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Russian oligarchs being squeezed. Next Generation?

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  • Russian oligarchs being squeezed. Next Generation?

    As I've noted before - whether by plan or opportunism, the latest crisis is being used to squeeze the existing crop of oligarchs.

    The real question is just how much of Russia's economy is dependent on the oligarch's pyramidal empires?

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1229...fox_australian

    Mr. Deripaska, in his first interview since the global credit crunch took hold in Russia this fall, said he is peddling stakes in just about everything he owns to pay off his crushing debts. People close to Rusal, the crown jewel, say talks include Chinese as well as Western investors, who would take equity stakes in return for helping to pay down Rusal's $14 billion debt.

    "Naturally the situation is difficult. If it were easy, we wouldn't have kept you waiting until midnight," the 40-year-old billionaire, his eyes tinged red with fatigue, told a visiting reporter. "We're confident there's always a reasonable solution. The question is how big the losses are." He acknowledged they would be "in the billions."

    Like Russia's other industrial tycoons who flooded the world's rich lists in the past few years, Mr. Deripaska borrowed heavily to gain control over his sprawling holdings. The oligarchs, as they are known in Russia, rode surging world prices for oil, metals and other commodities to snap up assets in Russia and abroad. Now the torrent of revenue has slowed to a trickle, the rivers of easy foreign credit have dried up and the debts are coming due. As the Kremlin steps in with bailouts, many business leaders and bankers fear companies will be renationalized.

    No oligarchs have revealed their finances publicly, but Russian and Western bankers say Mr. Deripaska is one of the most exposed, with billions of dollars in borrowed money against assets valued at more than $20 billion at their peak. Last month, Rusal took the single largest loan in Moscow's bailout program -- $4.5 billion -- to avoid losing a stake in a big local nickel producer to Western creditors.

    Before that deal, Mr. Deripaska lost two other foreign holdings to lenders. He is in talks to sell control of his bank, as well as other assets. He says he hopes to have new investors in practically all his companies, including Rusal, by the end of March.

    Mr. Deripaska wouldn't comment further on the Rusal talks, which still are preliminary and might not result in a deal. "He's talking to everyone he can," says a person close to the company. Failure could force Rusal to go directly to the Kremlin for more financing, people close to Rusal say.
    As oligarchs' empires wobble, decisions about who gets to keep control of which company, and on what terms, are increasingly made by the Kremlin. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is chairman of the state bank that has become the lender of last resort for the debt-laden tycoons, offering billions in bailouts but demanding the tycoons put up their assets as collateral. Many business leaders suspect the deals are really stealthy takeover bids.

    "It's not clear this is help for the oligarchs," says Alexander Shokhin, head of Russia's main business association.

    Kremlin officials deny they plan to nationalize companies they bail out.
    Foreign banks, meanwhile, are in a bind. Under enormous financial pressure, they have little room to make concessions to troubled borrowers like Mr. Deripaska. In the U.K., lenders -- some now partly state-owned -- also are under political pressure not to be seen doing any favors for a foreign tycoon, especially after Mr. Deripaska was caught up in controversy this fall involving meetings he had with an official in Prime Minister Gordon Brown's government.

  • #2
    Re: Russian oligarchs being squeezed. Next Generation?

    The Russian oligarchs may have not been the most likable or honorable people in the world but their business instincts are better than Mr. Putins.

    Putin's form of governance is putting a severe chill on the Russian economy and any sense of innovation in the business and scientific communities have been snuffed out. Combined with plummeting demographics, Russia is basically dying. Sadly, Russia is too xenophobic to allow mass immigration. Really, the only thing that can save them now.

    Yes, they can continue to make trouble for the west with their current policies like supporting separatist groups in countries friendly to America, arming Iran and Venezuela, supporting Afghan rebels and using energy as a weapon but dying they are.

    They have a role as a commodities exporter but you can really take the R out of BRIC and just make it plain ol' BIC.
    Greg

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    • #3
      Re: Russian oligarchs being squeezed. Next Generation?

      Greg,

      Not sure how you can say Russian oligarch's have better business instincts.

      Deripaska used $20B in RusAl value to borrow $14B. Now that the commodity bubble popped, he's getting margin called to death.

      How is that different than any other leveraged buyout in the West?

      And is that an example of 'good business'?

      This is all ignoring the stealing control to begin with. You might say the Russian oligarchs were to proto Wall Streeters: build/buy a bank, bribe the government to put its cash there, use cash to buy former state companies, repeat.

      Again, another good example of 'good business'?

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      • #4
        Re: Russian oligarchs being squeezed. Next Generation?

        hmmm, excellent point. The key to being a good businessman is building a sustainable model. The oligarchs obviously didn't do that. Maybe the Russian culture is incapable of creating such individuals, either in business or government.
        Greg

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        • #5
          Re: Russian oligarchs being squeezed. Next Generation?

          Greg,

          I think the jury is still out on that.

          Clearly the oligarchs we see today are those who excelled in the double or nothing, brown bag cash to bureaucrats, balls to the wall style of business building.

          On the other hand, the factories going up in St. Petersburg are something which will provide both jobs and skills for some time into the future.

          As I noted in the title - the present generation is getting nibbled to death by banksters. The Russian government is clearly monitoring the situation and picking off pieces which they feel should not be repossessed by foreign banksters.

          The $64,000 question is whether there is a coherent plan to exit the present dilemma (low oil prices + high internal inflation + deleveraging corporate credit).

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          • #6
            Re: Russian oligarchs being squeezed. Next Generation?

            I can answer the $64,000 question only by looking at the larger cultural and demographic issues controlling their fate.

            Russia has never nurtured a merchant class that was innovative and free of restraint from the ruling political class. The businessmen and scientists were usually operating under the thumb of the czars and commissars. After the fall of the Soviet Union a merchant (robber?)class rose to grab the goods being de-nationalized.

            To the discredit of Yeltsin and the west, there was no serious effort to manage the process in a fair and sustainable way. Like a street battle between opposing gangs, the oligarchs had to fight it out on the streets and when the dust settled, the survivors got their billions. The question which we will never really be able to answer is would have succeeding generations of oligarchs become more modern and benevolent managers.

            Given that the scions of various other kleptocracies around the world and throughout history attend universities, modernize their cultures and try to put a sheen on the criminal activities of their ancestors the answer is a qualified "maybe".

            Now, a moot point since the anti oligarch backlash occurred and Putin snuffed out their ambitions. Russia is dying demographically. Many of their key scientists from the Soviet era are retiring and dying without being replaced by the young. what few scientists are being trained don't have mentors and on many projects are essentially re-inventing the wheel. This is not the first time the Russian government has made promises to create an emerging merchant class only to pull the rug out later. Witness the fate of German immigrants into Russia in the 1700's. Enticed by Catherine to rejuevenate the moribund russian economy, they were immediately successful but after a while, locals envious of their success sabotaged their efforts and lobbied to have them ousted. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History...e_Soviet_Union

            I can't answer your question as to how much of the Russian economy is dependent of the oligarchs but can they exit their current dilemma? Doubtful, in my mind, given their long history of being unable to truly innovate their way into the future.
            Last edited by BiscayneSunrise; December 24, 2008, 02:26 PM.
            Greg

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