T-Bond Bubble Yet? 10 Year Yields 2.37%

[Joy]

Re: T-Bond Bubble Yet? 10 Year Yields 2.37%

I don't follow TLT. I trade CBOT contracts. The roll for Dec/Mar in US, TY, FV and TU were 32 ticks, 78 ticks, 98 ticks and 40 ticks respectively. Those are obscene rolls and are what it costs you to roll your short every quarter. So you better get your timing right or it will cost you.

[oddlots]

Re: T-Bond Bubble Yet? 10 Year Yields 2.37%

Just wondering if anyone knows of any vehicles that trade on Canadian markets for shorting long US treasuries for when the time comes. I'm aware of TBT in the US.

Horizons has an inverse etf: HTD

[santafe2]

Re: T-Bond Bubble Yet? 10 Year Yields 2.37%

Will Boomers who got out of the big bad market into "safe" long-term investments be surprised when the safest investment on earth isn't any safer than the last 5 bubbles?

About 9 months ago, I posted on iTulip my intention to begin shorting the UST. Fred moved that post to a thread called, I think, time at last to short US Treasuries. As one would imagine, this has not had positive results but as I said then, I'm a long term investor and I don't pretend to be able to time these long term investments. After 10 months I'm down ~13% and still investing monthly. Today I ask myself the same questions I asked then, how far down will I be if the 10 year note falls halves again to say 1% over the next 2 years before inflation begins to take hold? I'm comfortable with this investment in the long term but I'm certainly not sure how it will turn out.

Charts attached and comments/observations welcome:

10YearNote.jpg

RTPIX.jpg

[GRG55]

Re: T-Bond Bubble Yet? 10 Year Yields 2.37%

About 9 months ago, I posted on iTulip my intention to begin shorting the UST. Fred moved that post to a thread called, I think, time at last to short US Treasuries. As one would imagine, this has not had positive results but as I said then, I'm a long term investor and I don't pretend to be able to time these long term investments. After 10 months I'm down ~13% and still investing monthly. Today I ask myself the same questions I asked then, how far down will I be if the 10 year note falls halves again to say 1% over the next 2 years before inflation begins to take hold? I'm comfortable with this investment in the long term but I'm certainly not sure how it will turn out.

Charts attached and comments/observations welcome:

[ATTACH]896[/ATTACH]

[ATTACH]897[/ATTACH]

Looking out the credit markets would seem to offer better opportunities, risked, than the equity markets over the next year or two. Corporate credit spreads to T's already look pretty attractive [by historical standards], but I wonder if the eventual [inevitable?] backup in T-rates, combined with ongoing bad earnings and solvency news across the global economy in 2009, will drive investment grade corporates, across the board, to lows that seem unimaginable right now [just like today's ten year Tbond yield seemed unimaginable not that long ago]?

Maybe the strategy might be to short the T's on the retest after the first break, ride that for a while, and then try to screw up the courage to go long the best quality [most transparent financial statements] corporates at the point of maximum pessimism, for decent yield play and a chance for capital gains as the credit markets search for something more akin to a "normal" equilibrium in 2010 or beyond?

[santafe2]

Re: T-Bond Bubble Yet? 10 Year Yields 2.37%

Looking out the credit markets would seem to offer better opportunities, risked, than the equity markets over the next year or two. Corporate credit spreads to T's already look pretty attractive [by historical standards], but I wonder if the eventual [inevitable?] backup in T-rates, combined with ongoing bad earnings and solvency news across the global economy in 2009, will drive investment grade corporates, across the board, to lows that seem unimaginable right now [just like today's ten year Tbond yield seemed unimaginable not that long ago]?

Maybe the strategy might be to short the T's on the retest after the first break, ride that for a while, and then try to screw up the courage to go long the best quality [most transparent financial statements] corporates at the point of maximum pessimism, for decent yield play and a chance for capital gains as the credit markets search for something more akin to a "normal" equilibrium in 2010 or beyond?

Over many years of investing I've found that I'm better off to ignore my early impulses to buy, laugh about my missed chances and invest in those opportunities that persist in the wrong direction for longer than I thought possible. I'm too early to this dance but others will learn and make a killing in this market.

[Chris]

Re: T-Bond Bubble Yet? 10 Year Yields 2.37%

So, you're saying it's too early for TBT ?

It is too early, Raja. Besides, when it is time you will be able to get in to TBT. Maybe not at 30 or 40 but still in time to make some money. Gold is a much better play, IMHO. Get some of the gold stock rally but get out again before March if you really want to trade.

The "ASH" Disclaimer: I'm just some random guy on the internet offering free advice.