again be shown to be wrong (how many years running will it be now?)
• Housing prices will continue to decline. I believe we're about halfway done with the price correction. Those who think we will turn this in 2009 are wrong - unless we get an all-on collapse in prices in early 2009, which I do not believe will occur. I've heard several claims we will have positive year-over-year home price changes in 2009. I'll take the other side of that bet.
• The Fed's attempt to "pump liquidity" will be shown to be an abject failure. We will see either a Treasury Market selloff or worse, severe instability in the dollar at some point in 2009.
• GDP will post a 12-month negative number and there is a decent shot that we will actually see an official depression print before the end of 2009, defined as a 10% decline peak-to-trough.
• The Stock Market has not bottomed although you may think it has for a few months. The annual range will be quite extreme; I would not be surprised at all to see 1,000 touched on the SPX in the first part of the year. I believe the SPX will at least touch 500 in the next 12-24 months and the current bottom will not hold. It is possible that we could see a crash to SPX 300 and DOW 3,000 some time this year, probably after the spring (when the "Obama Halo" wears off - if it isn't blown off by economic events first.) Yes, this means I am predicting a fifty percent swing in the SPX in 2009. Lots of money to be made as a trader if you're quick and good, but an absolute minefield if you're a long-term investor.
• Precious metals will not be a safe haven. The callers for $1600 and above on gold will be wrong, unless there is a major military conflict. I do not rate that probability as particularly high, but it is an event (along with a major terrorism incident - nuclear or biochemical - that would cause a rocket shot in Gold prices), so I am hedging that call. The risk of this sort of "response" to the economic crisis is, however, real, and will rise significantly going into 2010 and beyond. We'll revisit this one (a major war) next year.
• The Dollar will not collapse. This is not because we're in great shape or will truly recover, it is because the rest of the world is in worse shape than we are. Last year pundits were all calling for the dollar to collapse to 40 - it didn't happen. Now they're calling the dollar's strength a "Bear market rally." Nonsense; the simple truth is that while we're in bad shape the rest of the world is literally on the precipice of a full-on collapse. European banks are more-levered and less-transparent than our banks as just one example.
• The pound or euro - and perhaps both - will likely be where the FX dislocation initiates if it occurs. I see the potential for the pound and euro to both reach par with the dollar, although I'm not going to go that far out on the tree limb and predict it - yet. Needless to say that would rocket the Dollar Index but it won't be our strength that does it - it will be their weakness.
• The US Consumer will go from a negative savings rate to a seriously-positive one. I am predicting 4% in 2009 but it could go as high as 10%. The math on this is simple - the "consumerist legion of more" has run its course and all that's left is debt. It hurts and bad; expecting the American Consumer to cut off his other arm is just plain dumb. By the way this is a good thing in the longer term for America once the excess debt is forced out and defaulted through the system.
• Commercial Real Estate will effectively collapse and most commercial Real Estate REITs will be either insolvent or limping on life support. There will be calls for bailouts (which may be attempted; the calls are already starting to be heard) but it won't matter - a failed business is a failed business, bailout or no, and overcapacity must go away before sustainable business conditions can return.
• Along with the above, expect 10% of all retail stores to close, and that number could go as high as 20%. That's not going to be fun; there will be hundreds of malls that wind up literally shuttered across America. Stay away from most retailers and property groups as investments. Firms like SPG and VNO are levitating on the strength of their dividends (7-10% yields at present); I believe this is a sucker play; if retailer defaults force dividend cuts (and I believe they will) the commercial REITs will go straight into the toilet.
• Several states will get in serious financial trouble and outright default of one or more is possible in 2009. California leads this parade. But even if there is a default on a state basis, the effect will be highly localized, as county and municipal governments vary in their wisdom and budget process. The real pain comes in state-wide social and educational programs. Be very careful if you are in municipal bonds or thinking of getting back into them (I recommended they be dumped in 2007 - look at what has happened to the closed-end funds in 08! Aieeee!) as the default risk is VERY REAL. If you're buying individual issues and do the work to determine not only the risk of default but also the likely recovery if they do default there are some good deals out there - but only if you're doing the work. "Trust me" (as in buying funds, whether mutual funds or closed-end stuff) is very dangerous.
• Mortgages are not done. The story last year was "Subprime." This year's will be "ALT-A", "Option ARMs" and so-called "Prime". The Fed and Treasury know this, which is why they are playing games with "agency" debt in a desperate attempt to clear this market before the ticking nuclear devices go off. The amount of debt involved in these "bad deals" is vastly higher than that in the "subprime" space and if they fail to contain it (a near certainty) Round #2 of severe bank instability gets served up on us in the second half of 2009.
• If you want to refinance a mortgage you may get one brief shot at it with long rates around 4%. You're nuts to buy outright unless you intend to die in the home, but if you have a solid reason to be obtaining a mortgage or wish to refinance you will probably get the opportunity. This assumes the "buydown game" gets going before Treasuries dislocate; if you get the opportunity take it as it is likely to be fleeting. The few places in this country where homes wind up selling for 2.5x incomes (on average) and you have an opportunity to finance at 4% and change will be decent buying opportunities - if you're sure you can cash flow the note (e.g. your job and/or income stream is not in any danger of collapsing.)
• Those who have said that the corporate bond market is being "unreasonable" in its expectation for defaults will start to look like the jackasses they are. Actual default rates (not projections) on non-investment-grade debt will skyrocket starting in 2009 and there will be no sign of it turning around this year. If you're playing in this area of the market thinking that "the worst is behind us", I hope you like walking around bald as the haircuts handed out to folks like you will be especially severe and delivered with a straight razor.
• The calls for "more lending" to consumers and businesses will go exactly nowhere. The problem isn't credit availability - there's plenty of money available to lend if you are credit-worthy. Those who are being turned down now simply aren't credit-worthy when one looks at what they want to do with the money and what they're backing their repayment capacity with. The more "credit stimulus" is thrown into the economy (and there will be more) the worse the downturn will get.
• General Motors and Chrysler will fail to meet their targets and it will be labor that sinks the deal. At least one and probably both will wind up in some form of bankruptcy in 2009. The UAW is insane; Gettlefinger needs to be strung up by his genitals and pelted with rotten tomatoes by his union "brothers", and if they had a lick of sense they'd have already done it. They obviously don't. I give this mess six months tops, with Ford as the only possible survivor. The recent GMAC games show exactly how desperate they are; 0% 5 year loans to people with 620 FICO scores are flat-out insane and the default rates on those loans are going to wind up in economics textbooks five years hence.
• Protectionism and currency manipulation will rear their ugly heads in 2009, originating not here but in Asia as their economies go straight into the toilet. China and Japan are at severe risk here.
• Commodities will appear to be headed for a new bull market but this will turn out to be a false hope as demand continues to collapse. Attempts to manage oil output to prop up the price will fail. Several oil-producing nations will find themselves in serious economic trouble, with Russia being in the lead but by no means alone.
• Sovereign debt defaults will number at least three with many other nations on "watch" for same; we had one last year (Iceland.) Noise about a US "AAA" downgrade will continue. Highest on the list for probables are Russia, which needs oil at roughly double its current price - and stable - to be financially viable. Not going to happen in the near term.
• China will have its first large-scale rumbling of civil unrest as a consequence of collapsing export demand and thus employment. They'll manage to tamp it down - this year. Don't take a bet on that holding together longer-term. Those who think China will be "ok" are deluded; they have a horrifying overcapacity problem (debt-financed, of course) and there is no way for them to get out of it. They are truly going to "take it in both holes" down the road, but the worst of it won't be in 2009 - that is still a year or two in the future.
• Foreign uptake of Treasuries will be choked off - by necessity. It won't be because they want to screw the US (although they should have a long time ago, given our profligate and unsustainable habits), it will be because they will be forced to redirect their resources inward as their own economies collapse.
• "The City" (London to be precise, Britain generally) will be recognized as getting it "worse than we are" (in America.) This will be the first of many validations of my thesis "we're screwed, they're gang-raped."
• Things will get "revolting" in a number of nations. Not here in America. Yet. If we're lucky the American Sheep will wake up and stage some of that peaceful protest stuff I outlined above. If we're not so fortunate 2010 could be really bad.

In terms of recommendations its simple - rallies are to be sold, cash is to be raised and prudence is to be practiced in your own personal financial affairs. Don't get creative in all things finance, get stingy and prudent. Your personal financial survival could well depend on it.

Let's score the 2008 edition predictions first:

• US will enter a recession: Confirmed by NBER. Check.
• Unemployment will rise north of 5%. Check (bigtime)
• Housing will not turn in 2008. Major check.
• The story in 2008 will be defaults on prime mortgages. Check.
• Consumer lending practice stupidity exposed. Check.
• Recreational sector (boats, etc) smashed. Check.
• Government will meddle. Biggest check of all!
• Buffett will win on munis. Miss - a clean miss.
• Equity prices will at least touch 1220, target of 1070, no surprise on a three-digit handle for the SPX. Major check.
• Return of capital is the dominant theme. Check; 0% IRX anyone?
• No "hyperinflation". Check.
• Debt to be paid down and/or defaulted. Half a check. The hiding continues, and so far, there's no indication that the end of that rope has been reached.
• CRE will collapse. GGP anyone? Check.
• Business CapEx will go to hell. Check.
• Dollar will strengthen. Check.
• Market callers coming to the public "hat in hand". Nope; clean miss. Where's Cramer committing Seppuku on national TV? Oh well; hubris knows no boundaries.

16 predictions, two clean misses and one half-miss, the rest either panned out or were proved tremendously conservative.

[FRED]

Re: "Worst is yet to come"

My inclination is to put this in a new thread, but the title of this one by Hellstrom is hard to beat.

jk made me aware of this guy Karl Denninger, of whom I had never heard or seen as I recall. Since being aware of his name, I noted phirang put up a link here somewhere to one of Denninger's posts, and on Prieur du Plessis's site http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2...009/#more-3568 du Plessis in his letter of this past Sunday posted a couple of references to Denninger's writing.

If you read Denninger's predictions below, I think one must ask, who is this guy and what does he know? Paragraph above suggests he is not necessarily a "nobody." Also, unless he went back during the year and edited his 2008 predictions, he was way more often correct than wrong, so perhaps he will be "hot" and "on the nomey" with these 2009 calls. His predictions for 2008 are abstracted at the end.

http://market-ticker.org/archives/2008/12.html 12/31/08

If we had time we'd go through how he revised and edited his forecasts.

If you have the patience you can find it all, including his assertion that no way on earth will the Fed will ever, ever engage in quantitative easing.

For example, he stated in 2007 that gold will in fall in 2008 as much if not more than any other commodity in 2008.

Wrong, but not on his checklist.

Where is his 40% DOW down in 2008 call?

Missed, but not on his checklist.

Decent source on short term trades, however.

[metalman]

Re: "Worst is yet to come"

If we had time we'd go through how he revised and edited his forecasts.

If you have the patience you can find it all, including his assertion that no way on earth will the Fed will ever, ever engage in quantitative easing.

For example, he stated in 2007 that gold will in fall in 2008 as much if not more than any other commodity in 2008.

Wrong, but not on his checklist.

Where is his 40% DOW down in 2008 call?

Missed, but not on his checklist.

Decent source on short term trades, however.

and without the itulip quality guarantee... 'if not 100% satisfied return unused portion for a full refund'.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: "Worst is yet to come"

To hell with all this gloom and doom, let's see what the really smart people who manage other people's monies are thinking is in store for investors this year.

Strategists See 17% S&P 500 Rise After Saying ‘Buy’ (Update3)

By Lynn Thomasson

Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The same Wall Street strategists who told investors to buy stocks in the worst year since 1937 are even more bullish than a year ago, predicting the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will rise 17 percent.

UBS AG, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG say the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates to as low as zero percent will help revive the U.S. economy and drive investors back to equities. Cheaper fuel prices and more than $850 billion in spending on roads, bridges and health care will send stocks higher, the strategists said.

Even if they’re right, the S&P 500 would end 2009 at 1,056, 28 percent below where the benchmark index for American equities started in 2008 and 35 percent lower than where the analysts said it would be now, based on the consensus of 11 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Some of the biggest investors are growing more optimistic as the S&P 500 advanced 24 percent since reaching an 11-year low on Nov. 20.

“Equities usually find a bottom about halfway through a recession,” said Binky Chadha, the New York-based chief U.S. equity strategist at Deutsche Bank who predicted the S&P 500 would climb 12 percent in 2008 and expects a 26 percent surge this year. “If policy gets it right, we should find a bottom and start to turn around. And if that happens, then it’s time to buy stocks.”

$29 Trillion

Wall Street analysts lost credibility in 2008 when none predicted a down year and the average forecast was for a gain of 11 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Instead, the S&P 500 tumbled 38 percent to 903.25 and $29 trillion was erased from global markets. The projections for this year would represent the best annual performance since 2003, when the S&P 500 climbed 26 percent.

U.S. stocks fell for the first time in four days as concern that a slump in corporate profits will stretch into 2009 overshadowed speculation the government will revive the economy with tax cuts. The S&P 500 slipped 0.5 percent to 927.45 today, halting its longest stretch of gains since November.

Concern that stock losses will deepen remains elevated even after falling from record levels in October and November.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, which measures price swings, ended 2008 at 40, up 78 percent from a year ago and more than triple the level at the start of 2007.


TED Spread

The Libor-OIS spread, a measure of cash scarcity, closed 2008 at 121 basis points after averaging about nine basis points in the year before credit markets started freezing up in August 2007. The difference between what the U.S. government and banks pay to borrow for three months, the so-called TED Spread, is about three times higher than before the credit crisis started, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Treasuries returned 14 percent last year, the most since 1995, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes. Investors sought the relative safety of government debt as losses and writedowns at the world’s biggest financial companies rose toward $1 trillion and the economies of the U.S., Europe and Japan fell into the first simultaneous recessions since World War II.

“People have been telling the investing public for the past six months to stay the course or buy this great opportunity, and it’s turned out to be a liability,” said Randy Bateman, who oversees $15 billion as chief investment officer of the asset management unit of Huntington Bancshares Inc. in Columbus, Ohio. “Any outlook right now is subject to a great deal of skepticism.”

‘All Available Tools’

Stocks rallied at the end of the year as the Fed said it will “employ all available tools” to revive the economy and President-elect Barack Obama pledged to boost growth through the biggest infrastructure investment since the 1950s.

The combination of government stimulus and oil’s 69 percent drop from its July record of $147.27 a barrel may pop the “bubble of pessimism” toward stocks, according to David Bianco of UBS, Wall Street’s biggest bull.

“The consensus outlook for 2009 is a full year of gloom,” Bianco, 33, wrote in his annual market outlook last month. “We believe 2009 will bring signs of a dawn in confidence with the first faint light appearing earlier than most investors expect.”
The S&P 500 began recovering an average five months before recessions ended in 1975, 1982, and 1991, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

‘Greatest Roars’

Bianco predicted 12 months ago that the S&P 500 would climb 16 percent in 2008, and stayed bullish after the subprime mortgage meltdown spurred the collapse of Bear Stearns Cos., then the fifth-largest U.S. securities firm, in March. He said in a July interview with Bloomberg News that the rebound in stocks during the second half of 2008 would be the “one of the greatest roars we’ve seen.”

UBS’s New York-based equity strategist now expects the S&P 500 to reach 1,300 this year as share prices cheap relative to earnings become irresistible. Last year’s slump left S&P 500 companies valued at an average 12.9 times operating profit, near the lowest since at least 1998, monthly data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The S&P 500’s dividend yield may be the “most compelling” signal that stocks are inexpensive, Abhijit Chakrabortti, Morgan Stanley’s New York-based head of global equity strategy, wrote Nov. 25. He expects the index to advance 7.9 percent this year.

The dividend payout for companies in the index climbed above the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note for the first time in 50 years in November and is now 3 percent. That’s 0.67 percentage point more than the yield on 10-year notes, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

‘Staging a Recovery’

JPMorgan’s Thomas Lee says the 47 percent drop in gasoline prices last year to an average $1.62 a gallon, according to AAA, combined with Obama’s plan for stimulating growth may revive consumer spending in the second half of 2009. Retailers are among the New York-based bank’s “top picks” for 2009. The S&P 500 Retailing Index trades at 12.5 times the earnings of its 27 companies, about half the average ratio this decade.

“Every year’s a new year,” said Lee, 39, who expects the S&P 500 to rise to 1,100. “One of the big hurdles is obviously going to be coaxing investors back. As we exit ‘09 we think the economy is staging a recovery,” he said in a telephone interview.

Economic Data

Economic statistics give little indication that a recovery is imminent. Consumer confidence sank in December to the lowest since records began in 1967, raising the risk that spending will weaken in 2009, data from the New York-based Conference Board showed last week.

Gross domestic product will contract in the first half of this year, while household spending is expected to fall 1 percent in 2009, the biggest drop since the aftermath of the attack on Pearl Harbor, according to Bloomberg surveys of economists.

Corporate profits have fallen for seven quarters, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Should earnings drop through the first half of 2009, as analysts surveyed by Bloomberg project, it will be the longest stretch of decreases since the government started tracking quarterly data in 1947.

The decline in corporate profits will probably push the S&P 500 back to its 11-year low of 752.44, according to Barclays Plc’s Barry Knapp, the only forecaster calling for the index to drop. He says the index will fall 3.2 percent.

‘Little Bit Early’

“We do think there will be an economic recovery in the back half of the year,” Barclays’ New York-based chief U.S. equity strategist said in a telephone interview. “You can do OK with the equity market this year, it’s just a question of when you commit. Right now, it’s a little bit early.”

The biggest bears at the start of last year, Morgan Stanley’s Chakrabortti and Merrill Lynch & Co.’s Richard Bernstein, had called for the S&P 500 to climb 3.9 percent to 1,525.

The index ended the year 41 percent below their estimate, data compiled by Bloomberg show. More than half of the S&P 500’s decline for 2008 came after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., once the fourth-largest U.S. securities firm, filed the biggest bankruptcy in history on Sept. 15.

“The thing we all got wrong was that there would be a safety net to catch any and all large financial institutions,” Deutsche Bank’s Chadha said. “Letting Lehman go has had devastating effects.”

Merrill’s Bernstein forecasts a bigger advance for the S&P 500 this year than his 2008 prediction, saying the index will climb 7.9 percent to 975. With global growth likely to “negatively surprise,” the New York-based strategist recommended utilities and makers of household products and drugs in a Dec. 9 note.

‘Textbook and History’

The MSCI World Consumer Staples Index, which includes makers of food, beverages and consumer goods, is valued at 15.2 times earnings, the cheapest since at least 1995, monthly data compiled by Bloomberg show. The MSCI World Health-Care Index ended 2008 valued at 16 times profit after trading at a ratio of 15.1 in November, the cheapest in at least 13 years.

The MSCI World Utilities Index ended 2008 with a dividend yield of 4.4 percent, about twice that of 10-year Treasuries. The ratio was the highest since at least 1995, monthly Bloomberg data show.

“Looking at the textbook and history of the market, it looks like there’s potential for a rally,” said John Carey, the Boston-based investor who runs the $4.64 billion Pioneer Fund that beat 74 percent of its peers last year. “It would be risky to be out of the market right now.”




Firm Strategist Target %ChangeBarclays Plc Barry Knapp 874 -3.2%Citigroup Inc. Tobias Levkovich 1,000 11%Credit Suisse Andrew Garthwaite 1,050 16%Deutsche Bank Binky Chadha 1,140 26%Goldman Sachs David Kostin 1,100 22%HSBC Holdings Kevin Gardiner 1,000 11%JPMorgan Chase Thomas Lee 1,100 22%Merrill Lynch Richard Bernstein 975 7.9%Morgan Stanley Abhijit Chakrabortti 975 7.9%Strategas Research Jason Trennert 1,100 22%UBS AG David Bianco 1,300 44%


To contact the reporter on this story: Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: January 5, 2009 16:59 EST

There's a table at bottom of the above that is screwed up and I ain't gonna unscrew it, maybe tomorrow, maybe never.

[GRG55]

Re: "Worst is yet to come"

To hell with all this gloom and doom, let's see what the really smart people who manage other people's monies are thinking is in store for investors this year.

Strategists See 17% S&P 500 Rise After Saying ‘Buy’ (Update3)



There's a table at bottom of the above that is screwed up and I ain't gonna unscrew it, maybe tomorrow, maybe never.

"A bubble in pessimism"...you gotta love that one.

[Chris Coles]

Re: "Worst is yet to come"

Damn the bloody censorship Fred. It's a word meaning "screwy" - a legitimate damned word!!!!!!!!!!!!
c**k-eyed

Compact Oxford English Dictionary:

Cockeyed . Adjective informal 1. crooked or askew; not level. 2. absurd, impractical. 3. having a squint.

Personally I keep a dictionary on the top of my monitor.

Fred, I recommend just once in your life to find a location of the Full 20 volume Oxford English Dictionary, http://www.oed.com/news/ and spend an hour reading just a few pages. it is quite amazing just how many words you will find that you never once imagined would exist and even more so, the huge range of meanings for common words. Try obvious and in that context, I once had great fun reading the variations on the words could, would and should for a debate with the US Patent office, which succeeded.