2009-Year of the fall of the West

[we_are_toast]

Re: 2009-Year of the fall of the West

With the greatest of respects, you should sit down and read this report from Scientific American's February issue.

http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=the-unquiet-ice

Unquiet Ice Speaks Volumes on Global Warming

Abundant liquid water newly discovered underneath the world's great ice sheets could intensify the destabilizing effects of global warming on the sheets. Then, even without melting, the sheets may slide into the sea and raise sea level catastrophically

By Robin Bell

Yep, very familiar with this report and the concepts expressed. I attended lectures, back in the late 80's, about the possibility of the great ice shelves of Antarctica slipping into the ocean. It's one of the reasons that I became very interested in the subject. I also used to work with one of the scientists quoted in the report. When I asked him about the possibility of sudden collapse of the big ice shelves, he was pretty confident that the big ones would be stable (not slide into the ocean) for some time. He expected to see more of the smaller ones turn into big slushies, and in fact he recently discovered another one.

Many of the predictions made in the early and mid 90's were far to conservative. Things are happening much faster than they anticipated. A sudden change in ocean currents and all bets would be off. So even if the market is bad, you might want to consider putting that beach front property up for sale after all.

[BadJuju]

Re: 2009-Year of the fall of the West

:eek::eek:

It will probably be several decades before rising sea levels start impacting what's left of civilization. So don't be too concerned about that beach front property. The changing weather patterns that are now occurring will have already devastated agricultural economies around the world and the mass migrations of a billion or two people will contribute to the regional wars soon to be fought over water and food resources.

This disaster will be very similar to the current economic disaster. 1st a few people in the know warn and almost no one listens, then many warn and those in power deny, then the disaster begins and the deniers say it will be short, then it's too late. There are no helicopters and printing presses that will fix this one.

You seem incredibly assured about a prospect of something that even some of the most astute climate scientists are quite uncertain of. And you further assume that the worst-case scenario is the only scenario of validity, it seems. :confused:

"What's left of civilization," sounds like a gross assumption of what is to occur during the economic crisis. Mind elaborating on it?

[Spartacus]

Re: 2009-Year of the fall of the West

Vested interests managed to cloud tobacco issues with "scientific" studies (by paid off "scientists") for decades.

Vested interests managed to cloud - to threaten scientists and publishers and confrence organizers about trans fats for decades. Read some of Mary Enig's first hand accounts of conversations and encounters with industry participants on suppression of research, for example. Now the pendulum seems to be swinging too far the other way on this ...

I hope the same has not happened with climate research.

I'm doubtful of the global warming "research". I do see a kind of groupthink there, but I'm much, much more deeply skeptical of the anti-warming side. There seems to be much more malice and underhanded dealing there. The case reported on Slashdot somet ime ago of Bush appointees trying to prevent publication of NASA research that tends to indicate global warming, for example.

You seem incredibly assured about a prospect of something that even some of the most astute climate scientists are quite uncertain of. And you further assume that the worst-case scenario is the only scenario of validity, it seems. :confused:

"What's left of civilization," sounds like a gross assumption of what is to occur during the economic crisis. Mind elaborating on it?

[we_are_toast]

Re: 2009-Year of the fall of the West

You seem incredibly assured about a prospect of something that even some of the most astute climate scientists are quite uncertain of. And you further assume that the worst-case scenario is the only scenario of validity, it seems. :confused:

"What's left of civilization," sounds like a gross assumption of what is to occur during the economic crisis. Mind elaborating on it?

The most astute scientists would never claim certainty of anything. But they would claim the evidence is overwhelming in supporting two conclusions.

1) Global climate change is happening now.
2) There is not enough historic data to determine how local climates will change. We are going into the unknown.

I make no assumptions as to any scenarios. I simply follow the data and expert opinion and make extrapolations into the future.

What's left of civilization refers to the time when sea level rise starts to have a major impact on humanity. The evidence indicates we will have to confront many serious climate change problems before sea level. An example would be Native villages in the arctic and Chinese railroads on the Tibetan plateau sinking into muck which was once permafrost. Also the massive beetle infestation in the western Canada/U.S. boreal forests indicate that we don't need the movie images of cities sinking in the ocean to face civilization changing problems.

An overpopulated planet walks a tight rope with regards to food and water. Even slight changes in precipitation and temperature patterns can devastate genetically identical crops, and reac havoc with river flows.

Although iTulip is an economic forum, and I would prefer to keep to the technicals of economics of which I'm trying to learn, I am a firm believer in E^3. Economics Energy and Environment are no more separable than matter and energy.