The Dead Pool

[ST]

Re: The Dead Pool

We have been long fans of Apple. The company's key differentiating strength -- integrated OS and hardware for high reliability and quality user interface -- were a hazard during the corporate PC boom but a boon during the consumer electronics boom.

That said, the consumer boom is over for a while. In what future markets will tight OS/hardware integration pay off?

Military? :eek:

There is interesting potential for Apple and this area is one which I plan on keeping an eye on wrt Apple.

Apple Goes To War (This Time Not With Microsoft)

By Mark Wilson, 4:30 PM on Sat May 17 2008, 35,081 views
When Apple purchased chip manufacturer P.A. Semi, the Department of Defense was worried. Why? P.A. Semi manufactures chips for ten different military systems, and has $100 million in deals with the DoD over the next four years. And the DoD never expected Apple to keep supporting the sweet, deadly chips.
But they were wrong.
According to The Register, while Apple does not plan to continue modifying/improving P.A. Semi's PowerPC-based processor architecture, Apple has employed a number of veteran P.A. Semi staff members just for the task of supplying the current chips for years to come.
To us, it seems pretty logical, as if Apple is simply honoring the existing contracts/promises of P.A. Semi. Then again, it's just such a strange move from such a painstakingly marketed company—Apple and the military certainly make for strange bedfellows. More on this point from The Register:

While the information is limited at this point, we believe the military interest in PA Semi's low-power chip may have forced Apple's hand here. Uncle Sam hates to design new missiles only to have the guts ripped out by some dude in a mock turtleneck.

[rachits]

Re: The Dead Pool

A simple mathematic analysis of the number of iTunes sold vs. number of iPods sold yields something like 93% of all music on iPods is technically illegal.

http://www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com/id227.html

So, where else is there a sucker industry willing to accelerate its own decline for Apple's benefit?

The article linked had a couple HUGE flaws in assumptions.

First of all it assumes that all music not downloaded from iTunes is illegal. Most people have existing legal CDs purchased from the store that they legally uploaded into thier iPods.

Secondly it assumes that the legally purchased iTunes music could only be uploaded onto one device. The iPod has been around long enough that people have bought multiple different versions. Between my wife and I we have 5 (only really use 3 of them now).

[santafe2]

Re: The Dead Pool

The article linked had a couple HUGE flaws in assumptions.

First of all it assumes that all music not downloaded from iTunes is illegal. Most people have existing legal CDs purchased from the store that they legally uploaded into thier iPods.

Secondly it assumes that the legally purchased iTunes music could only be uploaded onto one device. The iPod has been around long enough that people have bought multiple different versions. Between my wife and I we have 5 (only really use 3 of them now).

While I'm too old to offer a good example of the iTunes generation, we've several teenagers in our immediate family. They share music among themselves, their friends and their parents, but between iTunes purchases, gift cards and old school hard copy purchases, they buy at least as much music as we did 20 years ago. They do have many more choices as they share their music but I'd be very surprised if they purchase less music than we did.

I've no problem with iTunes. They make it easy to own songs you want to own and allow the sharing of each purchased song with several friends. I'm a generation away from the target audience but I find it a great way to own my music.

[c1ue]

Re: The Dead Pool

While I'm too old to offer a good example of the iTunes generation, we've several teenagers in our immediate family. They share music among themselves, their friends and their parents, but between iTunes purchases, gift cards and old school hard copy purchases, they buy at least as much music as we did 20 years ago. They do have many more choices as they share their music but I'd be very surprised if they purchase less music than we did.

I've no problem with iTunes. They make it easy to own songs you want to own and allow the sharing of each purchased song with several friends. I'm a generation away from the target audience but I find it a great way to own my music.

The music industry numbers do not correlate with your assertion - besides which technically sharing between people is a violation of RIAA.

Regardless, if indeed the children of today are truly spending as much per person as 20 years ago, then why have record sales been declining every year since the iPod came out in 2001?

http://www.rollingstone.com/news/sto...ustrys_decline

15138011-15138022-large.jpg

http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/...-the-tune.html

CD sales have long been falling, down as much as 40 percent in the past seven years, taking the ground out from under record labels. But they held on, hoping tightly controlled online sales would save them. Now the growth of digital downloads has slowed.

Now let's compare to iPod sales:

599px-Ipod_sales_svg.png

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ipod_sales.svg

Some other data points:

http://online.wsj.com/public/article..._20080320.html

In a dramatic acceleration of the seven-year sales decline that has battered the music industry, compact-disc sales for the first three months of this year plunged 20% from a year earlier, the latest sign of the seismic shift in the way consumers acquire music.

The sharp slide in sales of CDs, which still account for more than 85% of music sold, has far eclipsed the growth in sales of digital downloads, which were supposed to have been the industry's salvation.

The slide stems from the confluence of long-simmering factors that are now feeding off each other, including the demise of specialty music retailers like longtime music mecca Tower Records. About 800 music stores, including Tower's 89 locations, closed in 2006 alone.

Apple Inc.'s sale of around 100 million iPods shows that music remains a powerful force in the lives of consumers. But because of the Internet, those consumers have more ways to obtain music now than they did a decade ago, when walking into a store and buying it was the only option.
Today, popular songs and albums -- and countless lesser-known works -- can be easily found online, in either legal or pirated forms. While the music industry hopes that those songs will be purchased through legal services like Apple's iTunes Store, consumers can often listen to them on MySpace pages or download them free from other sources, such as so-called MP3 blogs.

As for the 20 years:

1962 album sales: 687M

http://historicaltextarchive.com/sec...icle&artid=615

2000 album sales: 785M

(From Rolling Stone article above)

2005 album sales: 618.7M

http://www.usatoday.com/life/music/n...les-main_x.htm

2006 album sales: 588M

(From Rolling Stone article above)

Population of US in 1962: 185.7M

Population of US in 2007: 301.6M

I think the vampiric impact of the iPod on the music industry is quite obvious.

So, while Apple may SAY that the majority of its users are legally downloading songs into their iPods, the facts of the matter are clear that this is not true.

Sure, the iPod is not the only reason; MySpace, Facebook, and so forth are also guilty as additional means of passing data.

But none of this would matter much if Apple had not streamlined the ability to pass and use music using a digital format and digital play platform.

After all, how likely is it that the Zune or whatever else would have turbo-slammed digital music players into the collective consciousness? It likely would have happened over time, but it was not like there were not already many ways of playing music in a portable device.

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for digital technology.

But I recognize what Apple really did - and it wasn't altruism.

The article linked had a couple HUGE flaws in assumptions.

First of all it assumes that all music not downloaded from iTunes is illegal. Most people have existing legal CDs purchased from the store that they legally uploaded into thier iPods.

Secondly it assumes that the legally purchased iTunes music could only be uploaded onto one device. The iPod has been around long enough that people have bought multiple different versions. Between my wife and I we have 5 (only really use 3 of them now).

The article assumed nothing. What it pointed out is how likely is it that the 93% of all non-iTunes music on iPods is all legal.

Secondly RIAA expressly forbids SHARING of music. Technically if you buy a record for your own use and play it on a stereo system, no problem. But if you buy a record, rip it, and share it with your entire family - not so good. After all, what happens when your kids move out? Are they going to run out and buy an album? I think not. You've just illustrated one of the ways digital technology reduces potential revenue from a music industry perspective.

And what's to stop relatives NOT living in your home from also using your records? Friends?

It is a mere hop from there to music sharing blogs.

As I said before, I have no issue with digital technology. Great stuff.

But please don't pretend that nothing funny is going on.

If the music industry were smart, they'd treat digital technology like the way the US treats Marijuana: growing MJ is illegal, having MJ is illegal, etc etc.

After all, the first digital copy of anything is exactly like a seed - it can then reproduce infinitely. The DEA attacks this by making possession illegal - also paraphernalia.

[D-Mack]

Re: The Dead Pool

The music industry numbers do not correlate with your assertion - besides which technically sharing between people is a violation of RIAA.

Regardless, if indeed the children of today are truly spending as much per person as 20 years ago, then why have record sales been declining every year since the iPod came out in 2001?

http://www.rollingstone.com/news/sto...ustrys_decline

[ATTACH]919[/ATTACH]

http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/...-the-tune.html



Now let's compare to iPod sales:

[ATTACH]920[/ATTACH]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ipod_sales.svg

Some other data points:

http://online.wsj.com/public/article..._20080320.html



As for the 20 years:

1962 album sales: 687M

http://historicaltextarchive.com/sec...icle&artid=615

2000 album sales: 785M

(From Rolling Stone article above)

2005 album sales: 618.7M

http://www.usatoday.com/life/music/n...les-main_x.htm

2006 album sales: 588M

(From Rolling Stone article above)

Population of US in 1962: 185.7M

Population of US in 2007: 301.6M

I think the vampiric impact of the iPod on the music industry is quite obvious.

So, while Apple may SAY that the majority of its users are legally downloading songs into their iPods, the facts of the matter are clear that this is not true.

Sure, the iPod is not the only reason; MySpace, Facebook, and so forth are also guilty as additional means of passing data.

But none of this would matter much if Apple had not streamlined the ability to pass and use music using a digital format and digital play platform.

After all, how likely is it that the Zune or whatever else would have turbo-slammed digital music players into the collective consciousness? It likely would have happened over time, but it was not like there were not already many ways of playing music in a portable device.

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for digital technology.

But I recognize what Apple really did - and it wasn't altruism.



The article assumed nothing. What it pointed out is how likely is it that the 93% of all non-iTunes music on iPods is all legal.

Secondly RIAA expressly forbids SHARING of music. Technically if you buy a record for your own use and play it on a stereo system, no problem. But if you buy a record, rip it, and share it with your entire family - not so good. After all, what happens when your kids move out? Are they going to run out and buy an album? I think not. You've just illustrated one of the ways digital technology reduces potential revenue from a music industry perspective.

And what's to stop relatives NOT living in your home from also using your records? Friends?

It is a mere hop from there to music sharing blogs.

As I said before, I have no issue with digital technology. Great stuff.

But please don't pretend that nothing funny is going on.

If the music industry were smart, they'd treat digital technology like the way the US treats Marijuana: growing MJ is illegal, having MJ is illegal, etc etc.

After all, the first digital copy of anything is exactly like a seed - it can then reproduce infinitely. The DEA attacks this by making possession illegal - also paraphernalia.

Are analog copies legal in the US? As far as I know it's legal to record it that way here in Germany.
Like it was done via casette sharing in the 80's, I have a couple of mp3's converted from LP, for example.


I think Apple had nothing to do with the rise of illegal filesharing. In my opinion it was the rise of broadband and programs like Napster and later Bittorrent

In November 1997, the website mp3.com was offering thousands of mp3s for free.[18] The small size of MP3 files enabled widespread peer-to-peer file sharing of music ripped from compact discs, which would have previously been nearly impossible. The first large peer-to-peer filesharing network, Napster, was launched in 1999.

The ease of creating and sharing MP3s resulted in widespread copyright infringement. Major record companies argue that this free sharing of music reduces sales, and call it "music piracy". They reacted by pursuing lawsuits against Napster (which was eventually shut down) and eventually against individual users who engaged in file sharing.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MP3

P2P apps are popular around the globe, even in regions where Internet access speeds are low. New research from German deep packet inspection gear maker ipoque shows that in places like Eastern Europe, P2P apps can account for an astonishing 95 percent of all nighttime traffic. The survey also found that one particular peer-to-peer app, Skype, is also single-handedly responsible for 95 percent of all Internet telephony.

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post...bandwidth.html

[Jay]

Re: The Dead Pool

did you see this?

In the U.S. I can't imagine Crocs, Inc. (CROX) or Radio Shack (RSH) surviving this downturn. How the heck did Radio Shack survive the Tandy brand? And Radio Shack sells in shopping Malls vastly overpriced audio, video and computer equipment that should be purchased online.

They do also offer the service of super geeky teen workers who can answer any home electronics questions the average joe is interested in. J6P wants a person in the flesh, not web site or chat room advice. I don't know if Radio Shack will go under, but this person-to-person service is definitely part of the reason they have survived so far.

[ansar1013]

Re: The Dead Pool

What is your thoughts in putting money in a AIG account? Feedback appreciated.

[Slimprofits]

Re: The Dead Pool

They do also offer the service of super geeky teen workers who can answer any home electronics questions the average joe is interested in. J6P wants a person in the flesh, not web site or chat room advice. I don't know if Radio Shack will go under, but this person-to-person service is definitely part of the reason they have survived so far.

In my experience over the last few years, the employees at various RS stores in Massachusetts and Northern California have been the complete opposite of helpful.

[roxtar]

Re: The Dead Pool

but this person-to-person service is definitely part of the reason they have survived so far.

Last time I was in Radio Shack they didn't have what I was looking for. The kid behind the counter asked what the particular item (certain type of coaxial cable that I only needed a few feet of, as opposed to the 100 foot lengths you have to buy online) was used for and I told him it was used in ham radio applications. I kid you not, he asked me what ham radio was! So much for person-to-person "service".
I know nothing of Radio Shack's financial health as a company, but if I had to pick a company to go under based solely on avg. customer experience and ability to offer quality products at competitive prices, Radio Shack would be near the top of my list. They've gone from an electronic hobbyist's playground to nothing more than a cell phone store that also sells digital photo frames.

[GRG55]

Re: The Dead Pool

Last time I was in Radio Shack they didn't have what I was looking for. The kid behind the counter asked what the particular item (certain type of coaxial cable that I only needed a few feet of, as opposed to the 100 foot lengths you have to buy online) was used for and I told him it was used in ham radio applications. I kid you not, he asked me what ham radio was! So much for person-to-person "service".
I know nothing of Radio Shack's financial health as a company, but if I had to pick a company to go under based solely on avg. customer experience and ability to offer quality products at competitive prices, Radio Shack would be near the top of my list. They've gone from an electronic hobbyist's playground to nothing more than a cell phone store that also sells digital photo frames.

Wow. What a fall from grace. I remember looking through my Dad's Allied Radio catalogues in the 1960s in his shack, where he taught me how to solder, and forced me to learn & practice the Morse Code on a home-made device he rigged up out of his parts bin.

[roxtar]

Re: The Dead Pool

Wow. What a fall from grace. I remember looking through my Dad's Allied Radio catalogues in the 1960s in his shack, where he taught me how to solder, and forced me to learn & practice the Morse Code on a home-made device he rigged up out of his parts bin.

Meh, unfortunately I think that the entire world of ham radio has fallen from grace for the most part, largely because of the internet.
Code is no longer required to get a license (rightfully so IMO) but that still hasn't done anything to attract new blood into the hobby. Most of the hams that I associate with are in their 70's; after they go there's not going to be anyone to replace them.
I probably shouldn't be all that surprised to find a member of the 18 - 25 demographic that doesn't know what ham radio is. It just seems to me that one ought to know what it is in order to get a job at Radio Shack.

[pwcmba]

Re: The Dead Pool

http://tinyurl.com/6v5d45

High speed rail would address this regional need to move people quickly and could be used to move some freight quickly too.

http://cahsr.blogspot.com/2008/12/high-speed-cargo.html

Regional plans for HSR:

http://www.fra.dot.gov/us/content/203

Maybe with investment we can get the USA back to 1966 level of technology:

http://www.midwesthsr.org/pdfs/M-497online.pdf

from page 18 a letter dated July 26,1966

"...a new U.S. rail speed record of 183.85 miles per hour..."

[Jay]

Re: The Dead Pool

I'm sure ham radio is a great hobby, but I think what J6P wants is advice on cell phone do-dads and the like, which is exactly what Radio Shack and their personel does these days. The itulip crowd isn't J6P, even if you do represent many of the prior Radio Shack enthusists. Their business model has changed with the times. If they stayed with ham radio they would probably already be out of business. As you say, most 20 year olds don't even know what a ham radio is. Simple flashy Chinese electronic gimmicks are what consumer America wants and I bet the margins are solid in that type of business. Can it go on now that FIRE is toast? I don't know, but they do answer the basic questions J6P offers in my view and stuff him full of cheaply made shiny things to plug into other shiny things on his way out the door. If the itulip community represented the buying American public, I think most stores would be out of business.

[c1ue]

Re: The Dead Pool

Are analog copies legal in the US? As far as I know it's legal to record it that way here in Germany.
Like it was done via casette sharing in the 80's, I have a couple of mp3's converted from LP, for example.


I think Apple had nothing to do with the rise of illegal filesharing. In my opinion it was the rise of broadband and programs like Napster and later Bittorrent

Strictly speaking any distribution of a copy beyond yourself is not legal.

However, in practice it is very rarely enforced; the economics of distributing cassettes or even CDs is fairly prohibitive.

As for Apple not having anything to do with illegal filesharing - do you really think all those illegal copies are exclusively played on PCs?

Or is the PC merely the gateway to the iPod?

Again, Apple isn't the only one benefitting from this digitalization trend, but they absolutely are the ones capitalizing on it.

And who got the music industry to agree to this legal portal?

The point again is that this experience isn't going to be repeated by the video content owners, nor even the music content owners going forward.

[Wild Style]

Re: The Dead Pool

We have been long fans of Apple. The company's key differentiating strength -- integrated OS and hardware for high reliability and quality user interface -- were a hazard during the corporate PC boom but a boon during the consumer electronics boom.

That said, the consumer boom is over for a while. In what future markets will tight OS/hardware integration pay off?

Military? :eek:

The military started using more Apple computers because it is more secure/robust link