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  • China says lending to US will not go on forever

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081217...mychinausbonds

    BEIJING (AFP) – China warned Wednesday it would not keep lending money to the US economy indefinitely, even as new data showed it had consolidated its position as the top buyer of American government bonds.

    "China's increased purchase of US Treasury securities should not be interpreted as an endorsement of the assumption that the US can borrow its way out of the current financial crisis," the China Daily said in an editorial.

    The warning from the state-run newspaper, an English-language daily that mainly addresses a foreign audience, came after the US Treasury Department reported a steep increase in Chinese holding of US Treasury bonds.

    China held 652.9 billion dollars of US Treasury bonds at the end of October, up 11.2 percent from 587 billion dollars a month earlier, when China became the largest creditor ahead of Japan, according to the data released Tuesday.

    Japan remained in second place, with total holdings of 585.5 billion dollars at the end of October.

    The China Daily said that, given the global economic crisis , the consequences would be serious if China and other nations stopped channelling money into the US economy.

    "Interest rates in the US would rise to undermine that government's efforts to bailout distressed financial institutions and companies," it said.

    China was also constrained by a lack of other places to put its money, according to the paper.

    "With few options to invest its increasing reserves safely and profitably, China may thus have to buy more US Treasury securities in spite of growing domestic skepticism that such purchases may incur huge losses later," it said.

    However, as China and other nations help prop up the US economy, the United States should use the window of opportunity to undertake necessary reforms, the China Daily said.

    "The current strong foreign appetite should not be taken by the US government as solid proof of the long-term value of its Treasury bonds," it said.

    "Instead, it should race against time to undertake painful but critical reforms to revive its economy before such demand peaks any time soon."

  • #2
    Re: China says lending to US will not go on forever

    LOL...

    "I don't want to play this game any more. I might just take my marbles and go home..."

    "I think I will take my marbles and go home..."

    "Did you hear what I said? I'm going to take my marbles and go home right now..."

    "Really, I am serious this time. I will take my marbles and go home..."

    "Listen, I'm not kidding. Not this time..."

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: China says lending to US will not go on forever

      wholly sh*t these marbles are made of sugar and are melting!

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: China says lending to US will not go on forever

        full text:

        Keys to the Treasury
        (China Daily)
        Update: 2008-12-17

        With few options to invest its increasing reserves safely and profitably, China may thus have to buy more US Treasury securities in spite of growing domestic skepticism that such purchases may incur huge losses later.

        Besides the undesirable consequences that reducing purchases of US Treasury bills will have on global markets, it is also a bad idea to sell them before the world economy can restore stability.

        If creditors stop recycling the dollars they accumulated back into US, interest rates in the US would rise to undermine that government's efforts to bailout distressed financial institutions and companies.

        In a time of crisis, expanded government spending financed by foreign capital may be necessary to prevent the worst from happening.

        Yet, as more and more creditor countries introduce their own stimulus packages to boost domestic demand, the US government should not expect continuous inflow of more cheap foreign capital to fund its one-after-another massive bailouts.

        The current strong foreign appetite should not be taken by the US government as solid proof of the long-term value of its Treasury bonds.
        Instead, it should race against time to undertake painful but critical reforms to revive its economy before such demand peaks any time soon.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: China says lending to US will not go on forever

          China is about the have 40M people unemployed soon, and the last thing they need is to push on a string in the US...

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: China says lending to US will not go on forever

            If only they listern to Peter Schiff!
            Mike

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: China says lending to US will not go on forever

              Can they sell their US investments by a back door? I mean is there a way for them to get their money back without anyone noticing. Chinese civil servants are the best and brightest, if there is a way they will know about it.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: China says lending to US will not go on forever

                This is what Joe Stiglitz had to say in India on Saturday.

                U.S. exporting recession to the world, says Stiglitz

                Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz at the 10th D.T. Lakdawala memorial lecture on ‘Crises Today and the Future of Capitalism,’ in New Delhi on Saturday.

                NEW DELHI: Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz on Saturday urged India and China to use the G-20 forum to press for a change in the global financial architecture that has been so disastrous for the world.

                Describing the developed world’s decision to consult the G-20 as a positive outcome of the global meltdown, he was of the view that the two countries should also speak for the 152 countries which were not invited to the meeting.

                Delivering the 10th D. T. Lakdawala memorial lecture on ‘Crises Today and the Future of Capitalism,’ the noted economist said the problem – essentially a U.S. export – had to be tackled globally. India and China, he added, had not suffered much from the meltdown because they did not liberalise their capital and financial markets despite U.S. nudging the two countries in this direction “just so that you could experience what we did!”

                Arguing that every successful economy is a market economy, Professor Stiglitz pointed out that the problem lay in the way it evolved in the U.S. which privatised profits and socialised losses. “That is not capitalism,” he said, advocating a balance between the market and the government. Referring to the fear that too much regulation would stifle innovation, his counter was that a good regulatory system would actually encourage innovation.

                Globalisation, according to the economist, had failed primarily because it was based on a flawed economic ideology.
                .
                .
                .
                .
                .
                Further, he also said that he believed that the banks should have been allowed to fail, and a better use of the bailout money would have been to use it to capitalize the surviving, and new banks under better regulation, after the old ones had failed.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: China says lending to US will not go on forever

                  Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                  LOL...

                  "I don't want to play this game any more. I might just take my marbles and go home..."

                  "I think I will take my marbles and go home..."

                  "Did you hear what I said? I'm going to take my marbles and go home right now..."

                  "Really, I am serious this time. I will take my marbles and go home..."

                  "Listen, I'm not kidding. Not this time..."
                  Looks like someone is trying to warn us. Hopefully our leaders will pay attention.

                  The article also mentioned that your credit could impact your ability to get a job. Has any employer ever checked your credit before hiring you, and is that even legal?
                  Every interest bearing loan is mathematically impossible to pay back.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: China says lending to US will not go on forever

                    Originally posted by ricket View Post
                    Has any employer ever checked your credit before hiring you, and is that even legal?
                    Yes, if you work for a company with government contracts which require a clearance. One of the primary flags for getting a clearance is financial trouble.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: China says lending to US will not go on forever

                      Originally posted by ricket View Post
                      Looks like someone is trying to warn us. Hopefully our leaders will pay attention.
                      We're ready to pay up. Come get your US dirt with wood and stucco structures. I've personally offered, (right here on iTulip), large portions of Utah if the Chinese are ready to settle this debt.

                      http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...ebuyers21.html

                      As for a warning, I don't think so. We've got all the crap we need. We'll just sell it back and forth to each other on Amazon and eBay for the next twenty years. If they've got so much money they want to move, they can start bidding and buying or, there's always Utah.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: China says lending to US will not go on forever

                        The US just created $700B+ in new money for various bailouts. If China thinks anyone here is afraid of another $650B hitting the streets, I'd wager that they're sorely mistaken. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Bernanke and company think that would be a good thing!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: China says lending to US will not go on forever

                          Ladies and gentlemen here we have the Fed's Hammer Drill hard at work:

                          http://uk.reuters.com/article/market...29524820081222
                          BEIJING, Dec 22 (Reuters) - China's foreign exchange reserves, the world's largest stockpile, shrank in October to less than $1.89 trillion, their first monthly fall since December 2003, a source familiar with the situation said on Monday.
                          [...]
                          The reserves stood at $1.906 trillion at the end of September, the last date for which official figures have been reported, meaning they fell by at least $16 billion during October.
                          The source, who wished not to be identified, declined to say whether the reserves continued to fall in November. The only other month since the start of 2000 during which the reserves fell was Dec. 2003.
                          [...]
                          A fall in the reserves would mark a drastic contrast to their rapid accumulation over the past few years, as the People's Bank of China, in an effort to keep the yuan stable, has bought up many of the dollars coming into the country through the large trade surplus and inflows of foreign investment. The reserves rose by $280.6 billion in the first half of 2008 to $1.809 trillion. For all of 2007, they rose by $461.9 billion, compared with increases of $247.3 billion in 2006, $209 billion in 2005 and $207 billion in 2004.
                          In the third quarter of this year, the last period for which figures are available, they increased by less than the sum of the country's trade surplus and foreign direct investment inflows during that period -- a very rough benchmark for gauging whether the country has witnessed capital inflows or outflows.

                          Couple that with the last entry in Brad Setser's blog:
                          http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/12/...ght-to-safety/

                          This is getting hilarious ...

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: China says lending to US will not go on forever

                            Originally posted by Sapiens View Post
                            China was also constrained by a lack of other places to put its money, according to the paper.
                            Why can't China just spend its spare cash buying gold?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: China says lending to US will not go on forever

                              Originally posted by $#* View Post
                              Ladies and gentlemen here we have the Fed's Hammer Drill hard at work:

                              http://uk.reuters.com/article/market...29524820081222



                              Couple that with the last entry in Brad Setser's blog:
                              http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/12/...ght-to-safety/

                              This is getting hilarious ...
                              So much for the theory that China's petroleum imports were going to "collapse" after the Olympics...;) [Maybe that's where some of their foreign exchange is going?]

                              The headline says this...
                              China crude oil imports slump in November

                              but the article goes on to say this...
                              The world's second-largest oil user shipped in 13.36 million tonnes of crude last month, or 3.25 million barrels per day, official customs data showed on Wednesday, a 14.6 cut in daily volumes from October and 1.8 percent down on November last year of 13.61 million tons...

                              ..."Imports may remain anaemic in the coming months as demand is normally weak during the Spring Festival season, but the overall rate will stay positive," said Liu Youcheng, an oil analyst with Hongyuan Securities.

                              In the first 11 months Imports of crude oil and oil products stood at 164. 51 million tons and 35.22 million tons, up 9.5% and 13.1% year on year, respectively.

                              Economic activity is often slow and irregular during China's Lunar New Year holidays, which will begin on January 26.


                              "Oil filling (of government-owned tanks) was just a one-off factor and the strategic storage capacity was also limited," he said...




                              China’s Crude Oil Imports Total 16.16Mn Tons In October
                              China’s crude oil imports totaled 16.16mn tons (3.82mn b/d) for October, compared with 15.03mn tons in September, according to China’s General Administration for Customs (MEES , 20 October 2008). Despite the fact that China’s crude imports declined following the Olympics in August, the October data shows one of the highest monthly import totals for 2008.

                              Between January and October 2008, China imported a total of 151.2mn tons (3.645mn b/d) of crude.

                              Saudi Arabia is the largest supplier of crude oil to China, which imported 3.77mn tons (892,455 b/d) of Saudi oil in October and a total of 29mn tons (699,040 b/d) during the course of 2008. China imported 2.5mn tons (591,036 b/d) of crude from Angola in October and a total of 26.4mn tons (635,586 b/d) over the year. Iran is China’s third-largest crude supplier. Iranian crude imports totaled 1.76mn tons (416,000 b/d) in October and a total of 18.72mn tons (451,578 b/d) for the first 10 months of the year.

                              China exported 304,562mn tons (72,014 b/d) during October and a total of 3.1mn tons (74,757 b/d) during the year, most of which went to Japan, followed by the US and North Korea.

                              China Crude Oil Imports 2008 (Tons/Month)
                              2008
                              Total
                              Oct
                              Sep
                              Aug
                              Jul
                              Jun
                              May
                              Apr
                              Mar
                              Feb
                              Jan
                              Year
                              Imports
                              16.16
                              15.03
                              15.68
                              13.79
                              14.83
                              16.20
                              14.24
                              17.30
                              14.29
                              13.94
                              151.2
                              Mn B/D
                              3.82
                              3.67
                              3.69
                              3.25
                              3.61
                              3.81
                              3.46
                              4.07
                              3.60
                              3.28
                              3.64

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