2009-Year of the fall of the West

[jtabeb]

Re: 2009-Year of the fall of the West

Which begs the question: when the next 350 billion is released will it go into treasuries too? Is the dollar run really over? Or does it have another leg?

Umm, Yeah?!? Where you been?;)

[GRG55]

Re: 2009-Year of the fall of the West

GRG55; to clarify, I am assuming you mean "repaid in devaluated dollars".

That's the most they can expect.

Given that most of those mortgages are held by foreigners in the form of securitized paper derivatives, as house prices in the US [and everywhere else] continue to deflate more and more will be written down to zero.

The extent of the worldwide real estate insanity is almost comical, now that the stories beyond the USA, Spain and Ireland are starting to surface. I was on the phone earlier today to the Gulf, and things in that formerly bulletproof region are getting truly interesting. There are widespread rumours that one of the long standing commercial banking stalwarts in the region, Gulf International Bank, is on the verge of collapse and will be bought out by the Saudi government.

Apparently the design and workmanship on the new Dubai VIP air terminal is so shoddy that none of the companies that insure private jets will allow their clients to use that hangar space. Isn't that typical in every instance, anywhere, of too much money piling into construction all at once. As I understand it, the hangar space is being used to house the ever increasing number of new cars being imported through Dubai that are no longer able to be flogged into the local market.

So much for the SWFs bailing us out. There's no place to hide this time.

That's why I think the title of this thread is a misnomer. It's not going to be restricted to "the West".

[phirang]

Re: 2009-Year of the fall of the West

That's the most they can expect.

Given that most of those mortgages are held by foreigners in the form of securitized paper derivatives, as house prices in the US [and everywhere else] continue to deflate more and more will be written down to zero.

The extent of the worldwide real estate insanity is almost comical, now that the stories beyond the USA, Spain and Ireland are starting to surface. I was on the phone earlier today to the Gulf, and things in that formerly bulletproof region are getting truly interesting. There are widespread rumours that one of the long standing commercial banking stalwarts in the region, Gulf International Bank, is on the verge of collapse and will be bought out by the Saudi government.

Apparently the design and workmanship on the new Dubai VIP air terminal is so shoddy that none of the companies that insure private jets will allow their clients to use that hangar space. Isn't that typical in every instance, anywhere, of too much money piling into construction all at once. As I understand it, the hangar space is being used to house the ever increasing number of new cars being imported through Dubai that are no longer able to be flogged into the local market.

So much for the SWFs bailing us out. There's no place to hide this time.

That's why I think the title of this thread is a misnomer. It's not going to be restricted to "the West".

Many forget that the leaders of the US, and not the elected ones(they are CHEER leaders, not leaders), but those appointed by the oligarchs, are damn smart and are experts at creative destruction.

Turned out the great BRIC miracle via a deliberate credit bubble was a giant trap to fool stupid BRIC's into overproducing. Now, the US can exploit the deflationary spiral consuming the BRIC's to force them to increase domestic consumption and open up their markets to US banking and exports.

Let's see how 2009 unfolds, but Paulson isn't visiting the CIC every week for his good health...

[Wild Style]

Re: 2009-Year of the fall of the West

That's the most they can expect.

Given that most of those mortgages are held by foreigners in the form of securitized paper derivatives, as house prices in the US [and everywhere else] continue to deflate more and more will be written down to zero.

The extent of the worldwide real estate insanity is almost comical, now that the stories beyond the USA, Spain and Ireland are starting to surface. I was on the phone earlier today to the Gulf, and things in that formerly bulletproof region are getting truly interesting. There are widespread rumours that one of the long standing commercial banking stalwarts in the region, Gulf International Bank, is on the verge of collapse and will be bought out by the Saudi government.

Apparently the design and workmanship on the new Dubai VIP air terminal is so shoddy that none of the companies that insure private jets will allow their clients to use that hangar space. Isn't that typical in every instance, anywhere, of too much money piling into construction all at once. As I understand it, the hangar space is being used to house the ever increasing number of new cars being imported through Dubai that are no longer able to be flogged into the local market.

So much for the SWFs bailing us out. There's no place to hide this time.

That's why I think the title of this thread is a misnomer. It's not going to be restricted to "the West".

Are their any countries that are not heavily reliant on the west? Enough so that they can come out on the other side of this in a greater position than they are now?

[GRG55]

Re: 2009-Year of the fall of the West

Are their any countries that are not heavily reliant on the west? Enough so that they can come out on the other side of this in a greater position than they are now?

That was the "decoupling" argument.

Some time back my guess was that India, with its well developed internal consumer market, and relatively controlled financial system [which, so far, appears to have protected it from the worst of the ravages of the credit implosion] might have stood a chance.

But I am no longer as optimistic.

[LargoWinch]

Re: 2009-Year of the fall of the West

That's the most they can expect.

Given that most of those mortgages are held by foreigners in the form of securitized paper derivatives, as house prices in the US [and everywhere else] continue to deflate more and more will be written down to zero.

The extent of the worldwide real estate insanity is almost comical, now that the stories beyond the USA, Spain and Ireland are starting to surface. I was on the phone earlier today to the Gulf, and things in that formerly bulletproof region are getting truly interesting. There are widespread rumours that one of the long standing commercial banking stalwarts in the region, Gulf International Bank, is on the verge of collapse and will be bought out by the Saudi government.

Apparently the design and workmanship on the new Dubai VIP air terminal is so shoddy that none of the companies that insure private jets will allow their clients to use that hangar space. Isn't that typical in every instance, anywhere, of too much money piling into construction all at once. As I understand it, the hangar space is being used to house the ever increasing number of new cars being imported through Dubai that are no longer able to be flogged into the local market.

So much for the SWFs bailing us out. There's no place to hide this time.

That's why I think the title of this thread is a misnomer. It's not going to be restricted to "the West".

Gulp! where is you bunker again?

BTW, thanks for arguing against me buying a house in Toronto last year: my friend which is a RE agent told me that prices are down at least 15% in the GTA but more like 25% yoy. She also said that the bulk of the decline started in Q3 of this year.

Example at hand, this project is now cancelled:
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNew...hub=TopStories

When I find the bunker, I will put a few bills - I mean a few Maple Leafs - in the chimney...

[Wild Style]

Re: 2009-Year of the fall of the West

That was the "decoupling" argument.

Some time back my guess was that India, with its well developed internal consumer market, and relatively controlled financial system [which, so far, appears to have protected it from the worst of the ravages of the credit implosion] might have stood a chance.

But I am no longer as optimistic.

why down on India now?

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: 2009-Year of the fall of the West

Powerful stuff

Yes, indeed it is.

Could it be that Great Britain is leading the US in this financial fiasco, the canary in the mineshaft? As a resident of the US, it sure would be useful to have such a canary, offering up clues of what is to come, before it gets here. As my father thanked the gutsy Brits for their lead in World War II, and my grandfather in World War I, perhaps I should thank them for their lead here.

Economic activity seems to work best in the theoretical world in which there is a relative equality of ability to produce value. Us humans seem to be at a real loss in handing vast inequalities in productive capacity. We tend to blame this on the "science" of economics itself, calling it the dismal science. But perhaps it is the subject matter itself that is dismal.

The story of the several men of various nationalities marooned on an island comes to mind, in which one man fishes, one hunts, one cleans, one gathers firewood, one prepares the food, and the American provides the critical role of consuming the resulting feast each day. We really lack an understanding of how to productively arrange our economic affairs in the case that N people can produce all that N+M people require.

Families, with their age and (in most cultures) gender specific roles, handle this on a microeconomic level. Small cohesive communities, like tribes and animal packs, can also do well. But fair, balanced, efficient and stable economic activity on the grand scale is difficult.

As with war, the Banksters are always ready to step into the breach, offering up debt, serviced at their profit, to paper over the imbalances of production, consumption and destruction. But perhaps the Banksters are not so much to blame, as germs are not to blame for my disease, for had I watched my health better, the germs would have remained confined to places, such as my intestines, where they have a useful (to me) role.

A great role of the Churches of past centuries was that of providing charity that attempted to address these imbalances in a way deemed fair to all. A great role of modern socialist governments is to provide welfare, to the same purpose. Hopefully the religious devote of centuries past were less skeptical of the charity of their church than I am today of my governments welfare programs.

The great empires of past centuries provided one means to organize around such imbalances across borders. Foreign aid and international organizations make attempts to address international imbalances these days, but their results are pitiful.

Once again the Banksters have stepped into the breach, this time with Piles of Humongous Debt (PHDs) that would leave even the Mogambu Guru speechless.

This inability to manage inequalities in productive capacity seems to have become a more pressing issue with the intense globalization of trade and economic activity these last several decades. The rapid advances in science, technology and industry seem to present us at least as much risk as opportunity.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: 2009-Year of the fall of the West

Apparently the design and workmanship on the new Dubai VIP air terminal is so shoddy that none of the companies that insure private jets will allow their clients to use that hangar space. Isn't that typical in every instance, anywhere, of too much money piling into construction all at once. As I understand it, the hangar space is being used to house the ever increasing number of new cars being imported through Dubai that are no longer able to be flogged into the local market.

Awesome anecdote - thanks.

[GRG55]

Re: 2009-Year of the fall of the West

why down on India now?

Its dependence on export markets and foreign consumers is perhaps greater than I previously appreciated. Software & call centres get all the press but the heavy lifting in the export sector is done here:

• generic pharmaceuticals [is this really recession proof?];
• dyes, textiles, apparel and leather goods [this is a huge export sector];
• agricultural chemicals, particularly pesticides;
• gold jewelry [may remain a bright spot, depending on price of gold?];
• tea [maybe another bright spot?] and other agricultural products including cereals and fish products.

The economies in all of India's major export markets are contracting and those consumers are retrenching...a lot.

Two final points; the real estate sector experienced a bubble of sorts, in large part due to Indian expatriates funnelling money back home, and that is now deflating, and continued foreign capital inflows have likely taken a big hit in the wake of talk of war with Pakistan.

[Chris Coles]

Re: 2009-Year of the fall of the West

That's the most they can expect.

Given that most of those mortgages are held by foreigners in the form of securitized paper derivatives, as house prices in the US [and everywhere else] continue to deflate more and more will be written down to zero.

The extent of the worldwide real estate insanity is almost comical, now that the stories beyond the USA, Spain and Ireland are starting to surface. I was on the phone earlier today to the Gulf, and things in that formerly bulletproof region are getting truly interesting. There are widespread rumours that one of the long standing commercial banking stalwarts in the region, Gulf International Bank, is on the verge of collapse and will be bought out by the Saudi government.

Apparently the design and workmanship on the new Dubai VIP air terminal is so shoddy that none of the companies that insure private jets will allow their clients to use that hangar space. Isn't that typical in every instance, anywhere, of too much money piling into construction all at once. As I understand it, the hangar space is being used to house the ever increasing number of new cars being imported through Dubai that are no longer able to be flogged into the local market.

So much for the SWFs bailing us out. There's no place to hide this time.

That's why I think the title of this thread is a misnomer. It's not going to be restricted to "the West".

GRG, you have not seen anything yet. you see they bought into the idea that sea levels remain stable when they set out to create the vast seascapes starting with the Fan, then The World and now The Universe. But Scientific American has already described the potential for a sudden sea level rise of between 20 and 170 feet...

Sometime over the next decade, sea levels will start to rise much faster and at that point their "worlds" become worthless. Food for thought?

And then in trying to locate the Scientific American web page for the ice level predictions I found this report made just 9 hours ago...

http://www.sciam.com/blog/60-second-...-ye-2008-12-30

http://www.seis.utah.edu/EQCENTER/PR...s.htm#12292008

[GRG55]

Re: 2009-Year of the fall of the West

GRG, you have not seen anything yet. you see they bought into the idea that sea levels remain stable when they set out to create the vast seascapes starting with the Fan, then The World and now The Universe. But Scientific American has already described the potential for a sudden sea level rise of between 20 and 170 feet...

Sometime over the next decade, sea levels will start to rise much faster and at that point their "worlds" become worthless. Food for thought?

And then in trying to locate the Scientific American web page for the ice level predictions I found this report made just 9 hours ago...

http://www.sciam.com/blog/60-second-...-ye-2008-12-30

http://www.seis.utah.edu/EQCENTER/PR...s.htm#12292008

Chris: Your links brought back some long dormant memories. In the summer of 1959 I was a very young boy on a camping trip with my parents; a driving trip across the NW States in my Dad's 1955 Ford Customliner sedan. We were in Yellowstone Park when the Madison Canyon earthquake hit. The roads were so badly torn up that we ended up as part of a convoy led out of the park to the east by a Ranger, partly off-road cross-country. I didn't really appreciate the gravity of what had happened, so for me it was an exciting adventure. Once we were out of the park, we were so far east of our planned route my Dad decided we might as well go see Mount Rushmore.

[we_are_toast]

Re: 2009-Year of the fall of the West

We were in Yellowstone Park when the Madison Canyon earthquake hit.

:eek::eek:

The Hebgen lake earthquake was a killer! It brought down half a mountain on a campground just outside the park, killing 28 and blocking the Madison river to create quake lake. There is a really great exhibit in the new visitor center at Canyon with great displays of the geology and volcanic activity of Yellowstone. I would encourage everyone to check out one of the most fascinating places on the planet.

Chris:
But Scientific American has already described the potential for a sudden sea level rise of between 20 and 170 feet...

There is some evidence that this type of sea level rise occurred about 14,000 years ago but took several hundred years. I don't believe there are too many scientists who think the large ice shelves in the antarctic are unstable enough to cause a sudden collapse. It will probably be several decades before rising sea levels start impacting what's left of civilization. So don't be too concerned about that beach front property. The changing weather patterns that are now occurring will have already devastated agricultural economies around the world and the mass migrations of a billion or two people will contribute to the regional wars soon to be fought over water and food resources.

This disaster will be very similar to the current economic disaster. 1st a few people in the know warn and almost no one listens, then many warn and those in power deny, then the disaster begins and the deniers say it will be short, then it's too late. There are no helicopters and printing presses that will fix this one.

[Chris Coles]

Re: 2009-Year of the fall of the West

:eek::eek:

The Hebgen lake earthquake was a killer! It brought down half a mountain on a campground just outside the park, killing 28 and blocking the Madison river to create quake lake. There is a really great exhibit in the new visitor center at Canyon with great displays of the geology and volcanic activity of Yellowstone. I would encourage everyone to check out one of the most fascinating places on the planet.

There is some evidence that this type of sea level rise occurred about 14,000 years ago but took several hundred years. I don't believe there are too many scientists who think the large ice shelves in the antarctic are unstable enough to cause a sudden collapse. It will probably be several decades before rising sea levels start impacting what's left of civilization. So don't be too concerned about that beach front property. The changing weather patterns that are now occurring will have already devastated agricultural economies around the world and the mass migrations of a billion or two people will contribute to the regional wars soon to be fought over water and food resources.

This disaster will be very similar to the current economic disaster. 1st a few people in the know warn and almost no one listens, then many warn and those in power deny, then the disaster begins and the deniers say it will be short, then it's too late. There are no helicopters and printing presses that will fix this one.

With the greatest of respects, you should sit down and read this report from Scientific American's February issue.

http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=the-unquiet-ice

Unquiet Ice Speaks Volumes on Global Warming

Abundant liquid water newly discovered underneath the world's great ice sheets could intensify the destabilizing effects of global warming on the sheets. Then, even without melting, the sheets may slide into the sea and raise sea level catastrophically

By Robin Bell

[due_indigence]

Re: 2009-Year of the fall of the West

If the Illuminati are in charge, they should be fired for rank incompetence. If the Illuminati are not in charge can we hire them? I'm thinking an orchestrated conspiracy looks better than unorchestrated chaos. I saw a chart somewhere of a $60 trillion loss in value across the entire globe, all asset classes. Seems a bit high. There are no earthly beneficiaries. Which brings me to the Martians. Or maybe the Rothschilds who I believe logged a positive earnings last quarter if I'm not mistaken. I get my conspiracies confused. Are they Rosacrucians, Illuminati or Rotary Club members?