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  • Auto Sector: No free lunch

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...quE&refer=home

    ... Ron Gettelfinger, head of the United Auto Workers union, knows that worker packages, which cost carmakers $74 an hour in wages and benefits, are way out of line with deflationary reality. But most of Gettelfinger’s proposals aren’t about slashing those packages. Instead, Gettelfinger is emphasizing plans for federal assistance to manufacturers, or federal cash to improve terms of auto loans. ...
    Just like the UAW, bank robbers usually want to keep their ill-got gains, even after the police have caught them red handed. Of course, the police, courts and the robbed banks have a different idea about where those illegal proceeds belong.



    The spy tries to kill the witness before he is exposed. The magician uses a pretty girl to distract from his slight of hand. The fog (or an artificial smokescreen) is used by the convoy to escape the hunter submarines. The frightened gorilla throws huge amounts of dirt in the air to hide his escape.


    All of these ploys (and many more like them) are used to avoid the moment of truth, rather than face it head on. They are also used to gain the upper hand, or to retain it beyond when you rightly should be passing the lead onto others.


    While there was great animosity between them, and neither side trusted the other, the Detroit 3 and the UAW appeased each other with union contracts with lucrative wages and benefits, year after year.


    If the hourly workers were making X% more, of course management was fully justified in rewarding their side with equal treasures, and even more.


    In effect, there was collusion between the Detroit 3's management and the UAW.


    There were other stakeholders who were severely affected, but had no say in these "sweetheart" deals among the antagonists. One stakeholder who was used and abused by this collusion and conspiratorial deals was the customer. Who was protecting the customer's interest?


    With great hypocrisy, before during and after each contract negotiation, both sides waved the American flag, and claimed to represent and defend the interests of God, windows & orphans, the consumer, and the American people in general. Yeah, right!


    Left to fend for themselves, a few brave customers protected themselves the only way they had left. They left the oligopoly owned by the Detroit 3, and went shopping for something else with a lower price, better quality, and more features.


    Once a path through the deep, dark forest had been blazed by the frustrated consumer pioneers, that path away from the Detroit 3 and leading to the foreign auto makers soon became an 8-lane super highway full of defectors traveling at top speed towards a warm welcome.


    The management of Detroit 3 and the UAW were locked into a costly wage death spiral, neither one willing to stop. They would let outside circumstance control the wage death spiral they had jointly created. Those outside forces and event may now be here.


    Both parties knew the risks of their dysfunctional, folie a deux behaviour. As with most obsessive-compulsive behaviours, mentally ill patients are unable to control their behaviours, no matter how crazy they know their actions to be. They just can't stop themselves. Family, friends, and the medical community have to stop them, and get them the treatment they need.


    For the Detroit 3 and the UAW, who should have acted as the family, friends, and medical community? To me, it seems natural that government should have played that role.


    It wasn't that the government was unaware. Numerous media, consumer advocates, industry insiders, and the public in general knew these actions by the UAW and Detroit 3 would not end nicely. They knew for more than 20 years. They were reminded repeatedly. Little or no effective action was taken by anybody to intervene in this craziness.


    Well, here we are, traveling at 100 mph just feet away from a head-on crash into an economic brick wall. Nice job! Thanks!


    What should have happened more than 30 years ago?


    Karl Marx defined "surplus value" as the economic engine of capitalism. To tie wages and benefits to anything else risks the decoupling or evaporation of the net surplus value at some uncertain future.


    As an example, Toyota provides its N. American workers with a basic, guaranteed wage. In addition, numerous bonuses can be earned by the workers for improvements in safety, quality, environment, productivity, and a host of other important issues. No results, no bonus. Achieve the reasonable goals, and you get your bonus.


    Secondly, the Japanese re-taught the current generations of Americans what previous generations of Americans had taught the Japanese: "You're only as good as your last improvement."



    The Japanese word Kaizen (continuous improvement) expresses this as a cultural imperative. This means no matter how good you are today, you can always get better tomorrow.


    No matter how far behind you are today, you will eventually catch your opponent if you accelerate (ie. improve) faster than they do. Once you are in the lead, your control your own destiny. As long as you continue your continuous improvement program, nobody can catch you, you will always be in the lead. Only if you stop or slow down your rate of improvement as compared to your competitors, will you lose. In other words, your competitors can't cause a win, but you can cause yourself to lose.


    In 2005, I did a study (available for free at http://info.pqa ) on the automotive industry and world-class manufacturers. This study demonstrated that high rates of improvement can be achieved, as high as 7.65% per year, every year, for more than 10 years. That's 2,090% improvement in productivity over a 10 year period.


    If the Detroit 3 and UAW had worked more co-operatively, with this shared vision, there would have been plenty of riches for all.


    Instead, we now have a fight to the death by millions of scrawny rats; each claiming ownership of the few remaining crumbs from a wasteful, hedonistic banquet that ended long ago.



    Would the Detroit 3 be in their current mess if they had achieved even a fraction of this world-class improvement rate that other manufacturing sectors have proven to be possible? I don't think so.


    So what do we do now?


    We wait for capitulation, or a bankruptcy, or an agreement by these deranged psychopaths to get treatment. Under previous rulings of the US Supreme Court, all union contracts are subject to re-negotiation or unilateral imposition of sanity by the courts. Alternatively, perhaps the "Car Czar" is just the ticket. Hopefully, both the Detroit 3 and the UAW agree to the imposition of binding arbitration by the Car Czar to set them straight, avoiding the need for a messy bankruptcy.


    Hopefully, the Car Czar closes the circle so that this generation of bickering Americans can learn from their American forefathers (just as the Japanese did decades before), that everything comes from improved operations, elimination of waste, making every decision as a steward for the customer, and looking forward three generations into the future.



    Every penny of wages and benefits, beyond the basic minimum wage, needs to be earned each and every day by real improvements. There is no free lunch, nor instant pudding. That's why they call it work.
    Last edited by Glenn Black; December 17, 2008, 11:49 PM. Reason: typos + clarity improvements

  • #2
    Re: Auto Sector: No free lunch

    Originally posted by Glenn Black View Post
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...quE&refer=home

    Just like the UAW, bank robbers usually want to keep their ill-got gains, even after the police have caught them red handed. Of course, the police, courts and the robbed banks have a different idea about where those illegal proceeds belong.



    The spy tries to kill the witness before he is exposed. The magician uses a pretty girl to distract from his slight of hand. The fog (or an artificial smokescreen) is used by the convoy to escape the hunter submarines. The frightened gorilla throws huge amounts of dirt in the air to hide his escape.


    All of these ploys (and many more like them) are used to avoid the moment of truth, rather than face it head on. They are also used to gain the upper hand, or to retain it beyond when you rightly should be passing the lead onto others.


    While there was great animosity between them, and neither side trusted the other, the Detroit 3 and the UAW appeased each other with union contracts with lucrative wages and benefits, year after year.


    If the hourly workers were making X% more, of course management was fully justified in rewarding their side with equal treasures, and even more.


    In effect, there was collusion between the Detroit 3's management and the UAW.


    There were other stakeholders who were severely affected, but had no say in these "sweetheart" deals among the antagonists. One stakeholder who was used and abused by this collusion and conspiratorial deals was the customer. Who was protecting the customer's interest?


    With great hypocrisy, before during and after each contract negotiation, both sides waved the American flag, and claimed to represent and defend the interests of God, windows & orphans, the consumer, and the American people in general. Yeah, right!


    Left to fend for themselves, a few brave customers protected themselves the only way they had left. They left the oligopoly owned by the Detroit 3, and went shopping for something else with a lower price, better quality, and more features.


    Once a path through the deep, dark forest had been blazed by the frustrated consumer pioneers, that path away from the Detroit 3 and leading to the foreign auto makers soon became an 8-lane super highway full of defectors traveling at top speed towards a warm welcome.


    The management of Detroit 3 and the UAW were locked into a costly wage death spiral, neither one willing to stop. They would let outside circumstance control the wage death spiral they had jointly created. Those outside forces and event may now be here.


    Both parties knew the risks of their dysfunctional, folie a deux behaviour. As with most obsessive-compulsive behaviours, mentally ill patients are unable to control their behaviours, no matter how crazy they know their actions to be. They just can't stop themselves. Family, friends, and the medical community have to stop them, and get them the treatment they need.


    For the Detroit 3 and the UAW, who should have acted as the family, friends, and medical community? To me, it seems natural that government should have played that role.


    It wasn't that the government was unaware. Numerous media, consumer advocates, industry insiders, and the public in general knew these actions by the UAW and Detroit 3 would not end nicely. They knew for more than 20 years. They were reminded repeatedly. Little or no effective action was taken by anybody to intervene in this craziness.


    Well, here we are, traveling at 100 mph just feet away from a head-on crash into an economic brick wall. Nice job! Thanks!


    What should have happened more than 30 years ago?


    Karl Marx defined "surplus value" as the economic engine of capitalism. To tie wages and benefits to anything else risks the decoupling or evaporation of the net surplus value at some uncertain future.


    As an example, Toyota provides its N. American workers with a basic, guaranteed wage. In addition, numerous bonuses can be earned by the workers for improvements in safety, quality, environment, productivity, and a host of other important issues. No results, no bonus. Achieve the reasonable goals, and you get your bonus.


    Secondly, the Japanese re-taught the current generations of Americans what previous generations of Americans had taught the Japanese: "You're only as good as your last improvement."



    The Japanese word Kaizen (continuous improvement) expresses this as a cultural imperative. This means no matter how good you are today, you can always get better tomorrow.


    No matter how far behind you are today, you will eventually catch your opponent if you accelerate (ie. improve) faster than they do. Once you are in the lead, your control your own destiny. As long as you continue your continuous improvement program, nobody can catch you, you will always be in the lead. Only if you stop or slow down your rate of improvement as compared to your competitors, will you lose. In other words, your competitors can't cause a win, but you can cause yourself to lose.


    In 2005, I did a study (available for free at http://info.pqa ) on the automotive industry and world-class manufacturers. This study demonstrated that high rates of improvement can be achieved, as high as 7.65% per year, every year, for more than 10 years. That's 2,090% improvement in productivity over a 10 year period.


    If the Detroit 3 and UAW had worked more co-operatively, with this shared vision, there would have been plenty of riches for all.


    Instead, we now have a fight to the death by millions of scrawny rats; each claiming ownership of the few remaining crumbs from a wasteful, hedonistic banquet that ended long ago.



    Would the Detroit 3 be in their current mess if they had achieved even a fraction of this world-class improvement rate that other manufacturing sectors have proven to be possible? I don't think so.


    So what do we do now?


    We wait for capitulation, or a bankruptcy, or an agreement by these deranged psychopaths to get treatment. Under previous rulings of the US Supreme Court, all union contracts are subject to re-negotiation or unilateral imposition of sanity by the courts. Alternatively, perhaps the "Car Czar" is just the ticket. Hopefully, both the Detroit 3 and the UAW agree to the imposition of binding arbitration by the Car Czar to set them straight, avoiding the need for a messy bankruptcy.


    Hopefully, the Car Czar closes the circle so that this generation of bickering Americans can learn from their American forefathers (just as the Japanese did decades before), that everything comes from improved operations, elimination of waste, making every decision as a steward for the customer, and looking forward three generations into the future.



    Every penny of wages and benefits, beyond the basic minimum wage, needs to be earned each and every day by real improvements. There is no free lunch, nor instant pudding. That's why they call it work.
    I appreciate your insights, Glenn. Harry Ried, the Democratic Senate Majority Leader, a few night ago was on TV saying that because the Senate had failed to act upon the bill that had cleared the House of Rep.s regarding the Detroit auto bailout that he hated to imagine what was going to happen on Wall Street the next market day (maybe that was from Friday to this past Monday), and when Monday came and closed nothing big happened to the downside in the DJI as a proxy.

    Do you have an opinion as to what might be the result if one or two of the Detroit 3 were to go bankrupt?
    Jim 69 y/o

    "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

    Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

    Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Auto Sector: No free lunch

      Originally posted by Jim Nickerson View Post
      Do you have an opinion as to what might be the result if one or two of the Detroit 3 were to go bankrupt?
      I bet you're glad to see me back jim. I have the answer:

      Nothing.

      The bond markets have priced in failure of all 3 companies. They are all insolvent and bankrupt. An official acknowledgment of that fact would kill the share price of GM, and likely Ford, and since GM is still a component of the Dow30, the dow would have a big hit, but the rest of the market would be relatively unphased by it. Everyone pretty much knows that most of the GM plants will still make cars and be put to use after a big shakeout/reorganization. This is priced into pretty much everything save the common share prices.

      Heck, the market might even rally on news that the Big 3 will be ridding itself of huge legacy costs, and the market might even anticipate a recovery and go up on the news.

      However in the sum total, nothing much would happen.

      Well maybe one thing. I could be wrong, but I understand that AIG has insured CDS's with the Big 3. We might be looking at another 30B bailout of AIG on this new loss... but since AIG is pretty much toast, I believe that is also priced in and wouldn't shake the markets as much, if at all.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Auto Sector: No free lunch

        Originally posted by DemonD View Post
        I bet you're glad to see me back jim. I have the answer:

        Nothing.

        The bond markets have priced in failure of all 3 companies. They are all insolvent and bankrupt. An official acknowledgment of that fact would kill the share price of GM, and likely Ford, and since GM is still a component of the Dow30, the dow would have a big hit, but the rest of the market would be relatively unphased by it. Everyone pretty much knows that most of the GM plants will still make cars and be put to use after a big shakeout/reorganization. This is priced into pretty much everything save the common share prices.

        Heck, the market might even rally on news that the Big 3 will be ridding itself of huge legacy costs, and the market might even anticipate a recovery and go up on the news.

        However in the sum total, nothing much would happen.

        Well maybe one thing. I could be wrong, but I understand that AIG has insured CDS's with the Big 3. We might be looking at another 30B bailout of AIG on this new loss... but since AIG is pretty much toast, I believe that is also priced in and wouldn't shake the markets as much, if at all.
        You'd win the bet, DemonD, I am glad to see your posts. You are a worthy contributor here, seriously.

        With GM at 4.37, I don't know how much it would affect the price input into the DJI calculation if it went to zero while everything else, for example, stayed at todays closing prices. I'm sure someone could figure that out, but not me.

        I wonder how long it will be before GM is taken out of the DJI. I guess it will happen, won't it?
        Jim 69 y/o

        "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

        Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

        Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Auto Sector: No free lunch

          Originally posted by Glenn Black View Post
          Just like the UAW, bank robbers usually want to keep their ill-got gains, even after the police have caught them red handed.

          The Japanese word Kaizen (continuous improvement) expresses this as a cultural imperative. This means no matter how good you are today, you can always get better tomorrow.
          I find this post simplistic to a fault, but the later portions are somewhat redeeming in that they support the idea of improvement through structural motivation. Were it not couched in the form of a demagogic tirade against the UAW, it might have value.

          The history and current status of the Big 3 is much more complex than the caricature of business good, worker bad or the corollary, and equally simplistic argument, management bad, worker long suffering.

          As a historical reference, here's an article from 2003 that in hindsight points to the current problem. And this article doesn't touch on the issue of management removing funds from an "overfunded" pension many years earlier. Highlights are mine, get out your hankies, it's a tear jerker.

          GM Erases Its Pension Fund Gap
          Joann Muller, 12.13.03, 7:06 AM ET

          DETROIT - Poof! As if with a magic wand, General Motors has erased the $17.8 billion gap it had in its U.S. pension funds a year ago. By the end of 2003, the No. 1 automaker says its retirement plan for U.S. hourly and salaried workers will be nearly fully funded. That's great news for investors, as it will cut GM's expenses next year by about 70 cents per share.

          There was no magic potion or sneaky accounting involved--just smart money management. So why, then, is GM (nyse: GM - news - people ) changing its investment strategy now?

          More on General Motors
          Tear Sheet

          Detroit's Pension

          GM's $17 Billion Bargaining Chip

          It's simple, really, says Morgan Stanley automotive analyst Stephen J. Girsky. "Once you get fully funded, the idea is to minimize the risk, so you don't go back and relive this nightmare." - Wow, how did he not figure this out for MS?

          GM's pension deficit, the largest facing any U.S. corporation, was a drag on the company's earnings and credit rating. With more than two retirees for every active worker today, (could that be the problem?), GM has been paying out about $6 billion a year in pensions, putting a strain on its liquidity.

          But thanks to the recent stock market recovery, along with a well-timed debt offering last summer, (um, that debt stuff is not so great today), the picture has improved dramatically.

          GM has contributed $14.4 billion to its U.S. pension funds so far this year, much of it from a recent $13.5 billion debt financing. It plans to contribute another $4.1 billion before the end of the year, assuming its pending sale of Hughes Electronics (nyse: GMH - news - people ) to News Corp. (nyse: NWS - news - people ) wins the necessary government approvals. News Corp. struck the deal for Hughes earlier this year after antitrust regulators refused to approve GM's earlier deal with EchoStar (nasdaq: DISH - news - people ).

          During 2003, GM earned a tidy 18% return on its pension fund assets. But in 2002, it lost 7% (still better than the equity markets as a whole, which were down 21%). Now that the plan is fully funded, GM's goal is to minimize that volatility to earn a consistent 9% a year. - (AH, there's a great plan, damn that UAW!) Historically, GM's pension assets have been split among the following investments: 55%-60% equities, 30%-35% bonds and 10%-15% other assets.

          GM's new strategy is to shift more of its pension funds into asset classes that aren't as closely linked to overall market performance. Instead, these investments would rely more heavily on active management--things like emerging market equity and debt funds, domestic high-yield bonds, small cap equities, real estate and private equity. (Damn you UAW you made me do this!)

          GM says the change will further diversify its pension portfolio while reducing global equity allocation to less than 50%.

          With the pension fund under control, GM says the next big issue is trying to whittle down the deficit in its health care fund for retirees, which stood at a whopping $54 billion at the end of last year. GM won't provide an updated estimate until January.

          But one thing's certain: GM is unlikely to use additional spin-offs such as Hughes to raise cash for retiree health care. Says Chief Financial Officer John Devine: "We're pretty much down to an auto company here, and that's what we plan to keep for the foreseeable future."

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Auto Sector: No free lunch

            It may be the end of life as we know it for quite some time.

            By themselves, bankruptcy of any of the Detroit 3 will cause a huge domino effect. I understand that all three are listed as one of the named risks on most CDS contracts. When they fail, they can cause or contribute trillions of CDS to be "in the money". AIG and others still claim that they won't have to pay on the majority of the CDS contracts they sold. Failure of one or more of the Detroit 3 may quickly change their minds on that issue.

            Anyone who is a supplier to GM is probably a supplier to another OEM (Ford, Chrysler, Toyota, etc.). The thousands of suppliers have been stretched from 30 days payables to 90 days payable by the Detroit 3 years ago. Today, the Detroit 3 are behind on even those extended terms. If the Detroit 3 go under, all of that will be lost. That will immediately put many of the Tier I suppliers (those that sell direct to Detroit 3) into insolvency, or close to it.

            If the Tier I's go insolvent, they can't pay their Tier II suppliers, and so on. Many of the Tier I, II, and III are good companies in good shape, in spite of poor business for many years. With the failure of one or more of the Detroit 3 will end that quickly.

            Because the supplier base is so integrated, it will be very difficult for anybody to build cars. The lost productivity and missed shipments will idle the JIT (Just In Time) production lines, similar to a rail or trucker's strike. The added expenses and reduced cash flow will hit everybody when they can't afford it. Lines of credit are stretched to the max, and this may do many of them in unless the nice bankers give them lots of slack. After all, the bankers have lots of cash sitting around doing nothing ;-)

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Auto Sector: No free lunch

              It will be interesting what will be said and not said as the bailout of Madoff investors is completed :-(

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Auto Sector: No free lunch

                This situation, and the Detroit 3 are extremely complex. Nobody fully understands it. To dig into it fully in a balanced way would be an encyclopaedia in size.

                While my previous post has focus on the UAW and the Detroit 3 management, this does not mean that the problem is only located here. However, they and their relationship have critical effects on driving this difficult situation to the edge of a big cliff.

                I am neither for nor against the UAW, nor the Detroit 3 management. I report as I have observed from my local observation post for the past 20 years in the industry. In my opinion, both of these groups have responsibility for what they did (and didn't do) for the past 50 years.

                As long as they did their foolishness in their own backyard, one could take a tolerant position, ignore them, or choose to short their stock, or trade on their peaks and valleys.

                However, when their financial sewage risks seeping into my well water, and the well water of everyone else on the planet, they must be stopped before they contaminate everybody & everything. An ounce of prevention or $ trillions of cleanup afterwards.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Auto Sector: No free lunch

                  While in favor of bailing the auto makers, I readily admit that it would be a stopgap measure that would amount to little more than a stay of execution.

                  IMveryHO, nothing will save the Big 3, or any other heavy American manufacturer, other than a complete overhaul of trade policies. I mean for all intents and purposes these 3 companies are being penalized for being in the market long term. There is no guarantee that the foreign makers will not reorganize and avoid legacy costs indefinitely.

                  I firmly believe that trade is a bare knuckles back alley brawl. It is not friendly, it is not mutually beneficial unless by chance, and it is certainly not something to leave to it's own devices. There are several issues I see as paramount to America reindustrializing and digging it's way out of this mess in a healthy way. The trouble is that ALL of these seem likely to start a trade war and make things worse in the short term.

                  Until America recognizes that VAT systems are an export subsidy and an import tax if for the nation so engaged in it we will remain behind the curve. Currently we allow this trade protectionism to go unaddressed. Further, a country refuses to float their currency on an open market is refusing to engage in free trade. Period. This needs to be addressed.

                  In addition health care costs are a HUGE part of any companies retirement plan. But since health care is nationalized in most of the countries we trade with and they impose an import tariff (VAT) on all goods we sell them WE in effect pay for THEIR health care. But we do not demand like consideration. And to make matters even worse we allow a private monopoly, the AMA, to dictate to the rest of the country how many doctors we will educate and license in this country. Does that make sense?

                  Wage arbitrage is a fact of life. It is going to happen regardless. But allowing other countries to engage in these kinds of trade policies inhibits our ability to maintain enough of a manufacturing base to allow this arbitrage to happen. Allowing $20/hour manufacturing jobs to go overseas and replacing them with $7/hour jobs as Wal-Mart greeters is not wage arbitrage, it is economic suicide.

                  I'm all in with the itulip thinking on what caused this mess and am not saying I am right on this particular issue where I differ from you. But I do think it is a bit much to insist that 'the market' has spoken in reference to our own industrial base withering when the game was played by different rules in different countries.

                  Will

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Auto Sector: No free lunch

                    It's really hard to read anything beyond that $74 number, since it's corporate propoganda.

                    Current workers make nowhere near that total. It's calculated by adding up all the salaries and benefits paid to current workers, plus the legacy pension and health care costs of retired workers, and then dividing the total by current workers. Anyone that uses that figure to demonstrate how greedy and responsible for this mess today's employees are is full of shit.

                    Are legacy costs a giant problem? Yes. I just don't think the way the subject is framed here is very helpful.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Auto Sector: No free lunch

                      Originally posted by WDCRob View Post
                      It's really hard to read anything beyond that $74 number, since it's corporate propoganda.

                      Current workers make nowhere near that total. It's calculated by adding up all the salaries and benefits paid to current workers, plus the legacy pension and health care costs of retired workers, and then dividing the total by current workers. Anyone that uses that figure to demonstrate how greedy and responsible for this mess today's employees are is full of shit.

                      Are legacy costs a giant problem? Yes. I just don't think the way the subject is framed here is very helpful.
                      I wonder if the UAW had [theoretically] agreed to accept absolutely zero compensation [wages and benefits] five years ago, would it have materially changed the outcome the Big 3 are facing today? These companies have been the prime example of "financials in drag" through the latter stages of the FIRE economy years.

                      I can't help but note that GM still sold one hell of a lot of vehicles in North America and worldwide, so somebody must want them. Is it really the type and quality of the vehicles they make, or high wages, or high legacy costs, that has suddenly done them in? Or is it actually subsidiaries like sub-prime internet mortgage lender Ditech.com, which is part of GMAC, that are contributing the most to the current stress?

                      To illustrate my point here's another "financial in drag" corporation that, as far as I know, has no involvement with the UAW. It has a range of businesses that make products that, from everything I have heard, are leaders in their individual segments and remain in high demand [unlike the much criticized products from GM/Ford/Chrysler]. And yet, just like the Big 3 automakers, this is a corporation that is in real danger of needing even more help from the US Government [taxpayer] than it has already [recently] received.
                      GE, GE Capital Ratings Outlook Cut to Negative by S&P
                      Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- General Electric Co., the biggest issuer of U.S. corporate bonds, has a one-in-three chance of losing its AAA credit rating in the next two years as earnings deteriorate, Standard & Poor’s said...

                      ...“The priority concern from our perspective are the earnings prospects of” GE Capital Corp...

                      ...“The institutional investors that really make the market for GE’s debt, they already know the level of risk, regardless of what you call it, AAA or AA+,” said Guy Lebas, chief economist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia. “They’re trading with yields that are not reflective of a AAA credit rating. That’s largely because the company has exposure to the financial world.” ...

                      ...GE Capital’s “earnings deterioration in 2009 and 2010 could be greater than we previously assumed,” S&P said in today’s statement. “The outlook revision reflects the continuing risks posed by GECC’s reliance on confidence-sensitive wholesale funding, despite the benefits of temporary U.S. government support programs and of management’s ongoing efforts.” ...
                      Now that the salad days of the FIRE economy are over, all the financials, including the financials in drag, are in trouble. It has less to do with unions, product mix, quality control, fuel economy, Japanese competition, etc. and more to do with management's past decisions as to how dependent the corporation would become on earnings generated from financial activities, compared with what was formerly [years/decades earlier] the core business(es).

                      Current management recognized this too late, although they did try to do something about their financial subsidiaries by selling off chunks to private equity. Cerberus [apt name that, eh ] bought 51% of GMAC from GM in 2006 and also controls Chrysler Finance.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Auto Sector: No free lunch

                        Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                        Now that the salad days of the FIRE economy are over, all the financials, including the financials in drag, are in trouble. It has less to do with unions, product mix, quality control, fuel economy, Japanese competition, etc. and more to do with management's past decisions as to how dependent the corporation would become on earnings generated from financial activities, compared with what was formerly [years/decades earlier] the core business(es).
                        For example:
                        GE, GE Capital Ratings Outlook Cut to Negative by S&P (Update5)

                        By Rachel Layne

                        Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- General Electric Co., the biggest issuer of U.S. corporate bonds, has a one-in-three chance of losing its AAA credit rating in the next two years as earnings deteriorate, Standard & Poor’s said.

                        “The priority concern from our perspective are the earnings prospects of” GE Capital Corp., S&P analyst Scott Sprinzen, who follows the finance arm, said in an interview. “And we know that they operate in a cyclical business, and that we’re in the midst of a cyclical decline. To some extent, that’s factored into the ratings. It seems that this is unfolding as an extraordinarily severe downturn.”
                        That's "Cyclical" with a capital "C" as in once every 70 years.
                        Ed.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Auto Sector: No free lunch

                          To pile on GE, I live in Louisville, Kentucky; home of GE consumer appliances and lighting. Home of the corp.'s name sake business.

                          GE was trying to ditch the consumer division for two important reasons. They could get real cash off of the sale and they could package ALL corporate liabilities into that sale. Liabilities such as the chromium and asbestos found all over their Appliance Park operation and GE LEGACY COSTS!

                          Appliance Park is, by the way, as large as many small towns in America. Ford's larger Louisville assembly plants that make trucks dwarf in comparison. Appliance Park is over a mile long and almost a mile wide. Ridiculously 1950's large and archaic.

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                          • #14
                            Re: Auto Sector: No free lunch

                            In 2006, GM had huge profits. If you dug deep into their financials, you would have found buried in the footnotes that car operations lost big time. GMAC however, made a fortune. Note that Wagoneer came up through GMAC and the financial end of GM. It wouldn't have been bad if GMAC had made the money putting people into the driver seat of GM vehicles. No, too good to be true. Where GMAC made their fortune was on home mortgages. Sound familiar? Guess why they are doing badly last year and this year? Guess why GM sold off half of GMAC? GM was junk bond rated corporate debt. They sold half of GMAC to the FIRE investors so GMAC borrowing can continue on at massive sums for low, low rates.

                            If the worst case comes true, exactly how will a bankruptcy court unravel all this spaghetti?

                            They won't. Or at least they won't in the time available. GM is bad enough as it is. Distraction of attention, loss of the excellent people who finally give up the good fight and flock off, the dead wood who burrow in deeper so they aren't spotted (if you're seen, you may lose your job), all of this will grind up the corpse of GM into hamburger. The trauma team will never be able to revive it and get it walking again, let alone running an Olympic marathon to win.

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                            • #15
                              Re: Auto Sector: No free lunch

                              GE is N. America's largest major appliance manufacturer. Parts & inventory have been cut to the bone. Dealers and independent applicance stores have been crying for inventory, shipping pieces to each other so they can make a sale, because GE has no inventory in warehouse. All of this to make inventory turns look impressive, as if they had implemented Lean, and to make their financials look great in preparation for the sale of the division. However, these managerial monkeyshines have cost them many sales to the competition. When Walsh was there as CEO, this crap wouldn't be tolerated. GE was the best of the best for many years, but the shine is off the apple for over 5 years now.

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