The Dead Pool

[santafe2]

Re: The Dead Pool

That being said it would be interesting to see their reasoning that less money spent equates to less music purchased....

I found this article enlightening. Artists were trying to get their royalty raised from 9.1 cents. 9.1 cents! Music publishers get 70 cents per song sold on iTunes, (from which the 9.1 cents is removed). Apple gets 29 cents. There is a lot of room in this equation for a more efficient delivery system.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-10056852-93.html

[c1ue]

Re: The Dead Pool

Santafe,

No worries.

But I still point out that while RIAA is odious, they are no more odious than patent troll companies (a la John Krieg's GateTech in John Barnes' 'Mother of Storms'), or Rambus in computer memory, or Qualcomm in cell phones, or cybersquatters in domain names, or N-Data in Ethernet.

The issue ultimately is that while the benefits of a patent/copyright system are increased willingness to share information due to the ability to reap benefits from your protected intellectual property, the downside is that lawyers are also perfectly capable of exploiting this property to extract economic rent.

This is a modern version of owning the land.

I'm not sure if there is a solution to this problem, but I suspect a significant part of any such solution involves the separation of corporations from ownership of patents and copyrights. It is the essentially undying nature of the corporation combined with the corporation's ability to concentrate of forces which make the present IP protection scheme unworkable.

Already in the semiconductor industry, it is far better to not patent than it is to patent; the goal is generally to start patenting once it is clear your competition is catching up rather than at the beginning because of patent troll issues.

So, while the music industry - and its executives/sales/marketing people - are significant leeches on artists, so again the useful function they do perform (i.e. recognition/dissemination of music art) is easily corrupted into monopolistic harvesting of the customer base.

As for those who say artists are being taken advantage of, this is also not necessarily true.

An interesting article on the business behind music - can't say how true it is but it does give a flavor on what we outside the business likely cannot see:

http://entertainment.howstuffworks.c...royalties6.htm

[Guinnesstime]

Re: The Dead Pool

Santafe,

No worries.

But I still point out that while RIAA is odious, they are no more odious than patent troll companies (a la John Krieg's GateTech in John Barnes' 'Mother of Storms'), or Rambus in computer memory, or Qualcomm in cell phones, or cybersquatters in domain names, or N-Data in Ethernet.

The issue ultimately is that while the benefits of a patent/copyright system are increased willingness to share information due to the ability to reap benefits from your protected intellectual property, the downside is that lawyers are also perfectly capable of exploiting this property to extract economic rent.

This is a modern version of owning the land.

I'm not sure if there is a solution to this problem, but I suspect a significant part of any such solution involves the separation of corporations from ownership of patents and copyrights. It is the essentially undying nature of the corporation combined with the corporation's ability to concentrate of forces which make the present IP protection scheme unworkable.

Already in the semiconductor industry, it is far better to not patent than it is to patent; the goal is generally to start patenting once it is clear your competition is catching up rather than at the beginning because of patent troll issues.

So, while the music industry - and its executives/sales/marketing people - are significant leeches on artists, so again the useful function they do perform (i.e. recognition/dissemination of music art) is easily corrupted into monopolistic harvesting of the customer base.

As for those who say artists are being taken advantage of, this is also not necessarily true.

An interesting article on the business behind music - can't say how true it is but it does give a flavor on what we outside the business likely cannot see:

http://entertainment.howstuffworks.c...royalties6.htm

If you want to go into more detail about the nuts and bolts of the music industry check out this book. http://www.amazon.com/Need-Know-Abou.../dp/0743293185

I would say that artists are being taken advantage of, but I hope for most artists its knowingly.
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The article that you link to seems pretty accurate to me, but I am not sure about how bargaining power is represented.
I hope things like P2P, apple, internet, tech etc. will continue to shakedown the music industry. While it the industry claims that this stuff has hurt it I feel that its only the ancient giants that are hurt the most. All this tech has provided the small fry more opportunities to be very successful on a small scale. Musicians are changing as well. They have to be very versatile in that they must play well, be aggressive promoters/marketers, know the tech to run the websites, have some knowledge of audio recording/production. I know a few musicians who have day jobs to fill in the gaps or get the bene's. Even though they will never be a Metallica or a Kayne West they are able to be seen and earn an income that puts food on the table.

So its bad for the Big stiff music giants and good for the flexible versatile indie labels and indie musicians.

[DemonD]

Re: The Dead Pool

Regarding the music industry, I watched a panel in 2003 that was discussing this. This issue has been around, and it's not going away.

As for me, I'm 31. I've paid for music 3 times in the past 10 years. And I constantly listen to music, pretty much all the time when I'm not at work. Take that however you will.

C1ue, I think you make a good point, I would just add though that they sped up a process that has been going on. They were smart enough to figure out how to do it first, and best, and they have profited handsomely on it. Then they also realized that cellphones were going to encroach on the ipod hegemony, and they beat everyone to the punch on that too.

In the next 2 years I believe we will be seeing cellphones with 80-160Gig of memory and touch screens. This has not only revolutionized how we use cell phones and music, but Apple, RIMM, and Google with their Android consortium are revolutionizing personal computing.

That's right, personal computing.

Here is another prediction: Watch for laptop sales to drop, precipitiously. Something that many people I feel have been clamoring for is what is calling a "palm top" or a "hand-top" which is a little mini computer about the size of a Nintendo DS. I saw one a gentleman had brought from Korea, it was running full Windows XP. Looked great too. With the advent of iphone and 32gig micro sd, it is now far beyond obsolete.

The problem the RIAA has is that tech moves fast, and they are in an old-guard mindset. Apple gets this, and so does google, which is why they have done so well. They are one step ahead of everyone else in the evolution of tech. Back to the panel I watched, one of the things that came out of it is that total spending on music continues to increase, when you take into account merchandising and concerts.

My opinion? The rich white men in ivory towers got really rich off of a business model which was good for 50 years, and they are doing everything they can in vain to keep that model, while in reality it's dead.

C1ue, I think you also brought up a good point about intellectual property. Music is small and easy to download. But bands can go on tours and generate huge revenues. Movies, and other visual media, however, can't, and that's where I think the issue gets sticky, because if people stop going to movies or buying dvd's (which they probably will now with bittorrent), it's going to be difficult for moviemakers to keep up revenue streams.

The original post title said dead pool, and in a real dead pool you pick 10 people to die in a calendar year, so here are my 10 companies who i feel will die (by ticker)

GM
SPF
HOV
PHM
BZH
UAUA
EWBC
BAC
FITB
SHLD

[swgprop]

Re: The Dead Pool

DemonD's list for easier reference ... several good bets here.

			Last	Previous Close
General Motors Corp	Chart	News	3.53	3.8
Standard Pacific Corp	Chart	News	1.75	1.65
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc	Chart	News	1.59	1.64
Pulte Homes Inc	Chart	News	10.93	10.6
Beazer Homes USA Inc	Chart	News	1.35	1.38
UAL Corp	Chart	News	10.74	10.74
East West Bancorp Inc	Chart	News	15.68	14.77
Bank of America Corp	Chart	News	13.42	13.24
Fifth Third Bancorp	Chart	News	8.06	7.97
Sears Holdings Corp	Chart	News	39.18	37.45

[ax]

Re: The Dead Pool

Of course, but do you have a TI99 sitting in your garage?

I don't but, there is a Coleco Adam, a Commodore 128 and an Amiga 500 in there somewhere.

Commodore 128? When did they come out with that? And I thought my Commodore 64 was cool...

[rchdenton]

Re: The Dead Pool

To me the Amiga was the pinnacle of computing, nothing since has been any where near as much fun.

[rchdenton]

Re: The Dead Pool

Surely the natural result of technology is deflation - you get more for less, isn't the music industry just an example of this?

[D-Mack]

Re: The Dead Pool

To me the Amiga was the pinnacle of computing, nothing since has been any where near as much fun.

I remember playing Monkey Island 2 on more than 10 disks and the constant changing....:mad:

[Guinnesstime]

Re: The Dead Pool

Regarding the music industry, I watched a panel in 2003 that was discussing this. This issue has been around, and it's not going away.

As for me, I'm 31. I've paid for music 3 times in the past 10 years. And I constantly listen to music, pretty much all the time when I'm not at work. Take that however you will.

C1ue, I think you make a good point, I would just add though that they sped up a process that has been going on. They were smart enough to figure out how to do it first, and best, and they have profited handsomely on it. Then they also realized that cellphones were going to encroach on the ipod hegemony, and they beat everyone to the punch on that too.

In the next 2 years I believe we will be seeing cellphones with 80-160Gig of memory and touch screens. This has not only revolutionized how we use cell phones and music, but Apple, RIMM, and Google with their Android consortium are revolutionizing personal computing.

That's right, personal computing.

Here is another prediction: Watch for laptop sales to drop, precipitiously. Something that many people I feel have been clamoring for is what is calling a "palm top" or a "hand-top" which is a little mini computer about the size of a Nintendo DS. I saw one a gentleman had brought from Korea, it was running full Windows XP. Looked great too. With the advent of iphone and 32gig micro sd, it is now far beyond obsolete.

The problem the RIAA has is that tech moves fast, and they are in an old-guard mindset. Apple gets this, and so does google, which is why they have done so well. They are one step ahead of everyone else in the evolution of tech. Back to the panel I watched, one of the things that came out of it is that total spending on music continues to increase, when you take into account merchandising and concerts.

My opinion? The rich white men in ivory towers got really rich off of a business model which was good for 50 years, and they are doing everything they can in vain to keep that model, while in reality it's dead.

C1ue, I think you also brought up a good point about intellectual property. Music is small and easy to download. But bands can go on tours and generate huge revenues. Movies, and other visual media, however, can't, and that's where I think the issue gets sticky, because if people stop going to movies or buying dvd's (which they probably will now with bittorrent), it's going to be difficult for moviemakers to keep up revenue streams.

The original post title said dead pool, and in a real dead pool you pick 10 people to die in a calendar year, so here are my 10 companies who i feel will die (by ticker)

GM
SPF
HOV
PHM
BZH
UAUA
EWBC
BAC
FITB
SHLD

Hey DemonD,

I was thinking about the movie part of your post and what do you think will be the future of the DVD? Personally I think the DVD and the Blue Ray and any other equivalent will eventually disappear to make way for streaming movies, tv, HD. Stuff like what Netflix does. Who knows maybe in the future theatres will be a thing of the past when people all around the world can watch the premiere of some movie from there homes.... maybe a subscription service with a monthly fee to do so???

[JayS]

Re: The Dead Pool

Personally I think the DVD and the Blue Ray and any other equivalent will eventually disappear to make way for streaming movies, tv, HD. Stuff like what Netflix does. Who knows maybe in the future theatres will be a thing of the past when people all around the world can watch the premiere of some movie from there homes.... maybe a subscription service with a monthly fee to do so???

You can already watch a lot of feature films and TV episodes legally and for free via hulu.com. It's an ad-sponsored service, so there are periodic "commercials". The quality is really not that bad either - slightly less than DVD quality if you pick the 480p option. If you have a 2.5Gb/s or better internet connection, they also steam a few 720p HD TV shows.

I agree with you on the future of physical media. It may not be 2009, but the optical disc will die. There are some pretty funny videos of Seagate (the hard drive mfg) CEO Bill Watkins proclaiming the death of Blu Ray - here's one:
http://blog.wired.com/business/2008/...video-sea.html

[santafe2]

Re: The Dead Pool

Surely the natural result of technology is deflation - you get more for less, isn't the music industry just an example of this?

Deflation is an economic phenomenon. Less expensive technology does not promote deflation, it steels the economy against it. This is an important distinction. Think of technology falling in price as an increase in productivity.

[c1ue]

Re: The Dead Pool

The problem the RIAA has is that tech moves fast, and they are in an old-guard mindset. Apple gets this, and so does google, which is why they have done so well. They are one step ahead of everyone else in the evolution of tech. Back to the panel I watched, one of the things that came out of it is that total spending on music continues to increase, when you take into account merchandising and concerts.

DD,

I'd bet $100 that this trend fails to continue. After all, the past 10 years of economic boom is not going to be predictive of the next 3-4 (or more) years of significant recession.

C1ue, I think you also brought up a good point about intellectual property. Music is small and easy to download. But bands can go on tours and generate huge revenues. Movies, and other visual media, however, can't, and that's where I think the issue gets sticky, because if people stop going to movies or buying dvd's (which they probably will now with bittorrent), it's going to be difficult for moviemakers to keep up revenue streams.

Popular (and old) bands can tour and generate huge revenues. Few others can - hence why even the largest alternative bands must group up to pull off concerts.

However, on the video side the interesting situation is that the data volume is such that only relatively recently has download been feasible except for the most hard core downloaders.

A decent resolution movie (i.e. DVD) is around a gigabyte. Jump this up to 720p or 1080p, and it becomes much much larger. As you noted, since MP3's and iTune rips are small, it is really tough to track. But passing a law requiring ISPs to track 1 Gigabyte file downloads...that is both feasible and fruitful. Combine that with a hunter-seeker group going after BitTorrent download sites, well, you get the picture.

The original post title said dead pool, and in a real dead pool you pick 10 people to die in a calendar year, so here are my 10 companies who i feel will die (by ticker)

Most of the 10 companies you've listed are either already being bailed out or will be in the next 6 months. For a truly dead pool, I'd look more to the retailers.

[Slimprofits]

Re: The Dead Pool

Commodore 128? When did they come out with that? And I thought my Commodore 64 was cool...

I don't remember exactly, but the Wikipedia entry says Jan. of 1985. It was like the C64, but the keyboard was separate from the CPU, more memory, etc.

[Slimprofits]

Re: The Dead Pool

Secaucus-based Children's Place plans to shutter stores, joining Staples, RadioShack

The Children's Place, the Secaucus-based retailer of children’s active wear, said today it plans to close 30 stores this year as part of a plan to shutter 125 underperforming locations through 2016.

The company also issued a cautious 2014 forecast, in part due to the bitter winter. Its shares sank.

Of the 125 stores Children's Place said were targeted for closure, 41 were closed last year, the company said in a release about its fourth-quarter and fiscal 2013 results. Twenty-three of those closures came during the fourth quarter. The release doesn't say where those locations were.

The news comes as two other retailers, RadioShack and Staples, have announced plans to close hundreds of locations amid declining sales. Staples said today it would shut 225 stores, while RadioShack said it eyed as many as 1,100 for closure.